ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Looks like Grace is starting to get a lot better organized today. I would not be surprised if she ends up being our first major at some point.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Looks like Grace is starting to get a lot better organized today. I would not be surprised if she ends up being our first major at some point.
Agreed, but admittedly, Grace has had multiple occasions over the past few days where it has looked relatively healthy on satellite; however, there was not much to discuss at the surface. We'll see if that's the case again, but it certainly appears more healthy than it ever has been (aside from that one morning where it looked to be on the brink of some serious intensification, only to get decoupled). Going to have to wait on recon to confirm that, however.
Not a good sign for the Yucatan Peninsula and the western Gulf Coast if this thing can manage to avoid significant disruption from Hispaniola, like what it appears to be doing at the moment.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
She is the most impressive since her formation in the Western MDR


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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
The one thing I am definitely noticing that seems to be different than when Grace initially formed is the banding. When Grace formed, it looked like a vigorous blob, but in terms of organization, banding is something that is more important. I remember when Elsa looked very vigorous near Jamaica but was found to be very weak and with a high pressure; that too did not really feature good banding but was instead a very healthy looking round blob.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Air is destabilizing quickly in the W Carib
Seeing CAPE up to 4500
Seeing CAPE up to 4500
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5841/Qzrtrs.gif
Looks like shear may already be beginning to decrease. I see lots of cirrus moving towards the W and NW from the center now.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Why is there such a long period with no recon? Seems crazy.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
AerospaceEng wrote:Why is there such a long period with no recon? Seems crazy.
CoC is very close to land . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
So uh, ADT must be on some crack. It's got this as a T4.0 hurricane
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 AUG 2021 Time : 223020 UTC
Lat : 17:57:31 N Lon : 72:43:07 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 987.7mb/ 65.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.1 4.3

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 AUG 2021 Time : 223020 UTC
Lat : 17:57:31 N Lon : 72:43:07 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 987.7mb/ 65.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.1 4.3
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Sciencerocks wrote:https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5841/Qzrtrs.gif
Looks like shear may already be beginning to decrease. I see lots of cirrus moving towards the W and NW from the center now.
Looks like the two centers recon found much earlier are exiting Hispaniola.
Jamaica may consolidate the circulation, competing centers have been keeping the intensity down.
Then we can check the upper air forecast for shear and steering.
Someone said the large high that will be steering this west may center a little further east in response to pumping by Henri.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Weather Dude wrote:So uh, ADT must be on some crack. It's got this as a T4.0 hurricane![]()
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 AUG 2021 Time : 223020 UTC
Lat : 17:57:31 N Lon : 72:43:07 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.0 / 987.7mb/ 65.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.0 4.1 4.3


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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Is the Bay of Campeche ever not favorable for hurricane development during the season?
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
A. 07L (GRACE)
B. 16/2330Z
C. 18.0N
D. 72.8W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 2.0 BASED ON
A DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PT IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON
PT SINCE THE BANDING WAS NOT CLEAR CUT AND A PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...COVERDAL
B. 16/2330Z
C. 18.0N
D. 72.8W
E. THREE/GOES-E
F. T2.5/2.5
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...6/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.0. MET IS 2.0 BASED ON
A DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. PT IS 2.5. FT IS BASED ON
PT SINCE THE BANDING WAS NOT CLEAR CUT AND A PATTERN ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...COVERDAL
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Blown Away wrote:Is the Bay of Campeche ever not favorable for hurricane development during the season?
Yep last time was August 12, 1849
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Blown Away wrote:Is the Bay of Campeche ever not favorable for hurricane development during the season?
Not because of thermodynamics, that's for sure.
It was said that Harvey would have issues with dry air off of Mexico and it sort of did - briefly.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
So when's the next recon mission going out? It sure has been a while
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Weather Dude wrote:So when's the next recon mission going out? It sure has been a while
These recon gaps with Grace are so unusual for the NHC, and VERY unhelpful when the system is already so difficult to forecast. However, I think they might be avoiding recon due to how close Grace is to the really tall mountains of the Haitian peninsula.
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