ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#841 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Aug 16, 2021 11:44 pm

Very curious to see what recon finds. By just looking at it, I think Grace is no longer a TD; yes, looks can be deceiving, but how far off from reality can a Dvorak estimate get? I would guess a solid TS is what we have at this moment, although I am no expert, so I could very well be incorrect.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#842 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Aug 17, 2021 12:02 am

Looks like the barometer on the plane isn't working...

EDIT: Looks like it's working now
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#843 Postby Owasso » Tue Aug 17, 2021 12:21 am

Those 45kt FL winds should do the trick. Recon still hasn’t found the center either but I believe we will have a tropical storm on our hands at the next intermediate.
043900 1741N 07302W 9249 00794 //// +205 //// 134045 045 029 003 01
043930 1741N 07304W 9248 00794 //// +203 //// 137041 044 029 008 01
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#844 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Aug 17, 2021 12:47 am

Looks like a 40kt TS based on recon. I'm expecting an upgrade any minute now.

EDIT: Or 35kts
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Tue Aug 17, 2021 12:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#845 Postby ElectricStorm » Tue Aug 17, 2021 12:48 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM AGAIN...
...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 74.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#846 Postby Owasso » Tue Aug 17, 2021 12:48 am

And with Fred remaining a tropical storm for this advisory, we now have 3 named storms in the North Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#847 Postby tailgater » Tue Aug 17, 2021 1:04 am

Probably go need to up the winds in the 4 am adv. 55 seems reasonable with they are getting from SFMR
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#848 Postby tailgater » Tue Aug 17, 2021 1:05 am

tailgater wrote:Probably gonna need to up the winds in the 4 am adv. 55 seems reasonable with they are getting from SFMR
delete
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#849 Postby skyline385 » Tue Aug 17, 2021 2:39 am

Owasso wrote:And with Fred remaining a tropical storm for this advisory, we now have 3 named storms in the North Atlantic.


They form a nice triangle on the NHC map :D

Image
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#850 Postby Hurricane Mike » Tue Aug 17, 2021 2:40 am

I think it's possible that Grace becomes a more potent hurricane in the Western Caribbean than we are expecting. It's organizing and slowing down a bit.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#851 Postby skyline385 » Tue Aug 17, 2021 2:53 am

Hurricane Mike wrote:I think it's possible that Grace becomes a more potent hurricane in the Western Caribbean than we are expecting. It's organizing and slowing down a bit.


Well looking at last recon data, they couldnt find an actual center even though it has TS force winds, it still seems very disorganized and elongated.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#852 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Aug 17, 2021 3:59 am

skyline385 wrote:
Owasso wrote:And with Fred remaining a tropical storm for this advisory, we now have 3 named storms in the North Atlantic.


They form a nice triangle on the NHC map :D

https://i.imgur.com/4qehodP.png


I'll guess that the 3 systems are the 'Triangle of Trouble' :lol:
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#853 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Aug 17, 2021 4:13 am

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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#854 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Aug 17, 2021 4:18 am

2 Recon planes are heading towards Grace . . .

NOAA2 Mission #8 into GRACE


AF304 Mission #9 into GRACE


AF304 is still on the runway as of 4:07 AM CDT
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#855 Postby Kohlecane » Tue Aug 17, 2021 4:50 am

Kohlecane wrote:Grace and its Blobs, I think a southerly track might be more in the making. Thinking it rides between the Peninsula and Jamaica. :wink:

It looks like It is moving more WNW than W at the moment but we shall see when new recon gets in..
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#856 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 17, 2021 5:23 am

Looking at the radar from GTMO Naval Base, Grace is tracking WNW this morning, will miss going through the high mountains of Jamaica, if it keeps the current heading.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#857 Postby NDG » Tue Aug 17, 2021 6:28 am

Dropsonde by NOAA recon showed pressure down to 1006 mb.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#858 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:01 am

Looks like this is going to hit Jamaica, and it might be up to 45-50 kt now.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#859 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:44 am

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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#860 Postby Owasso » Tue Aug 17, 2021 7:47 am

Image
Looks closed to me.
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