ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Very curious to see what recon finds. By just looking at it, I think Grace is no longer a TD; yes, looks can be deceiving, but how far off from reality can a Dvorak estimate get? I would guess a solid TS is what we have at this moment, although I am no expert, so I could very well be incorrect.
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Looks like the barometer on the plane isn't working...
EDIT: Looks like it's working now
EDIT: Looks like it's working now
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Those 45kt FL winds should do the trick. Recon still hasn’t found the center either but I believe we will have a tropical storm on our hands at the next intermediate.
043900 1741N 07302W 9249 00794 //// +205 //// 134045 045 029 003 01
043930 1741N 07304W 9248 00794 //// +203 //// 137041 044 029 008 01
043930 1741N 07304W 9248 00794 //// +203 //// 137041 044 029 008 01
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Looks like a 40kt TS based on recon. I'm expecting an upgrade any minute now.
EDIT: Or 35kts
EDIT: Or 35kts
Last edited by ElectricStorm on Tue Aug 17, 2021 12:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM AGAIN...
...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 74.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS GRACE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM AGAIN...
...EXTREME HEAVY RAIN CAUSING FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
HISPANIOLA...
SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 74.5W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
And with Fred remaining a tropical storm for this advisory, we now have 3 named storms in the North Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Probably go need to up the winds in the 4 am adv. 55 seems reasonable with they are getting from SFMR
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
deletetailgater wrote:Probably gonna need to up the winds in the 4 am adv. 55 seems reasonable with they are getting from SFMR
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- skyline385
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Owasso wrote:And with Fred remaining a tropical storm for this advisory, we now have 3 named storms in the North Atlantic.
They form a nice triangle on the NHC map


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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
I think it's possible that Grace becomes a more potent hurricane in the Western Caribbean than we are expecting. It's organizing and slowing down a bit.
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
Hurricane Mike wrote:I think it's possible that Grace becomes a more potent hurricane in the Western Caribbean than we are expecting. It's organizing and slowing down a bit.
Well looking at last recon data, they couldnt find an actual center even though it has TS force winds, it still seems very disorganized and elongated.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Depression - Discussion
skyline385 wrote:Owasso wrote:And with Fred remaining a tropical storm for this advisory, we now have 3 named storms in the North Atlantic.
They form a nice triangle on the NHC map![]()
https://i.imgur.com/4qehodP.png
I'll guess that the 3 systems are the 'Triangle of Trouble'

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Winter 2020-2021

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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
2 Recon planes are heading towards Grace . . .
AF304 is still on the runway as of 4:07 AM CDT
NOAA2 Mission #8 into GRACE
AF304 Mission #9 into GRACE
AF304 is still on the runway as of 4:07 AM CDT
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Kohlecane wrote:Grace and its Blobs, I think a southerly track might be more in the making. Thinking it rides between the Peninsula and Jamaica.
It looks like It is moving more WNW than W at the moment but we shall see when new recon gets in..
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Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!
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This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looking at the radar from GTMO Naval Base, Grace is tracking WNW this morning, will miss going through the high mountains of Jamaica, if it keeps the current heading.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Dropsonde by NOAA recon showed pressure down to 1006 mb.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looks like this is going to hit Jamaica, and it might be up to 45-50 kt now.
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Re: ATL: GRACE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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