ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[SoupBone]

We should feel good in Texas now right? I don’t see any reason why it would come north with the mid level high blocking us! What has to happen for it to come more north?

You know the old saying, not until the system is inland and dissipated. I do feel better for sure, but until she starts making landfall somewhere, I'm still watching.

[Owasso]

Peaks at 80mph

[aspen]

The NHC stuck with 45kt at 11am, despite evidence for 50 kt. They’re not explicitly forecasting a hurricane in the WCar.

[TallyTracker]

The NHC stuck with 45kt at 11am, despite evidence for 50 kt. They’re not explicitly forecasting a hurricane in the WCar.

The 24 and 36 hour points are now forecasting hurricanes. The graphics were a bit delayed but now they’re showing correctly.

[Category5Kaiju]

Do we know if there are any towns or cities worth noting that could be in the path of Grace in Mexico?

[cycloneye]

Do we know if there are any towns or cities worth noting that could be in the path of Grace in Mexico?

Cancún and Cozumel are big resort areas and in BOC Veracruz.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Figured the NHC would up the intensity in the WCARB considering the day's trends.

BoC will be very interesting to watch. Could see something similar to Hurricane Karl (2010) or Alex (2010).

[GCANE]

Big area of high CAPE air south of Cuba developing in Grace's forecasted track.
Seeing values jumping up to 4500

[aspen]

Figured the NHC would up the intensity in the WCARB considering the day's trends.

BoC will be very interesting to watch. Could see something similar to Hurricane Karl (2010) or Alex (2010).

And like those storms, it will almost certainly not get retired, even if it’s a 130 kt landfall like one of yesterday’s HWRF runs. I still don’t understand how neither Alex nor Karl, both multi-billion dollar landfalling Cat 2/3s, were retired.

[Category5Kaiju]

Figured the NHC would up the intensity in the WCARB considering the day's trends.

BoC will be very interesting to watch. Could see something similar to Hurricane Karl (2010) or Alex (2010).

And like those storms, it will almost certainly not get retired, even if it’s a 130 kt landfall like one of yesterday’s HWRF runs. I still don’t understand how neither Alex nor Karl, both multi-billion dollar landfalling Cat 2/3s, were retired.

Roxanne did, which is even more confusing. I am not sure if there's a specific reason for it or what not, but Mexico seems to be more willing to retire EPAC hurricane names that hit it than Atlantic hurricane names. Oh yeah, and don't forget Emily 2005.

[EquusStorm]

Eh, I think way too many storm names are retired anyway, probably save it for historic super high end disasters that scar the memories for decades. Definitely some pretty high end potential in the BoC though.

[SconnieCane]

Figured the NHC would up the intensity in the WCARB considering the day's trends.

BoC will be very interesting to watch. Could see something similar to Hurricane Karl (2010) or Alex (2010).

And like those storms, it will almost certainly not get retired, even if it’s a 130 kt landfall like one of yesterday’s HWRF runs. I still don’t understand how neither Alex nor Karl, both multi-billion dollar landfalling Cat 2/3s, were retired.

Roxanne did, which is even more confusing. I am not sure if there's a specific reason for it or what not, but Mexico seems to be more willing to retire EPAC hurricane names that hit it than Atlantic hurricane names. Oh yeah, and don't forget Emily 2005.

Yeah, Patricia was retired although Emily was not. Of course it was highly noteworthy from a meteorological perspective (although so was Emily, being an Atlantic C5 in July), but it hit a very sparsely populated area.

[aspen]

The center looks to be just onshore. Recon is finding 55kt FL and SFMR winds, so the NHC’s current intensity estimate is likely a little conservative.

[Category5Kaiju]

But then you have Wilma, which devastated Cozumel as a 150 mph hurricane, and iirc Mexico did request Wilma to be retired.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The center looks to be just onshore. Recon is finding 55kt FL and SFMR winds, so the NHC’s current intensity estimate is likely a little conservative.

Those SFMR values are very likely contaminated due to shallow waters, IMHO.

[Sciencerocks]

[ScottNAtlanta]

Figured the NHC would up the intensity in the WCARB considering the day's trends.

BoC will be very interesting to watch. Could see something similar to Hurricane Karl (2010) or Alex (2010).

And like those storms, it will almost certainly not get retired, even if it’s a 130 kt landfall like one of yesterday’s HWRF runs. I still don’t understand how neither Alex nor Karl, both multi-billion dollar landfalling Cat 2/3s, were retired.

...or Emily 2005. Earliest Cat 5 in history of Atlantic Basin

[cheezyWXguy]

That band north of center is starting to pop off some good convection, it looks like the shear out of the north may be starting to wind down. If it can maintain this tight circulation after passing Jamaica, my bet is that the intensity forecast before the Yucatán is too conservative.

[aspen]

Oh boy, Grace has some nuclear grade SSTs in its path, especially in the western Gulf. The ceiling is very high depending on how the core fares following the interactions with Jamaica and the Yucutan Peninsula. As illustrated here, a track like the current NHC forecast will give it 36-42 hours maximum over water in both the WCar and BoC, but if it happens to go further north and through the channel...oh boy.


The MPI in Grace's path is some of the highest I've seen in the Gulf or basin overall.

[Category5Kaiju]

Well that's kind of troubling.