2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[captainbarbossa19]

Just to show how little we really know about what is going to happen, here is a tweet from experts around this time in 2017:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/899013298057818118




Remember what formed on August 30th that year?

[aspen]

Three active named storms -- one of which could end up as a major -- and an active wave train and a low ITCZ...quite an active look despite the SAL plume.

[Category5Kaiju]

The GFS shows a very active EPAC in the long-range = less active Atlantic

GFS really seems to believe in the American Standing Wave pattern that was dominant in the 80s and 90s, but considering how it has in recent times loved to blow up every cloud in the EPAC into a hurricane (with Linda the only storm it really predicted well in presence and strength so far), I personally would not put much stock into believing that to verify, let alone during a -ENSO, -PDO, and -PMM year.

[SFLcane]

Just to show how little we really know about what is going to happen, here is a tweet from experts around this time in 2017:

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/899013298057818118?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E899013298057818118%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fstorm2k.org%2Fphpbb2%2FEmbedTweet.html899013298057818118

Remember what formed on August 30th that year?

They’re are some similarities but the difference being that the Atlantic was a lot warmer that year. Which kind of made a flip inevitable. The MDR will be near average after this trade burst.

[AlphaToOmega]

If this SAL dust outbreak will affect anything, it will probably just be where storms develop. There was Saharan Dust when Fred, Grace, and Henri developed; they just developed in the Western Atlantic. If this SAL dust outbreak will affect anything, it will likely just shift development from the MDR to the Western Atlantic. The ITCZ has been pretty far south this year.

[Category5Kaiju]

2017 did have a warmer MDR, but 2021 looks to have a warmer subtropics and a warmer West Atlantic in general at about this same time of the year. Maybe this is an indicator of heavier W Atlantic activity this year than in 2017?

[WiscoWx02]

So much for the ITCZ being suppressed to the south this year

[Category5Kaiju]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/itf/itcz.jpg

So much for the ITCZ being suppressed to the south this year

Looks like we’re about normal…

[storminabox]

A lot of posts are make it seem like nothing has formed at all this month. There is plenty of activity out there now and Grace has the potential to be a pretty formidable hurricane. The season is still on track to be busy. This robust late August SAL event reminds me quite a bit of 2017. Once all the SAL from that outbreak was exhausted, there was not much left, and then the season went into overdrive. Who knows what will ultimately occur though; that’s what makes studying the tropics so invigorating.

[AlphaToOmega]

The SAL outbreak will not affect the Western Atlantic. Hurricane Harvey rapidly intensified in the Gulf of Mexico during the August 2017 SAL outbreak. Even if a wave does not develop in the MDR, it could still develop in the Western Atlantic.

[CyclonicFury]

A lot of posts are make it seem like nothing has formed at all this month. There is plenty of activity out there now and Grace has the potential to be a pretty formidable hurricane. The season is still on track to be busy. This robust late August SAL event reminds me quite a bit of 2017. Once all the SAL from that outbreak was exhausted, there was not much left, and then the season went into overdrive. Who knows what will ultimately occur though; that’s what makes studying the tropics so invigorating.

Not every year is like 2004 and has August major hurricanes in the MDR threatening the CONUS. August averages about 3-4 storms. So far this month 3 named storms have formed and there is still 2 weeks to go. 2 of the 3 storms look like they have a chance to become hurricanes, and the one that did not was a strong tropical storm that hit Florida. I remember similar comments in August of 2017, saying the MDR was unfavorable because Gert did well in the subtropics and Harvey struggled there. Even in hyperactive seasons, you can get breaks in activity due to intraseasonal variation, such as what we saw in late September in both 2005 and 2020. This season was never likely going to be as active as those years. We are only just entering the active part of the season. August 2018 was practically dead before September and October had Florence, Michael, and several other hurricanes that didn't threaten land. Irma did not form in the MDR until August 30, everything before that struggled. Global models haven't been particularly great with genesis this season either. We have a long way to go, and I don't see any reason to "season cancel" right now.

[Category5Kaiju]

A lot of posts are make it seem like nothing has formed at all this month. There is plenty of activity out there now and Grace has the potential to be a pretty formidable hurricane. The season is still on track to be busy. This robust late August SAL event reminds me quite a bit of 2017. Once all the SAL from that outbreak was exhausted, there was not much left, and then the season went into overdrive. Who knows what will ultimately occur though; that’s what makes studying the tropics so invigorating.

100% agree; it’s not like we are still waiting for Fred. If that were the case, then I can see where people could begin to doubt this season’s potential, but quite recently we literally had three storms active at once. Henri could genuinely become a hurricane and bears watching in New England, while Mexico must be on alert for Grace, which will be going over 30-31 C bath waters with extremely high UOHC. The West Atlantic seems more than favorable for potent hurricanes, and based on looking at the sst anomaly in the MDR for years like 1996, 1999, and 2003 and comparing them to this year now, nothing really seems to suggest that the MDR will be extremely hostile and dead for the rest of the season.

[captainbarbossa19]

So this is a video I found on Wikipedia that shows satellite imagery from August 10th until late September in 2017. This really shows how everything really got going after August 20th.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/Hurricane_Tracks_from_2017_with_Precipitation_and_Cloud_Data.webm

[Hammy]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/international/itf/itcz.jpg

So much for the ITCZ being suppressed to the south this year

Last few years have been quite a bit farther north than normal.

[Category5Kaiju]

So at this point I think it's safe to say that the "Fred 2.0" or the "Grace will dissipate and die over Hispaniola" comments earlier this week have aged like milk left under the Florida sun, unfortunately. If anything, Grace may very well take a decent shot at being the nasty, typical August major hurricane.

[Iceresistance]

So at this point I think it's safe to say that the "Fred 2.0" or the "Grace will dissipate and die over Hispaniola" comments earlier this week have aged like milk left under the Florida sun, unfortunately. If anything, Grace may very well take a decent shot at being the nasty, typical August major hurricane.

My thoughts when Fred was struggling: "If Fred can clear Cuba & regenerate back into a Tropical Storm, it will steadily get stronger because of the SST's but the Dryness & wind shear will limit it somewhat."

Grace: "Even though that Grace is a Tropical Depression, she has a good chance of getting stronger again, I've noticed that the OHC is high just west of Jamaica, if Grace manages to make it there as a Tropical Storm or even a Depression, she may explode into something really bad for Mexico. . ."

[Woofde]

2021 came very close to bumping into the climatology line. With Grace and Henri both looking like they'll be hurricanes the line is fixin to pull away quickly, atleast for now. Peak season is only a few days away.

[gatorcane]

The convection over Africa tonight is quite impressive, if anything, this should help to moisten the MDR for future waves

[Category5Kaiju]

The convection over Africa tonight is quite impressive, if anything, this should help to moisten the MDR for future waves

https://i.postimg.cc/fR4nGZrL/goes16-ir-eatl.gif

It probably will succumb to dry air, but boy is that wave giant. It's like Mega Mushroom Mario

[AtlanticWind]

I think we are headed for 10 or more hurricanes this season with Grace and Henri likely bringing our
early season total to 3 . I would expect a very active September and especially October with a either
a la nina or cool neutral. I dont think the mdr sea surface temps being average or even slightly cooler is
going to matter much.