ATL: HENRI - Models

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kevin
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#21 Postby kevin » Tue Aug 17, 2021 6:29 am

HMON shows what many already expected: Henri will most likely be a fragile system and will pulse up/down in intensity frequently. HMON for example takes 3 pulse periods until it finally consistently gets Henri above hurricane intensity at +36 hrs. After that it has its initial peak as a 982mb/85kt cat 2 at +42, followed by weakening and another sudden intensification into a 982mb/99kt cat 3 (unusually high pressure for such winds). However, HWRF is having none of it and keeps Henri as a TS until +60 hrs and even seems to bring it back to a TD after that.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#22 Postby kevin » Tue Aug 17, 2021 1:07 pm

Looks like HWRF's happy hour came early:

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#23 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 17, 2021 1:13 pm

kevin wrote:Looks like HWRF's happy hour came early:

https://i.imgur.com/PngWiES.png

Intensification resuming in this time frame isn't impossible. The NHC did say that some models were showing another decrease in shear at around 4 days out, and Henri would have the potential to intensify then. It would need to survive mid-week's onslaught of shear, however. The stronger it is, the more likely it'll survive, and the further west it'll get.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#24 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 17, 2021 1:16 pm

kevin wrote:Looks like HWRF's happy hour came early:

https://i.imgur.com/PngWiES.png


I actually don't think this is impossible. Remember Epsilon last year?
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#25 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 17, 2021 1:18 pm

No, bad HMON.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#26 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Aug 17, 2021 1:22 pm

Surprised the UKMET hasn't been posted here. Peaks it near 963mb in 5 days.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#27 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 17, 2021 1:37 pm

12z Euro wins for flat out worst initialization of the year & initialized the system as a 1012mb low.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#28 Postby pgoss11 » Tue Aug 17, 2021 4:28 pm

18z ICON just real interesting for New England
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#29 Postby Woofde » Tue Aug 17, 2021 4:32 pm

pgoss11 wrote:18z ICON just real interesting for New England
A left hook into New England happens a lot in models, but rarely in real life. Maybe if it consistently does it for a few runs I'll believe it.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#30 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 17, 2021 5:16 pm

The 18zGFS is near Cape Cod this run and right over Nantucket
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#31 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Tue Aug 17, 2021 5:16 pm

18z GFS is showing a much closer approach to New England.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#32 Postby pgoss11 » Tue Aug 17, 2021 5:25 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:The 18zGFS is near Cape Cod this run and right over Nantucket

I’m wondering if this is due to a stronger Henri coming more west. Later runs should be very interesting
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#33 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:04 pm

0Z GFS coming in a lot stronger and further south and west.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#34 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:06 pm

Eastern New England to Atlantic Canada need to keep close watch on this, the models are trending that way
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#35 Postby JtSmarts » Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:09 pm

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#36 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:12 pm

Definitely an eastern New England hit on the 0zGFS
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#37 Postby JtSmarts » Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:14 pm

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#38 Postby JtSmarts » Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:15 pm

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#39 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:30 pm


Looks almost identical to Bob in 1991
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#40 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 17, 2021 11:32 pm

Fortunately the GFS is very much an outlier in that scenario.
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