ATL: HENRI - Models

[IcyTundra]

ICON has shown a New England hit in a couple of runs the last few days along with a few of the members of the Euro and GFS ensembles. New England and the Canadian coastline should keep a close eye on Henri.

[Keldeo1997]

It doesn't help that GFS likes to underestimate ridge so NYC might need to watch out here

[IcyTundra]

0Z HMON has this getting close to Maine.

[Kohlecane]

I know it's just one ensemble but on that 00Z GEFS the one going into NYC Harbor, I couldn't even imagine, Got a lot of family on LI keeping an close watch on this. Even with a majority showing an OTS eventually.

[TheDreamTraveler]

6z gfs is another hit on new england. has it stronger before approach in the 960's but landfalls around 982mb still

[aspen]

06z GFS shows a Cat 3 hurricane while recurving, and the 00z HWRF shows a Cat 4 at around the same time and place. The possibility of this hitting New England means there’s a non-zero chance Henri becomes the first major hurricane to threaten the region since Bob.

Good thing I got a portable generator and had a bunch of trees cut down last summer.

[TheDreamTraveler]

06z GFS shows a Cat 3 hurricane while recurving, and the 00z HWRF shows a Cat 4 at around the same time and place. The possibility of this hitting New England means there’s a non-zero chance Henri becomes the first major hurricane to threaten the region since Bob.

Good thing I got a portable generator and had a bunch of trees cut down last summer.

Not sure if you just mean a hurricane but there hasn't been any major cat 3+ hurricanes in new england since the 1960s. But yeah last actual hurricane was bob in 1991

[Kohlecane]

I am not liking the 06Z GFS for NE's sake, One this run deepens it more to 964/965MB(high end Cat 2) paralleling the East coast. Also I noticed it dives it more south before the N turn.

[AlphaToOmega]

Right where I live

[TheDreamTraveler]

I am not liking the 06Z GFS for NE's sake, One this run deepens it more to 964/965MB(high end Cat 2) paralleling the East coast. Also I noticed it dives it more south before the N turn.

Yeah I noticed that too. The runs just keep going farther west. The stronger it gets the farther west it gets

[pgoss11]

Woke up to see the 06z GFS and I live only a few miles from Narragansett Bay so I’m definitely keeping an eye on future model runs.

[Iceresistance]

The 6z GFS is making me worried for the East Coast now . . .

Even if it does miss, it's getting closer to there . . .

[Kohlecane]

The 6z GFS is making me worried for the East Coast now . . .

Even if it does miss, it's getting closer to there . . .

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh6-162.gif

I'm just trying to figure out the dynamics at play from Hr 90-108 that cause it to take a jog NW the N before moving out. You can see the steering that grabs it and brings it NE along the E Coast, it's just between that time frame I put that it takes a very noticeable Leap NW almost like it wants to make sure I stop by LI,NY to grab a slice of pizza first!

[pgoss11]

The 6z GFS is making me worried for the East Coast now . . .

Even if it does miss, it's getting closer to there . . .

https://s5.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh6-162.gif

I'm just trying to figure out the dynamics at play from Hr 90-108 that cause it to take a jog NW the N before moving out. You can see the steering that grabs it and brings it NE along the E Coast, it's just between that time frame I put that it takes a very noticeable Leap NW almost like it wants to make sure I stop by LI,NY to grab a slice of pizza first!

I read that the uncertainty is in how deep the trough is in the eastern USA with a strengthening ridge downstream from Henri. So plenty of uncertainty but bears watching

[Kohlecane]

HMON pushing the limits on 74W with each run

[Kohlecane]

Im a very optimistic person, but HMON has been very persistent and one of the first few models showing this NE strike. But if what I just saw on the 6Z were to come to fruition that angle of approach to the NW as a decent Cat 1 with full moon in 5 days ->tides plus storm surge.. I don't wanna throw it out there but it would make Sandy look like a bad noreaster IMO

[Kohlecane]

Even the HWRF shifting more W than the 0Z, will be interesting to see what the 12Z and later runs show today as we are within a potential 5 day window. Also will recon make a mission now that this has more guidance of potential impact?

[TheDreamTraveler]

Even the HWRF shifting more W than the 0Z, will be interesting to see what the 12Z and later runs show today as we are within a potential 5 day window. Also will recon make a mission now that this has more guidance of potential impact?

HWRF is showing it getting really strong too..

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1427966347376570374

[TheDreamTraveler]

Here's another good example of the last time a hurricane hit new england...this site didn't even exist for another 10 years or so since the last time one did lol

[Owasso]