Tropical Wave WSW of Cabo Verde Islands

[cycloneye]

A new wave has been introduced just off the coast of Africa.

[Iceresistance]

Boy, this is a seriously impressive wave!

[kevin]

Perhaps this one will be this year's dreaded I-storm. And while it's foolish to already make long-term predictions now, I do think this is looking like a really strong wave. Could be trouble down the line.

[SFLcane]

This is some wave…

[SFLcane]

Probably will fizzle though due to SAL.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave was introduced along 20N
from 08N to 25N at 06Z. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt.
Increasing numerous moderate to strong convection is east of the
wave to inland the coast of Africa from 09N to 15N. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm west of
the wave from 07N to 15N.

[AutoPenalti]

Probably will fizzle though due to SAL.

It's a little south of the actual SAL surge so maybe it will survive.

[alienstorm]

There is a LLC SE of the cape verdes island

[somethingfunny]

It seems like it's too far north to make it all the way across - but we'll see how it evolves.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave was introduced along 21N
from 06N to 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Increasing numerous
moderate convection is from 05N-16N between and east of 24W to
the coast of Africa.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 22N
from 03N to 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 04N to 16N between 20W and 27W.

[sma10]

Lost most of its convection, but has a good spin.

The Euro and gfs have a ghost of a reflection of this wave in the Bahamas next week. Maybe something to watch

[abajan]

Lost most of its convection, but has a good spin.

The Euro and gfs have a ghost of a reflection of this wave in the Bahamas next week. Maybe something to watch

That convection over West Africa just might get wrapped into the circulation:

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W from
03N to 20N. It is moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen within 240 nm east of the wave axis
from 06N to 10N and within 300 nm west of the wave axis from
06N to 10N.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWD:

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W from
19N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 02N to 14N between 25W-35W.

[AlphaToOmega]

Euro ensembles want to develop this.

[Jr0d]

Seems like the models that develop this take it north as Henri creates a weakness in the ridge, though it appears to me there will only be small window for something to be pulled north and out to sea. Also if something forms further south than the models predict, I suppose it could miss the ridge entirely, or if it remains weak until it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

[AlphaToOmega]

The GEFS ensembles also develop this. Could this be Ida?

[captainbarbossa19]

Seems like the models that develop this take it north as Henri creates a weakness in the ridge, though it appears to me there will only be small window for something to be pulled north and out to sea. Also if something forms further south than the models predict, I suppose it could miss the ridge entirely, or if it remains weak until it approaches the Lesser Antilles.

It's too early to know for sure, but I think this is going to be another season where OTS storms are not frequent.

[floridasun78]

were i can see both ensembles you all talking about? ty