ATL: HENRI - Models

[Category5Kaiju]

I have relatives in Providence and Boston, and based on the modeling I told them to keep a close eye out

Clearly this isn't a typical US threat pattern you see every hurricane season.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The Euro remains an absolute mess with its initialization. Very unhelpful as the models that do initialize it properly are showing the possibility of a significant impact to the US.

[SoupBone]

Uhhh, did anyone see the latest GFS? WTH is going on?

[Category5Kaiju]

Uhhh, did anyone see the latest GFS? WTH is going on?

You mean, the 30 year hurricane direct landfall drought coming to an end? Yeah, this storm is most certainly worth the watch.

[SteveM]

Uhhh, did anyone see the latest GFS? WTH is going on?

My US geography isn't very good, but is that a cat 2 into NYC?

[SoupBone]

Uhhh, did anyone see the latest GFS? WTH is going on?

My US geography isn't very good, but is that a cat 2 into NYC?

Pretty much. I'm surprised the media hasn't picked up on this yet. I guess we need to see a few more runs for people to watch it more.

[tolakram]

The HWRF and GFS have never been wrong. Worth watching for sure, if we get some consistency with the model runs AND the storm develops as predicted than quite worrisome.

[SoupBone]

The HWRF and GFS have never been wrong. Worth watching for sure, if we get some consistency with the model runs AND the storm develops as predicted than quite worrisome.

Maybe my memory isn't quite as fresh as it used to be, but I seem to recall plenty of times where models showed these types of setups, only to change direction and never happen. Was Hurricane Sandy the last to hit that area of the country?

[tolakram]

The HWRF and GFS have never been wrong. Worth watching for sure, if we get some consistency with the model runs AND the storm develops as predicted than quite worrisome.

Maybe my memory isn't quite as fresh as it used to be, but I seem to recall plenty of times where models showed these types of setups, only to change direction and never happen. Was Hurricane Sandy the last to hit that area of the country?

Yea, and at the time the GFS did not show it, only the Euro did. GFS took forever to see the left turn.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm a regular watching of two retired pro-mets from the NYC/New Jersey area. These guys are old-level-handed hands who never hype anything. Last night on their YouTube show they said people had best keep a close eye on Henri given the possible setup.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/wXt6-EJ8Gms[/youtube]

Their Main Channel

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgbLhz8ataTPSMxkULKgNmA

[wxman57]

Shear continues until Friday when Henri turns NNE. Probably won't change much until then. Too early to say if it will have any impact on southern New England. Note that the GFS has been the worst performing track model for Grace and Henri so far.

Great website for tracking how models are performing: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/btang/tcguidance/

Henri: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/btang/tcguidance/al082021/

[Woofde]

Still doubtful of a New England landfall just because of history. The trend does speak for itself quite clearly though. All the major models have trended West on almost every new run so far. The ensembles have followed similarly.

[captainbarbossa19]

The new GFS run continues to show a hurricane heading towards Long Island. Looks like a ridge is preventing it from heading OTS.

[ColdMiser123]

New UKMET makes landfall in Cape Cod:

TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 29.9N 66.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.08.2021 0 29.9N 66.1W 1004 40
0000UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.7N 68.4W 999 51
1200UTC 19.08.2021 24 29.5N 70.6W 987 61
0000UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.5N 72.5W 983 63
1200UTC 20.08.2021 48 30.0N 73.9W 981 65
0000UTC 21.08.2021 60 31.3N 74.3W 976 68
1200UTC 21.08.2021 72 33.7N 73.2W 961 85
0000UTC 22.08.2021 84 37.4N 71.3W 960 81
1200UTC 22.08.2021 96 41.1N 70.2W 962 79
0000UTC 23.08.2021 108 42.4N 69.9W 986 46
1200UTC 23.08.2021 120 43.0N 68.0W 996 35
0000UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.4N 65.5W 1003 27
1200UTC 24.08.2021 144 44.2N 62.5W 1005 25

[tolakram]

12Z GFS. You can see the escape route, it's just a matter of timing. The GFS is bad at timing.

[ColdMiser123]

No doubt the chances of a direct impact to the US are higher today than they were yesterday. Yesterday I thought a <5% chance of a direct impact, today I'm thinking maybe 25-30%. Model consistency is key, and that's the third GFS run in a row to show something like this.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12Z GFS. You can see the escape route, it's just a matter of timing. The GFS is bad at timing.

https://i.imgur.com/k8NXEYE.gif

At least the GFS is initializing the storm correctly, unlike the "king".

GEFS trend over the last day has been distinctly west.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1428031769039753228

[ColdMiser123]

Many landfalls on the GEFS, even a cluster now into SNJ.

[AtlanticWind]

Based on the models I think we will another shift west by the NHC at 5pm . How much is the question.

[Kohlecane]

HWRF wants a high end CAT 3 200 miles E of Cape Hatteras