ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[Zonacane]

This leveling off was predicted though. It'll ramp again and make a cat 2 push tonight into tomorrow am. But yeah it is a bit too early in the season for a cat 4-5 here.

Unless it goes like Delta did in 2020, have a pinhole eye & compact core . . .

Totally realistic. /s

That did happen in reality tho

[psyclone]

The saving "grace" (sorry couldn't resist) for the Yucatan may be the system just running out of time before landfall. that brisk forward motion thanks to ridging to the north that has pinned the system to the south is also limiting its time over the maxed OHC content of the northwest caribbean.

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

The saving "grace" (sorry couldn't resist) for the Yucatan may be the system just running out of time before landfall. that brisk forward motion thanks to ridging to the north that has pinned the system to the south is also limiting its time over the maxed OHC content of the northwest caribbean.

Something later on is probably gonna take advantage of it if Grace doesn’t…hopefully not

[cycloneye]

Despite satelite images not looking so good, look at the structure. Boom. This pass was at 3 PM.

[aspen]

Despite satelite images not looking so good, look at the structure. Boom. This pass was at 3 PM.

https://i.imgur.com/Jec8rmd.jpg

Looks can be deceiving, it seems. Maybe the degradation of its satellite appearance had to do with the core re-structuring itself, and that new larger eyewall forming.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1428086645073584135

[wx98]

...GRACE EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...

5:00 PM EDT Wed Aug 18
Location: 19.7°N 83.7°W
Moving: WNW at 16 mph
Min pressure: 992 mb
Max sustained: 80 mph

[captainbarbossa19]

It looks like Grace is starting to look better now. It looks like the eye is trying to clear and the eye wall is reforming on the east side.

[Astromanía]

This thing looks so ugly

[wx98]

Something I’ve noticed on here and elsewhere is that when a new recon plane arrives after a few hours and finds pressures 8-10 mb lower (thus prompting NHC to issue an update to lower the pressure), everyone gets excited. This quick update (ex. from 1002 mb to 994 mb) leads many to start saying “rapid intensification the last couple hours” even though the truth is that it has been slowly intensifying over many hours (not rapidly). I even saw an inland TV meteorologist tweet that Fred was rapidly intensifying in the Gulf based on one of those recon missions, which it wasn’t (simply NHC correcting pressure in the next advisory). They pointed out a drop in pressure of I think 9 mb in one hour, which just wasn’t the case.

Now I see on this thread that it has just died because the excitement around a potential major hurricane landfall on the Yucatán has disappeared. Another thing is that I know most here who are throwing out the “bad news” and “hate to see this” type posts are secretly hoping this thing explodes. Because if not, why are most people here?

Just a couple observations…

[sikkar]

Batteling dry air? Does ventilation help with this issue?

[Iceresistance]

Uh oh, First pass is showing 988.6 MB Extrapolated

[Iceresistance]

First Pass Dropsonde on NOAA2 has measured 990 MB at the Surface in the eye . . .

[Nimbus]

The saving "grace" (sorry couldn't resist) for the Yucatan may be the system just running out of time before landfall. that brisk forward motion thanks to ridging to the north that has pinned the system to the south is also limiting its time over the maxed OHC content of the northwest caribbean.

It is moving fast enough that it will be past Cozumel before it goes above category 2 hopefully. And the HWRF is currently forecasting 966 mb's for the Mexican landfall.

[aspen]

990mb/10kt eye drop supports 989mb, noticeably lower than the last pass a few hours ago. Seems that the apparent dry air entrainment has not stopped Grace from deepening a bit, and with new hot towers forming and around 12 hours until landfall, it could get down to the low 980s/high 970s.

[IcyTundra]

Current trends make me think Grace will make a run for cat 2 just before landfall on the Yucatan early Thursday morning. Not sure if it will make it though not much time left over water.

[Iceresistance]

NOAA2 Pass #2, lowest Extrapolated Pressure is at 988.8 MB

[ElectricStorm]

Finally able to check in on Grace again. Looks meh on IR but appears to be strengthening still. Luckily it didn't bomb out.

[Iceresistance]

AF304 First Pass, lowest Extrapolated Pressure is 989.4 MB, but the AF plane is at a different height than the NOAA Recon plane . . .