2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[tolakram]

Not sure if this is the same wave, developing earlier, or not.

Euro

[IcyTundra]

To me the new storm the GFS shows making landfall at the TX/LA border later in the month looks like a CAG storm but I could be wrong.

[AlphaToOmega]

[gatorcane]

GFS invents a new storm. Not sure I believe this, but the EUro has an echo as well, just off the east coast instead.

https://i.imgur.com/q5JSz4V.gif

Crickets on the GFS ensembles

[Category5Kaiju]

GFS invents a new storm. Not sure I believe this, but the EUro has an echo as well, just off the east coast instead.

https://i.imgur.com/q5JSz4V.gif

Crickets on the GFS ensembles

GEPS ensembles think otherwise

[IcyTundra]

Long range GFS is showing a gulf storm for the 2nd run in a row towards the last weekend of August. Ensembles aren't showing much but it is certainly something to keep an eye on.

[AJC3]

Long range GFS is showing a gulf storm for the 2nd run in a row towards the last weekend of August. Ensembles aren't showing much but it is certainly something to keep an eye on.

The 00Z Op-GFS solution of a TC is the GOMEX in 8-10 days is a real head scratcher to me. If you look at its high-res H85 vort progs, It takes what appears to be the wave near the COA, and completely shears it out into a narrow E-W ribbon over the central Atlantic in about 2-3 days (Fri-Sat) . It then takes that strung out mess and whips it into the GA by around Monday, where apparently it combines with the topographically forced vort streamers near those larger islands to induce a wave or inverted trough over the SE GOMEX by Tuesday, which closes off over the central GOMEX on Wednesday. An interesting solution for sure, but it looks pretty skeezy IMO.

[AlphaToOmega]

The long-range GFS shows a Central American Gyre storm 270 hours out.

[SconnieCane]

The long-range GFS shows a Central American Gyre storm 270 hours out.

For some reason the GFS loves CAG storms (almost as much as EPAC storms), even during the heart of Cabo Verde season.

[CFLHurricane]

The long-range GFS shows a Central American Gyre storm 270 hours out.

Now it’s showing a Cat 2 creeping north toward western Cuba on September 3rd. This is one forecast to watch for consistency as we speed towards September.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Seeing quite a bit of GEFS support for a western GOMEX system around D10.

[MetroMike]

I am interested in anything that forms in the Caribbean that usually heads North and peaks the interest of Floridians.
We'll have to see if this is a trend or a one and done from the GFS.

[Cat5James]

I am interested in anything that forms in the Caribbean that usually heads North and peaks the interest of Floridians.
We'll have to see if this is a trend or a one and done from the GFS.

That signal has been there for at least 3 or 4 cycles.. but still far out in fantasyland… seems like more of an October style track as opposed to early September

[IcyTundra]

I am interested in anything that forms in the Caribbean that usually heads North and peaks the interest of Floridians.
We'll have to see if this is a trend or a one and done from the GFS.

From a climatological stand point that is more of an October type track, but it is still certainly possible as we have seen storm like Charley do that in August.

[MetroMike]

I am interested in anything that forms in the Caribbean that usually heads North and peaks the interest of Floridians.
We'll have to see if this is a trend or a one and done from the GFS.

That signal has been there for at least 3 or 4 cycles.. but still far out in fantasyland… seems like more of an October style track as opposed to early September

I'll take your word for it TBH have not been looking at the models much lately as its been blankety blank for several days for the most part with the exception of current systems which I couldn't care less about.

[gatorcane]

Something in the BoC/WCAR/Yucatan models are showing looks possible but doubtful it would head towards Florida since that would not be a climo-favored track not to mention the strong ridging we have seen lately.

[captainbarbossa19]

Something in the BoC/WCAR/Yucatan models are showing looks possible but doubtful it would head towards Florida since that would not be a climo-favored track not to mention the strong ridging we have seen lately.

Right. I think a track towards Mexico or the northwestern Gulf would be more likely concerning climatology.

[IcyTundra]

The GFS has been hinting at some possible development in the West Carribean/BOC/W GOM in the 8-10 day range for several runs in a row now. Had a couple runs past two days showing a landfall along the TX/LA border and the other run had it making landfall closer to SE LA. Today's runs show a disorganized mess in the BOC but the runs have still been showing a vorticity signature at the 850 MB level. This potential area of development has decent support from the GFS ensembles along with a couple members of the Euro ensemble showing development. Something to keep an eye on for sure.

[kevin]

Big blowup of activity in the WCar/GOM in GEFS next week.

[Jr0d]

Big blowup of activity in the WCar/GOM in GEFS next week.

https://imgur.com/PvLMl5G

Doesn't seem to like anything come off Africa until next week, even then not much popping over there.