ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[ColdMiser123]

Potentially significant, since short-term trends matter a lot with this storm for the long-term outcome.

The 0z BT coordinate of 29.8 degrees N is 0.2 degrees south of the 18z GFS 6 hour forecast, but matches up well with the 12z GFS 12 hour forecast.

The pressure with the 0z BT is also spot on with what the 12z GFS had for right now, but is 5 mb lower compared to the 18z GFS.

If this trend continues, the 12z GFS could be a better forecast overall compared to the 18z GFS.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kohlecane]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/1322/L56XTN.gif

This seems to keep wanting to move south, anyone have a consensus with the models rn on how far south they get it before a turn, or at least a mean.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though moderate wind shear is impacting this, has convection on three sides but not much on the west side

[PavelGaborik]

Certainly not the most impressive looking cyclone we've seen this year yet. As the poster above stated it appears to be battling some shear at the moment.

[aspen]

This current presentation and the levels of shear are expected. Levi has been mentioning that shear would pick up starting late Wednesday. However, shear will drastically drop down on Friday as Henri finds itself under the ridge instead of being blasted by it. This combination of low shear, very warm SSTs, and a better upper-level environment should lead to Henri re-organizing and finally becoming a hurricane officially.

[JWWS]

This current presentation and the levels of shear are expected. Levi has been mentioning that shear would pick up starting late Wednesday. However, shear will drastically drop down on Friday as Henri finds itself under the ridge instead of being blasted by it. This combination of low shear, very warm SSTs, and a better upper-level environment should lead to Henri re-organizing and finally becoming a hurricane officially.

I am not a weather expert. I am just a resident of the Northeast. I don't see what is so important about designating Henri a hurricane or maintaining it as a tropical storm. Does it really matter if the max winds are 72 or 75 mph? What matter is where Henri is predicted to go. In all my years of following tropical systems on this site and others, I have never seen a major storm get so little attention. NHS updates every 9-12 hours rather than every 3? No recon? This storm could hit major population areas and thousands of miles of beach communities in the height of vacation season, but.....crickets. Meanwhile, Fred and Grace were tracked every 1/4 mile and every 5 minutes. Frustrating.

[sikkar]

Nice discussion by Papin. Henri is a tough one to forcast.

[psyclone]

This current presentation and the levels of shear are expected. Levi has been mentioning that shear would pick up starting late Wednesday. However, shear will drastically drop down on Friday as Henri finds itself under the ridge instead of being blasted by it. This combination of low shear, very warm SSTs, and a better upper-level environment should lead to Henri re-organizing and finally becoming a hurricane officially.

I am not a weather expert. I am just a resident of the Northeast. I don't see what is so important about designating Henri a hurricane or maintaining it as a tropical storm. Does it really matter if the max winds are 72 or 75 mph? What matter is where Henri is predicted to go. In all my years of following tropical systems on this site and others, I have never seen a major storm get so little attention. NHS updates every 9-12 hours rather than every 3? No recon? This storm could hit major population areas and thousands of miles of beach communities in the height of vacation season, but.....crickets. Meanwhile, Fred and Grace were tracked every 1/4 mile and every 5 minutes. Frustrating.

Complete advisories are issued every 6 hours for all storms (5 and 11 eastern time). If coastal watches or warnings are up intermediate advisories will also be issued midway between each full forecast advisory (8 and 2 eastern). When a storm is on approach to landfall the NHC generally gives an hourly position update until landfall has officially taken place.

[IcyTundra]

This current presentation and the levels of shear are expected. Levi has been mentioning that shear would pick up starting late Wednesday. However, shear will drastically drop down on Friday as Henri finds itself under the ridge instead of being blasted by it. This combination of low shear, very warm SSTs, and a better upper-level environment should lead to Henri re-organizing and finally becoming a hurricane officially.

I am not a weather expert. I am just a resident of the Northeast. I don't see what is so important about designating Henri a hurricane or maintaining it as a tropical storm. Does it really matter if the max winds are 72 or 75 mph? What matter is where Henri is predicted to go. In all my years of following tropical systems on this site and others, I have never seen a major storm get so little attention. NHS updates every 9-12 hours rather than every 3? No recon? This storm could hit major population areas and thousands of miles of beach communities in the height of vacation season, but.....crickets. Meanwhile, Fred and Grace were tracked every 1/4 mile and every 5 minutes. Frustrating.

To be honest it is probably because posters that live in Florida and other states along the gulf coast significantly outnumber posters that live in the Northeast. Also a lot of people on this board stop tracking storms once it is clear it won't impact them as you could see with Grace after it became clear it wasn't a threat to Florida or the rest of the CONUS the activity on the thread fell off. I do find it odd that recon has not been out there yet but there has to be a reason for that.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1428204058171428871

[JWWS]

This current presentation and the levels of shear are expected. Levi has been mentioning that shear would pick up starting late Wednesday. However, shear will drastically drop down on Friday as Henri finds itself under the ridge instead of being blasted by it. This combination of low shear, very warm SSTs, and a better upper-level environment should lead to Henri re-organizing and finally becoming a hurricane officially.

I am not a weather expert. I am just a resident of the Northeast. I don't see what is so important about designating Henri a hurricane or maintaining it as a tropical storm. Does it really matter if the max winds are 72 or 75 mph? What matter is where Henri is predicted to go. In all my years of following tropical systems on this site and others, I have never seen a major storm get so little attention. NHS updates every 9-12 hours rather than every 3? No recon? This storm could hit major population areas and thousands of miles of beach communities in the height of vacation season, but.....crickets. Meanwhile, Fred and Grace were tracked every 1/4 mile and every 5 minutes. Frustrating.

Complete advisories are issued every 6 hours for all storms (5 and 11 eastern time). If coastal watches or warnings are up intermediate advisories will also be issued midway between each full forecast advisory (8 and 2 eastern). When a storm is on approach to landfall the NHC generally gives an hourly position update until landfall has officially taken place.

Thank you!

[Sciencerocks]

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/tropicswx/status/1428263261087014915

[SconnieCane]

Belize Radar have it coming ashore south of Cozumel.

Source - http://nms.gov.bz/sensors/radar-imagery/

https://nms.gov.bz/images/radar/400/latest_400kmpic.gif?t=1629365860

Wrong storm thread.

[Nuno]

This current presentation and the levels of shear are expected. Levi has been mentioning that shear would pick up starting late Wednesday. However, shear will drastically drop down on Friday as Henri finds itself under the ridge instead of being blasted by it. This combination of low shear, very warm SSTs, and a better upper-level environment should lead to Henri re-organizing and finally becoming a hurricane officially.

I am not a weather expert. I am just a resident of the Northeast. I don't see what is so important about designating Henri a hurricane or maintaining it as a tropical storm. Does it really matter if the max winds are 72 or 75 mph? What matter is where Henri is predicted to go. In all my years of following tropical systems on this site and others, I have never seen a major storm get so little attention. NHS updates every 9-12 hours rather than every 3? No recon? This storm could hit major population areas and thousands of miles of beach communities in the height of vacation season, but.....crickets. Meanwhile, Fred and Grace were tracked every 1/4 mile and every 5 minutes. Frustrating.

Yes, actually. Many of us are weather enthusiasts and we enjoy tracking storms for the scientific aspect of it, and whether forecasts will verify. Honestly, many people here enjoy tracking storms for a variety of reasons. If you are coming to S2k to make an informed decision about your preparation for a storm, you've come to the wrong place. You should follow NHC's advisories, which will update every 3 hrs once watches and warnings have been issued.

[aspen]

This current presentation and the levels of shear are expected. Levi has been mentioning that shear would pick up starting late Wednesday. However, shear will drastically drop down on Friday as Henri finds itself under the ridge instead of being blasted by it. This combination of low shear, very warm SSTs, and a better upper-level environment should lead to Henri re-organizing and finally becoming a hurricane officially.

I am not a weather expert. I am just a resident of the Northeast. I don't see what is so important about designating Henri a hurricane or maintaining it as a tropical storm. Does it really matter if the max winds are 72 or 75 mph? What matter is where Henri is predicted to go. In all my years of following tropical systems on this site and others, I have never seen a major storm get so little attention. NHS updates every 9-12 hours rather than every 3? No recon? This storm could hit major population areas and thousands of miles of beach communities in the height of vacation season, but.....crickets. Meanwhile, Fred and Grace were tracked every 1/4 mile and every 5 minutes. Frustrating.

To be honest it is probably because posters that live in Florida and other states along the gulf coast significantly outnumber posters that live in the Northeast. Also a lot of people on this board stop tracking storms once it is clear it won't impact them as you could see with Grace after it became clear it wasn't a threat to Florida or the rest of the CONUS the activity on the thread fell off. I do find it odd that recon has not been out there yet but there has to be a reason for that.

Recon is heading out later today, and flights will continue for the next few days.

[wxman57]

Henri definitely took a big hit from wind shear overnight. I'd say winds closer to 50kts than 60kts. I have the center passing very near Nantucket Sunday night as a TS. TS conditions eastern MA and coastal RI. Nearly to eastern Long Island.

[NDG]

Shear over the Henri over the next 36 hrs or so, then let the strengthening begin as shear changes direction and it heads parallel to it.
Then watch the Media histeria begin as if the NE US has never gotten hit by hurricane before.

[pgoss11]

Shear over the Henri over the next 36 hrs or so, then let the strengthening begin as shear changes direction and it heads parallel to it.
Then watch the Media histeria begin as if the NE US has never gotten hit by hurricane before.

In defense of all us weather weenies here in SNE…it’s been 30 years and we seldom get to track a tropical entity possibly threatening us.