ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

The newest center fix appears to be a tad north of the last one. Pressures remain around 988-989 mbar.

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

988mb/9kt this drop. Supports 987mb.

[aspen]

The eye is starting to pop out again on IR, and recon has found a slight pressure drop to 986.1mb extrapolated. Seems like Grace is going to have a last-minute burst of intensification before landfall.

[sikkar]

Any Mexican radars near site of impact?

[Yellow Evan]

Its small core/large windfield could easily be disrupted by the Yucatán and be in difficult position to re-organize.

[ElectricStorm]

Getting closer to the Yucatan. Only a few more hours to go before it gets there. I'm gonna guess Grace will reach her true peak in the Gulf. How strong that is will be determined by how intact the core is after making the trek across land.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[sikkar]

Last minute blowup, land friction for the rescue?

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1428265005661761545

[Chris90]

Well Grace made landfall about 15 minutes ago. Luckily she didn’t realize her full potential over the WCar, but it looks like she made landfall while probably intensifying based off what I’m seeing on IR. Looks as if a hot tower went up around the time of landfall and intensifying storms are worse than weakening/steady state ones, so even though she’s only a Cat 1, there’s a good chance she packs a punch. Hopefully those affected stay safe and don’t suffer too much loss.

Thanks for posting that tweet from Josh, Shell Mound, I don’t have Twitter so I rely on y’all for these.

[Nimbus]

65 MPH sustained winds with gusts to 84 MPH at Cozumel.
Pretty solid storm there.
00z models showing stronger storm at landfall south of Tampico possibly near Túxpam.
We don't have any storm2k members from there do we?

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1428297175956664321




iCyclone’s MSLP of 983 mb is a bit lower than the NHC’s official value of 986 mb at landfall, so I would expect the TCR to make adjustments.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/cnmetoficial/status/1428306713741074435



 https://twitter.com/Tropicalcyclon8/status/1428302147637039108



 https://twitter.com/MiradorQr/status/1428310407085797379




Translation: “This is how #Grace impacted Tulum this Thursday morning It made landfall at 4:45 a.m. pic.twitter.com/z2tWbIwSfH”

[aspen]

Looks like Grace will be back over open waters by 2-3pm EST today. The storm’s response to being over land for the next 7-8 hours will be critical in determining how strong it’ll get in the BoC. If it struggles and becomes anemic like the HWRF has been showing, a Cat 1-2 at landfall in Veracruz is most likely, with a slim chance of a major. Veracruz landfall could be around the same intensity as the Yucatán landfall if Grace really has a hard time. However, if it emerges in decent shape, a major is more likely.

[ChrisH-UK]

(From earlier, i posted it to the wrong thread)

Belize Radar have it coming ashore south of Cozumel.

Source - http://nms.gov.bz/sensors/radar-imagery/

[ChrisH-UK]

A weather station in Cozumel had a peak wind of 77mph and a pressure of 996mb. The station was about 40 miles north of the center of the hurricane.

Source Weather Undergroud PWS - https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IQUINT51

[beoumont]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1428297175956664321

iCyclone’s MSLP of 983 mb is a bit lower than the NHC’s official value of 986 mb at landfall, so I would expect the TCR to make adjustments.

Much of Talum is 40+ ft above sea level. I would suspect that chaser's "reading", per usual, needs to be adjusted upward. This time 1-2 mb.

[Teban54]

(From earlier, i posted it to the wrong thread)

Belize Radar have it coming ashore south of Cozumel.

Source - http://nms.gov.bz/sensors/radar-imagery/

https://nms.gov.bz/images/radar/400/latest_400kmpic.gif?t=1629365860

Seems like you posted the original image instead of saving it and re-uploading to an external site (like imgur). As a result, this image shows Grace further inland than when you first posted it, and in a few days people who look at this post will see nothing.

Refer to this post for how to post images.