2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[WiscoWx02]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1428359093786267650




Looks like VP anomalies will continue to favor the Atlantic. A lot more to the story than just VP anomalies though. What this doesn't tell is how much shear and dry air will be out there.





Quite a bit of shear still lingering around, with a ton of dry air out there too. Been making things difficult for the current activity to really take off despite a strong Phase 2 MJO. Shear has been the name of the game so far, perhaps because of the warmer than normal Nino 1+2 and subtropical Atlantic. Either way, shear and dry air 'should' go away in the next few weeks but most models don't agree, which is why they aren't showing squat. We'll have a better idea in a week or two for better or worse.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1428359093786267650

Looks like VP anomalies will continue to favor the Atlantic. A lot more to the story than just VP anomalies though. What this doesn't tell is how much shear and dry air will be out there.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/g16split.jpg

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Quite a bit of shear still lingering around, with a ton of dry air out there too. Been making things difficult for the current activity to really take off despite a strong Phase 2 MJO. Shear has been the name of the game so far, perhaps because of the warmer than normal Nino 1+2 and subtropical Atlantic. Either way, shear and dry air 'should' go away in the next few weeks but most models don't agree, which is why they aren't showing squat. We'll have a better idea in a week or two for better or worse.

What is happening now really reminds me of 2017. Grace and Henri remind me of Franklin and Gert. Franklin hit about the same area that Grace is hitting, and Gert was a storm that got going in the subtropics like Henri. Also, the late SAL outbreak is very reminiscent of the one in 2017. Once again, we will not have our first major develop until after August 20th. This season I believe is primed for something big towards the end of the month and September. Go back and look at the 2017 indicators thread if you want to see what I am talking about.

[Shell Mound]

Shear has been the name of the game so far, perhaps because of the warmer than normal Nino 1+2 and subtropical Atlantic.

I think these two factors will combine to prevent a significant rise in strong activity during climatological the peak of the season. So far the MJO has not helped.

[AlphaToOmega]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1428359093786267650

Looks like VP anomalies will continue to favor the Atlantic. A lot more to the story than just VP anomalies though. What this doesn't tell is how much shear and dry air will be out there.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/g16split.jpg

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Quite a bit of shear still lingering around, with a ton of dry air out there too. Been making things difficult for the current activity to really take off despite a strong Phase 2 MJO. Shear has been the name of the game so far, perhaps because of the warmer than normal Nino 1+2 and subtropical Atlantic. Either way, shear and dry air 'should' go away in the next few weeks but most models don't agree, which is why they aren't showing squat. We'll have a better idea in a week or two for better or worse.

What is happening now really reminds me of 2017. Grace and Henri remind me of Franklin and Gert. Franklin hit about the same area that Grace is hitting, and Gert was a storm that got going in the subtropics like Henri. Also, the late SAL outbreak is very reminiscent of the one in 2017. Also, once again, we will not have our first major develop until after August 20th. This season I believe is primed for something big towards the end of the month and September. Go back and look at the 2017 indicators thread if you want to see what I am talking about.

We had Harvey intensify in the Gulf during the SAL outbreak of August 2017. This SAL outbreak is unlikely to affect the Western Atlantic, and there is likely to be activity after around August 24. The ECENS ensemble has a wave developing on August 24-25. Something could also develop during the SAL outbreak because of the favorable MJO phase. Maybe the two will cancel each other out in terms of favorability. With the most favorable part of the August coming up, I could definitely see three additional storms form in August, one of those being a major hurricane.

[toad strangler]

Dry air isn't an issue what-so-ever in the western part of the basin where most of the activity looks to be.

[psyclone]

Shear has been the name of the game so far, perhaps because of the warmer than normal Nino 1+2 and subtropical Atlantic.

I think these two factors will combine to prevent a significant rise in strong activity during climatological the peak of the season. So far the MJO has not helped.

Could you elaborate? like the number of major canes you anticipate? Seasons in recent years have been very back loaded in terms of high quality storms...even last year was lagging in that department until very late. It seems reasonable that could be the case again.

[Shell Mound]

Shear has been the name of the game so far, perhaps because of the warmer than normal Nino 1+2 and subtropical Atlantic.

I think these two factors will combine to prevent a significant rise in strong activity during climatological the peak of the season. So far the MJO has not helped.

Could you elaborate? like the number of major canes you anticipate? Seasons in recent years have been very back loaded in terms of high quality storms...even last year was lagging in that department until very late. It seems reasonable that could be the case again.

I think that the rest of August and the whole month of September will be much slower than people expect, while October and November will be quite active.

[CyclonicFury]

Shear has been the name of the game so far, perhaps because of the warmer than normal Nino 1+2 and subtropical Atlantic.

I think these two factors will combine to prevent a significant rise in strong activity during climatological the peak of the season. So far the MJO has not helped.

It hasn't prevented two hurricanes in the deep tropics so far, nor has it prevented the Atlantic from having above-average ACE. Henri is also likely to become a hurricane this weekend, and Grace may still be yet to have reached its peak intensity. We've had Augusts far less active than this one, and still finished with above-average activity. Not sure why you are always so bearish on the Atlantic when the actual activity doesn't suggest the season has been or will be quiet.

[toad strangler]

I think these two factors will combine to prevent a significant rise in strong activity during climatological the peak of the season. So far the MJO has not helped.

Could you elaborate? like the number of major canes you anticipate? Seasons in recent years have been very back loaded in terms of high quality storms...even last year was lagging in that department until very late. It seems reasonable that could be the case again.

I think that the rest of August and the whole month of September will be much slower than people expect, while October and November will be quite active.

Nothing you have been saying has come to fruition. 2021 is way ahead of the storm total curve with obvious signs that late August into September will be active.

[AlphaToOmega]

I think these two factors will combine to prevent a significant rise in strong activity during climatological the peak of the season.

Did you see what happened in 2017? 2017 had a major dust outbreak in August, and Niño 1+2 SSTAs were positive for all of 2017; despite that, the season had Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose, Lee, Maria, and Ophelia.

So far the MJO has not helped.

Are we going to ignore the fact that three storms have formed in August so far as a result of the favorable MJO?

[EastNorCarWX]

I think these two factors will combine to prevent a significant rise in strong activity during climatological the peak of the season. So far the MJO has not helped.

Could you elaborate? like the number of major canes you anticipate? Seasons in recent years have been very back loaded in terms of high quality storms...even last year was lagging in that department until very late. It seems reasonable that could be the case again.

I think that the rest of August and the whole month of September will be much slower than people expect, while October and November will be quite active.

I mean, seeing as how we've had three named storms, a current hurricane and another one around the corner (Henri), this take isn't correct. The MJO is obviously doing it's job.

[NotSparta]

Shear has been the name of the game so far, perhaps because of the warmer than normal Nino 1+2 and subtropical Atlantic.

I think these two factors will combine to prevent a significant rise in strong activity during climatological the peak of the season. So far the MJO has not helped.

Hmm, I better head to the doctor. Must have imagined a TS and a hurricane in the deep tropics but it seems in reality there has been no deep tropical activity

[toad strangler]

Here's a bone to chew on for the bears out there as far as heading into actual peak season....

 http://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1428372094572761094

[AlphaToOmega]

Here's a bone to chew on for the bears out there as far as heading into actual peak season....

http://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1428372094572761094?s=20

The CFS always wants to get rid of the WAM. I am not buying that forecast for one second!

[toad strangler]

Here's a bone to chew on for the bears out there as far as heading into actual peak season....

http://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1428372094572761094?s=20

The CFS always wants to get rid of the WAM. I am not buying that forecast for one second!

I mean, we are talking the summit of the peak in this tweets time period. I'm pretty skeptical as well. Atlantic tropical Climo is on steroids in the 2nd week of September.

[WiscoWx02]

Shear has been the name of the game so far, perhaps because of the warmer than normal Nino 1+2 and subtropical Atlantic.

I think these two factors will combine to prevent a significant rise in strong activity during climatological the peak of the season. So far the MJO has not helped.

Hmm, I better head to the doctor. Must have imagined a TS and a hurricane in the deep tropics but it seems in reality there has been no deep tropical activity

Definitely cannot ignore Elsa and Grace forming, I agree with that. I do agree with Shellmound however that this could be a backloaded season. Sure we will see plenty of new stuff maybe not the end of this month but September for sure. But I think the real beef is going to be served in October. Been the new trend over the last several years IMO. I would even argue that the peak of last hurricane season was October and November, not September. Not saying September last year wasn't busy cause it was! However, I think October and early November took home the cake on peak activity, with all those major hurricanes. This year and last year are kinda similar as well in terms of present conditions. Just my take on it though.

[MarioProtVI]

I think these two factors will combine to prevent a significant rise in strong activity during climatological the peak of the season. So far the MJO has not helped.

Could you elaborate? like the number of major canes you anticipate? Seasons in recent years have been very back loaded in terms of high quality storms...even last year was lagging in that department until very late. It seems reasonable that could be the case again.

I think that the rest of August and the whole month of September will be much slower than people expect, while October and November will be quite active.

As if on cue it seems the downcasting is peaking today That sentence will age like milk.

[chaser1]

Dry air isn't an issue what-so-ever in the western part of the basin where most of the activity looks to be.

1,000% correct. During hurricane seasons primarily exhibiting favorable conditions, tropical cyclone genesis WILL typically occur where those conditions are particularly favorable to occur. Genesis will struggle to occur in those regions where conditions are marginal at best. Kinda head scratching to think that there's a few knowledgeable folks out there that hadn't figured that out over the years LOL. It's no wonder that long range GFS is suggesting potential additional GOM & W. Caribbean development at months end.

Think about it, most Atlantic seasons are plagued with "some issues" (ie: dry air, tepid SST's, strong westerlies, TUTT's, etc). Point is, those conditions partially define the type of season that occurred. None of those conditions erase those tropical cyclones that do develop or the regions impacted by them. For those bearish on the 6 weeks to come, look to those little spots where favorable dynamic conditions exist and recent history might also point too

[toad strangler]

Time to whip up AC/DC on the ol playlist .... HELLS BELLS (8/20 Dr. Gray BELL RING!)

http://youtu.be/etAIpkdhU9Q

 http://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1428469536244867077



 http://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1428467972734177281

[AlphaToOmega]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Aug 19 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Grace, located just offshore the Yucatan Peninsula in the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Henri, located
several hundred miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.

The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Post-Tropical
Cyclone Fred, located inland over Vermont and New Hampshire.

1. A tropical wave located in the eastern Atlantic several hundred
miles to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is
expected to interact with another wave emerging off the African
coast over the next day or two. Afterwards, environmental conditions
appear marginally favorable for some slow development by the
beginning of next week as this system moves gradually to the
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Fred can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT1,
WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Papin/Beven