This is taking quite a hit from shear, as expected. I agree with wxman that this is probably closer to 50 kt now, but we’ll know for certain in a few hours.
The LLC is becoming exposed on visible satellite imagery. Unlikely this completely decouples, however.
ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion Update= First mission by Air Force departs at 11 AM EDT
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion Update= First mission by Air Force departs at 11 AM EDT
Nothing unexpected. The HWRF yesterday did a pretty good job portraying Henri's appearance today due to shear. At one point I think the HWRF did completely decouple the system.
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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion Update= First mission by Air Force departs at 11 AM EDT
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hohnywx
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
From the 11 AM discussion:
Key Messages:
1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S.
on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain
impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island
are increasing. Watches will likely be required for portions of
this area on Friday.
2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of
the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.
Key Messages:
1. Henri is forecast to be near the northeast coast of the U.S.
on Sunday and Monday, and the risks of storm surge, wind, and rain
impacts in portions of southern New England and eastern Long Island
are increasing. Watches will likely be required for portions of
this area on Friday.
2. Swells from Henri will begin to reach much of the east coast of
the U.S. and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip currents.
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ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It only has one more day of the shear. Storms that buck the shear moving in a forced west direction almost always bomb out when the shear lessens. I expect that will happen in this case. Dont write this off yet by any means.
Looking at HRVS the shear vector is going to subside in around 6 hours I'd guess since you can see in about a degree and a half of longitude the cloud tops are blowing west more with the outflow
Looking at HRVS the shear vector is going to subside in around 6 hours I'd guess since you can see in about a degree and a half of longitude the cloud tops are blowing west more with the outflow
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
pgoss11 wrote:NDG wrote:Shear over the Henri over the next 36 hrs or so, then let the strengthening begin as shear changes direction and it heads parallel to it.
Then watch the Media histeria begin as if the NE US has never gotten hit by hurricane before.
In defense of all us weather weenies here in SNE…it’s been 30 years and we seldom get to track a tropical entity possibly threatening us.
My point was that is going to be treated like it has never happened before, just my bet, but it may not
It takes a lot for a hurricane to make it that way, not only warmer waters but special weather pattern and ridges perfectly in place for hurricanes to maket it that way straight from the south or SE otherwise they track over New England inland from the SW around the Bermuda ridge but of course in a much weaker state.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AF304 has lifted off from Florida. Fingers crossed it doesn’t have any transmission blackouts.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion Update= First mission by Air Force departs at 11 AM EDT
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1428367094844846083
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1428368259254865928
https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1428371381218168836
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CyclonicFury
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The latest ASCAT pass suggests maximum sustained winds of only around 35-40 kt. We'll have to see what recon finds. ASCAT does tend to have a low bias though.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion Update= Recon starting on Thursday
Iceresistance wrote:Homie J wrote:Iceresistance wrote:
I thought that Bob in 1991 made landfall as a hurricane over New England . . .
And Superstorm Sandy in 2012 as a Post-Tropical cyclone . . .
1991 is 30 years ago nowTorgo wrote:1991 was 30 years ago. I wish it wasn't, but it is.
It doesn't feel like that 1991 was 30 years ago, it felt like 18-24 years ago . . .
Ice....it was 30 years ago my friend...
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion Update= Recon starting on Thursday
underthwx wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Homie J wrote:
1991 is 30 years ago nowTorgo wrote:1991 was 30 years ago. I wish it wasn't, but it is.
It doesn't feel like that 1991 was 30 years ago, it felt like 18-24 years ago . . .
Ice....it was 30 years ago my friend...
When I calculate how long ago something has been I somehow always have this mental image that it's still 2012ish so 1991 only feels ~23 years ago. I'm only 22, but I already feel like I'm getting old
.
Last edited by kevin on Thu Aug 19, 2021 10:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion Update= Recon starting on Thursday
underthwx wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Homie J wrote:
1991 is 30 years ago nowTorgo wrote:1991 was 30 years ago. I wish it wasn't, but it is.
It doesn't feel like that 1991 was 30 years ago, it felt like 18-24 years ago . . .
Ice....it was 30 years ago my friend...
I know now . . .
Also, Henri is fighting off 30-35 knot Northerly Wind Shear impressively.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Sciencerocks
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Is anyone else having issues with loading most of the recon graphics for the AF304 flight on Tropical Tidbits?
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:Is anyone else having issues with loading most of the recon graphics for the AF304 flight on Tropical Tidbits?
si
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Once I see the REDS and GREENS Converge on a Base Velocity. ... I'm There!!
This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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This is NOT an Official Forecast....Just my Opinion. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
HIGHLIGHTS : '13 El Reno Tornado : 2013 Storm Chaser Tour, Joaquin; SC flood event, Matthew '16, Lowcountry Snow storm Jan '18
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wxman57
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:Is anyone else having issues with loading most of the recon graphics for the AF304 flight on Tropical Tidbits?
Found this place with plots: http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?basin=al&mapping=cesium
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Recon is at operational altitude, and the graphics on TT are finally loading.
I’ll predict they find a 45-50 kt/998-1003mb TS.
I’ll predict they find a 45-50 kt/998-1003mb TS.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:Recon is at operational altitude, and the graphics on TT are finally loading.
I’ll predict they find a 45-50 kt/998-1003mb TS.
999.9mb extrapolated. My pressure range was right. Now to see how strong the peak winds are. The LLC is also still underneath deep convection, albeit close to the northern edge.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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wxman57
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
No TS wind found NW of center. Pressure up to 1000mb. Shear will be peaking this afternoon/evening then decreasing tomorrow afternoon. This is not a 60kt TS, same as it was identified as yesterday. One or both of those values are wrong.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Tropical Storm - Discussion
50 knots, MSLP 1000mb looks right to me.
Henri is about to leave the area of peak shear, so I think now will be the worst it gets in terms of appearance.
Recon data should help the 18z set tremendously.
Henri is about to leave the area of peak shear, so I think now will be the worst it gets in terms of appearance.
Recon data should help the 18z set tremendously.
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