ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Henri has a nice structure despite the shear. I won't be surprised if he intensifies quite a bit and rather quickly once these inhibiting factors go away.

[Woofde]

That South Eastern quadrant looks pretty robust though. While not looking pretty right now, it won't take long under the future good conditions to quickly restrengthen.

[tolakram]

[wxman57]

that 58kt SFMR was flagged. Most reliable surface wind 47 kts 30-sec.

[CrazyC83]

50 kt seems like the best intensity estimate right now based on the data we are getting, unless stronger winds exist elsewhere.

[aspen]

The earlier ASCAT pass showed the strongest winds on the east side, to the NE of where recon has currently sampled. There could be slightly higher winds there.

90% FL-to-surface conversion gives an estimate of 50-55 kt.

[CyclonicFury]

Henri was likely a hurricane yesterday when it had a low-level eye feature that briefly became visible on satellite imagery. It still seems to be around ~50 knots despite the shear and the vertical tilt.

[Hammy]

I wonder if this may have missed it's chance to reach hurricane intensity operationally, and we see a drastic reduction in model output intensity once the data goes in.

[CyclonicFury]

I wonder if this may have missed it's chance to reach hurricane intensity operationally, and we see a drastic reduction in model output intensity once the data goes in.

Considering it seems to be holding up well despite the shear (with the recon fix indicating an eye was present), and the shear is expected to relax soon, I think Henri has a good chance to become a hurricane tomorrow night or Saturday.

[CyclonicFury]

AF plane recorded 61 knot flight-level winds, which supports an intensity of around 50-55 knots. There was a 53 knot SFMR value but it was flagged. That's much stronger than what ASCAT showed this morning (only peak winds around 35-40 knots). This seems to confirm ASCAT's low bias since Henri hasn't really improved in organization much since that time.

[SouthDadeFish]

The current Air Force flight is flying around 850 mb where the surface reduction factor is typically 80%.

[kevin]

Just the fact that Henri hasn't dissipated is already impressive considering it's in a 35 - 40 kt shear environment. The fact that it manages to remain roughly steady intensity-wise is even more impressive. Once shear lessens I think Henri could bomb pretty quickly. Hopefully (and probably) it will weaken again before it potentially reaches the US coast, but before then I think a high-end cat 2 or cat 3 is definitely on the table.

[grapealcoholic]

AF plane recorded 61 knot flight-level winds, which supports an intensity of around 50-55 knots. There was a 53 knot SFMR value but it was flagged. That's much stronger than what ASCAT showed this morning (only peak winds around 35-40 knots). This seems to confirm ASCAT's low bias since Henri hasn't really improved in organization much since that time.

They discussed ASCATs low bias in the 11pm discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Henri is doing a good job of not completely decoupling despite looking like a pancake.

[Woofde]

Just the fact that Henri hasn't dissipated is already impressive considering it's in a 35 - 40 kt shear environment. The fact that it manages to remain roughly steady intensity-wise is even more impressive. Once shear lessens I think Henri could bomb pretty quickly. Hopefully (and probably) it will weaken again before it potentially reaches the US coast, but before then I think a high-end cat 2 or cat 3 is definitely on the table.

It's very reminiscent of Paulette. The shear is both restricting development of solid structure and also aiding the system by ventilating it. Once shear abates it wouldn't be suprising to see Henri strengthening just like Paulette did.

[aspen]

998mb/18kt drop in the eye this pass, possibly supporting 997 or 996mb. The LLC has remained moving due west.

[abajan]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/_UDBNscDglI[/youtube]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Dropsonde was a little deeper.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1428439331803439105

[ScottNAtlanta]

This could keep the motion more wsw

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1428427877524115456

[aspen]

The second dropsonde was actually a little NW of the firth, so either Henri is starting its turn way earlier than expected, or it’s just a wobble caused by the LLC and MLC being offset.