2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

EPS beginning to perk up…

Looks like it’s 2 waves potentially first one recurves but the second one could be on a more westerly course.

[Steve]

GFS is still looking to punish Rhode Island with Henri. I haven't paid a whole lot of attention to it, but I feel like almost all the other models I saw back to when Fred was in the Caribbean had Henri pretty far east of even the Cape. But what's ominous about the GFS is the fantasy land storm it has coming straight from the WCAR on a NNW/NW heading. If it's ahead of the game, that's big trouble. Clearly I'm not married to 16 day model run solutions as no one should be.

Here's the 384 hour (16 days)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 906&fh=384

[Teban54]

EPS beginning to perk up…

Looks like it’s 2 waves potentially first one recurves but the second one could be on a more westerly course.

https://i.postimg.cc/5Nxf4gbK/A6-A8082-F-3-DF4-422-C-94-D8-4-E90-DD9-E04-A6.gif

TBH I seem to recall multiple instances of EPS (or was it other emsembles?) showing developments right off the African coast this year, only for the waves to die immediately after splash down in reality.

These two waves will potentially have better conditions than the earlier ones though, if SAL subsides by the time.

[AutoPenalti]

That first wave will likely help aid in dispersing the SAL for the second wave behind it.

[Jr0d]

Let's hope the GFS is in fantasy land at the end of the latest run showing a major storm in the Caribbean moving north towards Western Cuba.

Given it originates in the CAG, I do not think it is a likely solution, however the indications that the Northwest Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico will have something around Labor Day weekend is strong.

[CourierPR]

Let's hope the GFS is in fantasy land at the end of the latest run showing a major storm in the Caribbean moving north towards Western Cuba.

Given it originates in the CAG, I do not think it is a likely solution, however the indications that the Northwest Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico will have something around Labor Day weekend is strong.

https://i.ibb.co/XLkGQmq/Screenshot-20210819-111429.png

I see the date there is September 4. I don't think it would be unheard of to have a storm come north out of the Caribbean at that time. I recall Cleo in 1964 came north across southeastern Cuba and into the east coast of Florida in late August.

[Dean4Storms]

Let's hope the GFS is in fantasy land at the end of the latest run showing a major storm in the Caribbean moving north towards Western Cuba.

Given it originates in the CAG, I do not think it is a likely solution, however the indications that the Northwest Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico will have something around Labor Day weekend is strong.

https://i.ibb.co/XLkGQmq/Screenshot-20210819-111429.png

More of the GFS at war with itself between its 06 and 18z runs compared to the 00 and 12z runs.

[aspen]

12z GFS and ICON are showing possible subtropical development in the central Atlantic next Thursday/Friday.

[toad strangler]

12z GFS fantasy range again shows a strong cyclone coming up out of the S Caribbean but I strongly caution the validity of this as initial vorticity comes off the mountainous coasts of Columbia & Venezuela. A legendary spot that spits out spurious GFS storms.

[AutoPenalti]

12z GFS fantasy range again shows a strong cyclone coming up out of the S Caribbean but I strongly caution the validity of this as initial vorticity comes off the mountainous coasts of Columbia & Venezuela. A legendary spot that spits out spurious GFS storms.

Well, at least we know it's pumping out SOMETHING.

[Jr0d]

12z GFS fantasy range again shows a strong cyclone coming up out of the S Caribbean but I strongly caution the validity of this as initial vorticity comes off the mountainous coasts of Columbia & Venezuela. A legendary spot that spits out spurious GFS storms.

Well, at least we know it's pumping out SOMETHING.

Might be shifting from pumping out phantom storms in the EPAC to pumping out phantom from the CAG into the western Caribbean. Might be a signal that the EPACs season is winding down and the Atlantic side is about to start peaking as climatology suggests.

[SFLcane]

12z GFS fantasy range again shows a strong cyclone coming up out of the S Caribbean but I strongly caution the validity of this as initial vorticity comes off the mountainous coasts of Columbia & Venezuela. A legendary spot that spits out spurious GFS storms.

Well, at least we know it's pumping out SOMETHING.

That’s if you call something 300+hrs out something.

[AutoPenalti]

12z GFS fantasy range again shows a strong cyclone coming up out of the S Caribbean but I strongly caution the validity of this as initial vorticity comes off the mountainous coasts of Columbia & Venezuela. A legendary spot that spits out spurious GFS storms.

Well, at least we know it's pumping out SOMETHING.

That’s if you call something 300+hrs out something.

Hey even past 400 hours the GFS had nothing

[SoupBone]

12z GFS fantasy range again shows a strong cyclone coming up out of the S Caribbean but I strongly caution the validity of this as initial vorticity comes off the mountainous coasts of Columbia & Venezuela. A legendary spot that spits out spurious GFS storms.

I sorta forgot about this, but I do recall someone else saying it at some point. The GFS does have some history with spinning up phantoms that only get pushed back for development with each run.

[lsuhurricane]

We now have very good consensus at the 240 hr mark between GFS, Euro, and the CMC for a homegrown storm to develop in the Bay of Campeche as well as some sort of CAG generation.

We dont usually get that level of agreement until we're within the 72 hour range.

[wxman22]

Yep

[lsuhurricane]

12z EPS goes berserk with development after 196hrs in many areas. We've been warned......

[aspen]

12z CMC has both the Gulf/CAG system and a Caribbean Cruiser. The precursor wave for the latter emerges off of Africa on Sunday.

Lots of model support for a wide possibility of storms in the next 10-12 days — the CAG system, a recurving MDR system, a low-riding MDR system, another subtropics TC, etc. I’m thinking we could get up to six total NS this month, which is crazy for August.

[SoupBone]

12z EPS goes berserk with development after 196hrs in many areas. We've been warned......

https://i.ibb.co/j8DpbJY/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Tropical-Atlantic-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios.gif

I can't see your image. I wonder if it's being blocked by work.

[AutoPenalti]

12z EPS goes berserk with development after 196hrs in many areas. We've been warned......

https://i.ibb.co/j8DpbJY/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Tropical-Atlantic-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios.gif

I can't see your image. I wonder if it's being blocked by work.

Not the same but it gets the idea across.