ATL: HENRI - Models

[BobHarlem]

Pretty large shift left by the 18z HMON (From MA to LI) then it stalls over Connecticut.

[IcyTundra]

18Z HMON clips Eastern Long Island before heading into the Long Island Sound with a 2nd landfall near New Haven, Connecticut.

[aspen]

Pretty large shift left by the 18z HMON (From MA to LI) then it stalls over Connecticut.


https://i.imgur.com/bzie0Oj.gif

That’s the worst case scenario for me. Henri would be going right over my house.

[Kohlecane]

HWRF slightly more East at almost in in line with the 06Z just a tad faster on this run and weaker still Hurricane strength MV landfall

[BobHarlem]

HWRF Shifts very slightly to the right, gets a Chappaquiddick landfall. After this it basically stalls just west of Boston.

[ColdMiser123]

18z Euro is significantly west of 12z and much stronger, landfall just west of Martha's Vineyard.

[Hurricaneman]

18z Euro is significantly west of 12z and much stronger, landfall just west of Martha's Vineyard.

Basically similar to the HWRF

[BobHarlem]

All the usual 18z late models are in on landfall.

[ronjon]

We're getting close to the 72 hour window now with most models now converging on eastern LI to SE Mass landfall. And most now meander the storm northwest inland over southern new england after landfall for 12-24 hours. Boston looks like its increasingly likely to take a hurricane hit from the south. Flooding looks to be a major concern with the area already saturated from the remnants of Fred.

[wxman57]

New consensus (TVCN) is right into Newport, RI, well west of NHC's track. Look for a big west shift next advisory.

Date on left, CDT time on right:

[NDG]

Here's the 18z Euro.

[wxman57]

Here's a comparison between the new 00Z consensus and NHC's track. Numbers are date/time (CDT). 22/19 would be 1900 on August 22nd (7pm CDT). NHC typically follows the TVCN closely, so they'll shift left a bit but not all the way over to the TVCN. Maybe to Martha's Vineyard (Island west of Nantucket).

[ColdMiser123]

Majority of the 18z EPS members now make landfall in the Northeast, several make landfall as far southwest as Jersey.

[CrazyC83]

Majority of the 18z EPS members now make landfall in the Northeast, several make landfall as far southwest as Jersey.

That would be bad for New York City, but at least they are still outliers.

[ColdMiser123]

Majority of the 18z EPS members now make landfall in the Northeast, several make landfall as far southwest as Jersey.

That would be bad for New York City, but at least they are still outliers.

I was honestly surprised to see ~20% of the members over or west of NYC. Still strong odds that this hits east of NYC, at the same time this EPS cycle clearly shows the uncertainty still left with the trough interaction.

[ronjon]

If the 00z suite of models confirms what were seeing with 18z runs, I'd expect Hurricane watches going up tomorrow morning for the southern New England coastline.

[CrazyC83]

If the 00z suite of models confirms what were seeing with 18z runs, I'd expect Hurricane watches going up tomorrow morning for the southern New England coastline.

Agreed, and maybe even eastern Long Island if the trend continues westward.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1428532307892211714

[BobHarlem]

0z icon, another shift left, this time Block Island, RI then loops around in Connecticut Big surge east of there nearly guaranteed. Fox Point in Providence would get a test.

[IcyTundra]

00Z GFS: Slightly further west and 11 MB stronger at hour 48. Landfall on the East side of Narragansett bay