ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[ElectricStorm]

[Teban54]

https://i.imgur.com/pztI1W5.gif

Despite -60C convection wrapping the core, the latest VDM still shows no eyewall. My guess is the convection will help develop one soon.

[AxaltaRacing24]

https://i.imgur.com/pztI1W5.gif

Despite -60C convection wrapping the core, the latest VDM still shows no eyewall. My guess is the convection will help develop one soon.

It'll be there very soon.

[ElectricStorm]

https://i.imgur.com/pztI1W5.gif

Despite -60C convection wrapping the core, the latest VDM still shows no eyewall. My guess is the convection will help develop one soon.

The pressure hasn't really dropped much yet either but it should once that convection wraps around. It's pretty concerning how quick all that convection fired and started to wrap around the center. Just a few hours ago it didn't have much.

[Craters]

Has anybody looked at the low- and mid-level water-vapor loops lately?

Low: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-10-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Mid: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-09-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Could be a factor.

[ElectricStorm]

Anybody know when the next recon goes out?

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Grace Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
100 AM CDT Fri Aug 20 2021

...GRACE RE-STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 92.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

[AxaltaRacing24]

Grace really did hit the ground running. Not wasting any time.

[Yellow Evan]

Needs to wrap around deep convection and try to form a ring.

[Teban54]

Wow, that's some seriously deep and rather persistent convection with -90C cloud tops.

[kevin]

Looks like Grace noticed the hot waters, it's getting itself going. Will probably be continuous intensification from now on until landfall.

[kevin]

AF303 is on its way.

[aspen]

Oh boy, she’s starting to get that look. 31C SSTs are really doing their job. I think Grace will be a hurricane by the time recon arrives, and with about 18 hours until landfall, a major is a possibility.

[NotoSans]

92kt winds at 850mb level and 74kt SFMR winds. Clearly a 75kt cat1 hurricane.

[aspen]

92kt winds at 850mb level and 74kt SFMR winds. Clearly a 75kt cat1 hurricane.

Where do you see that? Tropical Tidbits hasn’t updated that recon flight.

[Teban54]

92kt winds at 850mb level and 74kt SFMR winds. Clearly a 75kt cat1 hurricane.

The NHC expected Grace to reach 75 kt only at 5pm EDT based on the most recent package. And to think Grace still has about 20 hours before landfall...

[SconnieCane]

Oh boy, she’s starting to get that look. 31C SSTs are really doing their job. I think Grace will be a hurricane by the time recon arrives, and with about 18 hours until landfall, a major is a possibility.

Inb4 anyone else says it...I was holding off until it really looked like it was going to intensify appreciably:

"She's beauty, she's Grace, she'll throw a tree in your face."

[kevin]

982.6 mbar ! First pass by recon, now also updated on TropicalAtlantic. Looks like Grace is back at hurricane strength and earlier than forecast by the already agressive HMON and HWRF.

Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure = 982.6 mbar
SFMR = 74 kt
Est. Sfc. Wind = 72 kt

[NDG]

Recon shows Grace is a solid Cat 1 now!

[kevin]

With incredible SSTs and MPI in the GOM as well as a lack of significant shear and the fact that Grace is already significantly stronger than expected, I think a MH just became a very realistic possibility.