Low Pressure west of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 97L)

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located in the eastern Atlantic several hundred
miles to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is
expected to interact with another wave emerging off the African
coast over the next day or two. Afterwards, environmental conditions
appear marginally favorable for some slow development by the
beginning of next week as this system moves gradually to the
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[floridasun78]

look like it out to sea area not going toward us

[aspen]

Seems like Ida could be an entertaining OTS storm that should hopefully impact nobody except the fish. I do hope we get something significant out of this, far from any land areas.

[AlphaToOmega]

Henri is creating a weakness in the subtropical ridge, so this has a real shot at recurving out to sea.

[AlphaToOmega]

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic several hundred
miles to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a
broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This wave is
expected to interact with another wave emerging off the African
coast over the next day or two. Afterwards, environmental
conditions appear marginally favorable for some slow development by
the beginning of next week as this system moves gradually to the
northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 32W south of 21N,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N to 15N between 30W and 40W.

.

[cycloneye]

They will interact.

A newly analyzed Atlantic tropical wave is just off the African
coast near 17W from 20N southward and moving W at 5 to 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N to 18N between the
African coast and 24W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W from 20N southward and
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 10N to 15N between 29W and 35W.

[AlphaToOmega]

Disorganized shower activity over the eastern Atlantic is
associated with a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands and
another wave to its west. Environmental conditions appear
marginally favorable for some slow development early next
week as this system moves to the northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 23W south of 23N,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 10N to 14N and between 20W and 26W.

A tropical wave is in the Atlantic Ocean along 37W south of 21N,
moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 04N to 11N and between 32W and 40W.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized shower activity over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
associated with a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands and
another wave to its west. Development of this system is becoming
less likely as it moves to the northwest at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized shower activity over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
associated with two interacting tropical waves near and to the
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little, if any, development of
this broad system is anticipated over the next couple of days.
However, some gradual development is possible later on by the middle
of next week as the system moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWD:

An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 28W from 22N
southward and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 24W and 32W.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized shower activity over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
associated with a broad area of low pressure southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Little, if any, development is expected to occur
during the next couple of days. Some gradual development, however,
is possible by mid-week as the system moves northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[cycloneye]

Disorganized shower activity over the eastern tropical Atlantic is
associated with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little, if
any, development is expected to occur during the next couple of
days. Some gradual development, however, is possible by the middle
to latter part of the week as the system moves northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[aspen]

A good amount of convection is firing, and there seems to be some spin to this. The ensembles and OP models that do develop this don’t do anything until it reaches the subtropics, but perhaps we see some surprise earlier organization like with Grace’s precursor.

[AlphaToOmega]

1. Disorganized shower activity over the eastern tropical Atlantic
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands is associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Little, if any, development is
expected to occur during the next couple of days. Some gradual
development, however, is possible by the middle to latter part of
the week as the system moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over
the central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[abajan]

From the 8 am TWO:

A broad low pressure system is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic more than 700 miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little development is expected
during the next couple of days due to only marginally conducive
ocean temperatures. Thereafter, however, some gradual development
is possible by the middle to latter part of the week while the
system moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:

A well defined tropical wave is along 35W, from 20N southward.
The wave is moving W at 10 knots. A 1011 mb low pressure is
analyzed along the wave axis near 13N. Disorganized shower
activity is associated with this low. Little, if any, development
is expected to occur during the next couple of days. Some gradual
development, however, is possible by the middle to latter part of
the week as the system moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over
the central Atlantic. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives
this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5
days. Recent satellite derived wind data provided observations of
fresh to strong winds on the E side of the low center.

[aspen]

The most recent CMC and ICON runs really like this disturbance, and have a named storm in the subtropics in 4-5 days. The 00z CMC gets some good ACE out of it.

[aspen]

This system appears to have some good potential to be a strong fish storm if it survives the next couple of days. Based on the 8am NHC forecast and all of the models that do develop this, the disturbance will reach and meander around in a region with 28-29C SSTs, including some pockets nearing 30C. This could easily become a hurricane as long as other atmospheric factors are favorable. While a late SAL plume will be an issue for the next few days, once it gets up to 25-30N, it should be out of reach of dry air.