ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Nice linear radial fingers in the cirrus on the whole east side of the CoC, including the northern portion.
Shear is dropping.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1428698357996851203

I was suspecting the same thing earlier when I saw how robust that titled MLC was on microwave imagery. This new developing hot tower could help relocate the LLC further SW and stack the system. There is a chance that, by delaying its turn north, Henri could miss the specific trough and upper high placement that would send it into New England.

[GCANE]

Nice Hot Tower firing off on the CoC.
Could be the start of eyewall building.

[msbee]

I feel like ABC, NBC, FOX, and CNN (you know, the major news organizations) won’t be covering this storm until tomorrow or so. Yeah, I do find it strange that there has not been much mention of this in major news

I have been watching all of the NYC stations and their weather people are all covering it.

[xironman]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1428698357996851203

I was suspecting the same thing earlier when I saw how robust that titled MLC was on microwave imagery. This new developing hot tower could help relocate the LLC further SW and stack the system. There is a chance that, by delaying its turn north, Henri could miss the specific trough and upper high placement that would send it into New England.

The H5 low south of Greenland does not really start to move east until Monday. That means locking the blocking ridge over the Maritimes, so no real escape until it goes away. Unless it goes waaay south.

[AlphaToOmega]

The GFS and CMC operational models take this to Rhode Island. The HWRF, HMON, and ICON operational models take this to New York and Connecticut.

[aspen]

Seems like a center reformation is happening, with a new LLC forming under the MLC and the old LLC becoming more exposed. The center seems to be jumping around based on recon; the latest fix is NE of the first.

[Woofde]

Almost in favorable shear territory. After that once Henri realigns, it could be some pretty fast intensification.

[GCANE]

Fix is a bit east of the last one.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[wx98]

Interestingly, 30 years ago in late October came the infamous Perfect Storm. The nor’easter retrograding southwest absorbed Hurricane Grace to its south and later became a subtropical storm itself. It then became fully tropical and attained hurricane status southeast of Cape Cod. It would have been named Henri but was left unnamed due to the extensive impact caused by the hurricane’s parent nor’easter.

[Blinhart]

So what is the heat potential from the Gulf Stream for this still developing system? Cat 2 or Cat 3?

[Blown Away]

Lots of action on the Henri IR loop.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Almost in favorable shear territory. After that once Henri realigns, it could be some pretty fast intensification.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20210820/3079a735c1cc5e68c31f50d2978b79db.jpg

More important...shear tendency is dropping

[Sciencerocks]

[Blinhart]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/2546/57VUHz.gif

So those in the Bahamas and West Coast are currently getting plenty of wave action, look out for the Northeast looks like he is starting to really get organized an still has the Gulf Stream to get over and follow for a while before going to landfall, could get a good bit stronger.

[ScottNAtlanta]

NHC says this is moving NW at 6kts...not sure I'm seeing that. With the center jumping around that would be a hard call

[TallyTracker]

https://i.imgur.com/ozhnSHy.gif

Lots of action on the Henri IR loop.

That looks like a volcanic eruption! With the CDO expanding north like that, it looks like shear is abating as others have mentioned. I’d guess Henri will be a hurricane by this evening about 12 hours before the NHC forecast.

[Woofde]

Hard to tell what's going on underneath, but that is a big burst of convection. Time to watch if it can wrap it up shear over where the LLC was shortly exposed.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like there is a new band setting up on the north side, but Henri might be experiencing some Mid-shear