ATL: HENRI - Models

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS, gets down to 967mb this time (near cat 3), then landfalls a bit further to the left, near MA/RI border.



Not posting the nam for obvious reasons, but it shows why you should never use it for hurricanes quite well right now.

[Woofde]

The 00z run should have full integration of both the upper air and storm structure data from the recon. Landfall looks very likely now compared to out to sea.

[IcyTundra]

With the trend of the 00Z model guidance further west watches are going to need to be issued at the 5 AM advisory as there is a little under 72 hours until Henri makes landfall.

[TheDreamTraveler]

So can anyone tell me why the UKMET has landfalled around NYC twice in a row now? Something about that is really strange to me. It's a pretty decent model too. Doesn't it share some with the euro?

[Kohlecane]

So for HWRF is almost dead on from the 00Z with the updated location, HMON is close but more realistic where I think the center is at currently from the 00Z IMO
HMON brings it over Fire Island into Babylon, NY(LI)
HWRF Into East Hampton, NY(LI)
we will see if these tracks keep moving for a LI landfall as opposed to RI/MA

[BobHarlem]

6z GFS slightly left, and weaker

[BobHarlem]

0z ukmet

[Kohlecane]

6z GFS slightly left, and weaker
https://i.imgur.com/2Lzy9xK.gif

Still pretty strong Cat 1 into Newport, RI

[hohnywx]

0z ukmet
https://i.imgur.com/b2eNl17.png

And it goes nw from there

[kevin]

06z ICON straight into Long Island with the eyewall/strongest winds in NYC . Is this a one run fluke or a pattern? More and more models seem to shift even further west.

[NDG]

A close up look of the 06z early models, not included the worthless TAB models which all still show an OTS.

[hohnywx]

A close up look of the 06z early models, not included the worthless TAB models which all still show an OTS.

https://i.imgur.com/f8bp16x.gif

More now showing that NW bend

[Kohlecane]

A close up look of the 06z early models, not included the worthless TAB models which all still show an OTS.

https://i.imgur.com/f8bp16x.gif

gathering what wxman57 said last night about TVCN/NHC tracking, I wouldn't be surprised if the Cone shifts to include N NJ and NYC with that TVCN shift into CT now as opposed to RI.(IMO)

[Kohlecane]

06ZHMON Cat 1 into JB/Babylon, NY second landfall Stamford, CT
06ZHWRF Cat 1 into Hampton Bays, NY second landfall Bridgeport, CT
NW movement on both

[xironman]

Sure it is HRRR but the shift in a six hour run is impressive. Maybe 50 miles west.

12z


6z

[kevin]

Considering that NYC might even be in play here based on the recent models, I looked it up and found that since hurricane tracking started in 1851 only 2 tropical storms have ever made landfall in NYC. They are:

1893 - #4 - Category 1 landfall (986mb/75kt)
2011 - Irene - TS landfall (965mb/55kt)

Other even older landfalling tropical storms in NYC are the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane and possibly a pre-Columbian hurricane around the 13th century. What I'm trying to say is that a TS landfall or a hurricane landfall in NYC is a 'once in a century' event or so, just the fact that it's a possibility now is already exceptionally rare. Hopefully it won't happen considering the population density there. Eerily the 1893 #4 hurricane made landfall on the 24th of August, Irene on the 27th of August and Henri is forecast to make landfall on the 22nd of August. Seems like the 3rd week of August is the 'danger week' for NYC.

[SconnieCane]

Considering that NYC might even be in play here based on the recent models, I looked it up and found that since hurricane tracking started in 1851 only 2 tropical storms have ever made landfall in NYC. They are:

1893 - #4 - Category 1 landfall (986mb/75kt)
2011 - Irene - TS landfall (965mb/55kt)

Other even older landfalling tropical storms in NYC are the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane and possibly a pre-Columbian hurricane around the 13th century. What I'm trying to say is that a TS landfall or a hurricane landfall in NYC is a 'once in a century' event or so, just the fact that it's a possibility now is already exceptionally rare. Hopefully it won't happen considering the population density there. Eerily the 1893 #4 hurricane made landfall on the 24th of August, Irene on the 27th of August and Henri is forecast to make landfall on the 22nd of August. Seems like the 3rd week of August is the 'danger week' for NYC.

Irene at its NY landfall was yet another example of a sprawling system with winds much weaker than what would be expected for its pressure due to the broad gradient. For comparison, the compact Charley was 130kt at 941 MB, and Grace as of last advisory is 75kt at 983 MB.

[Blinhart]

Considering that NYC might even be in play here based on the recent models, I looked it up and found that since hurricane tracking started in 1851 only 2 tropical storms have ever made landfall in NYC. They are:

1893 - #4 - Category 1 landfall (986mb/75kt)
2011 - Irene - TS landfall (965mb/55kt)

Other even older landfalling tropical storms in NYC are the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane and possibly a pre-Columbian hurricane around the 13th century. What I'm trying to say is that a TS landfall or a hurricane landfall in NYC is a 'once in a century' event or so, just the fact that it's a possibility now is already exceptionally rare. Hopefully it won't happen considering the population density there. Eerily the 1893 #4 hurricane made landfall on the 24th of August, Irene on the 27th of August and Henri is forecast to make landfall on the 22nd of August. Seems like the 3rd week of August is the 'danger week' for NYC.

Irene at its NY landfall was yet another example of a sprawling system with winds much weaker than what would be expected for its pressure due to the broad gradient. For comparison, the compact Charley was 130kt at 941 MB, and Grace as of last advisory is 75kt at 983 MB.

Why isn't Superstorm Sandy on this list, because it was considered non-tropical at landfall?

[kevin]

Considering that NYC might even be in play here based on the recent models, I looked it up and found that since hurricane tracking started in 1851 only 2 tropical storms have ever made landfall in NYC. They are:

1893 - #4 - Category 1 landfall (986mb/75kt)
2011 - Irene - TS landfall (965mb/55kt)

Other even older landfalling tropical storms in NYC are the 1821 Norfolk and Long Island hurricane and possibly a pre-Columbian hurricane around the 13th century. What I'm trying to say is that a TS landfall or a hurricane landfall in NYC is a 'once in a century' event or so, just the fact that it's a possibility now is already exceptionally rare. Hopefully it won't happen considering the population density there. Eerily the 1893 #4 hurricane made landfall on the 24th of August, Irene on the 27th of August and Henri is forecast to make landfall on the 22nd of August. Seems like the 3rd week of August is the 'danger week' for NYC.

Irene at its NY landfall was yet another example of a sprawling system with winds much weaker than what would be expected for its pressure due to the broad gradient. For comparison, the compact Charley was 130kt at 941 MB, and Grace as of last advisory is 75kt at 983 MB.

Why isn't Superstorm Sandy on this list, because it was considered non-tropical at landfall?

Yes I think so as well as the fact that Sandy made landfall near Brigantine, New Jersey. Of course it still caused massive damage to NYC, but because of that it doesn't officially count as a NYC landfall.

[Blinhart]

Irene at its NY landfall was yet another example of a sprawling system with winds much weaker than what would be expected for its pressure due to the broad gradient. For comparison, the compact Charley was 130kt at 941 MB, and Grace as of last advisory is 75kt at 983 MB.

Why isn't Superstorm Sandy on this list, because it was considered non-tropical at landfall?

Yes I think so as well as the fact that Sandy made landfall near Brigantine, New Jersey. Of course it still caused massive damage to NYC, but because of that it doesn't officially count as a NYC landfall.

I've been to the areas around NYC, I really feel anything within 25-50 miles of NYC (center point) should be considered part of NYC, it doesn't matter if it is in NY, NJ, Connecticut, most people around there either work in NYC or go to NYC on a regular basis and most people like me consider them as part of NYC. I know most census and political regulations would consider part of the Metropolis of NYC. I know this is off topic, but I think weather publications and other publications need to consider the Metropolis of a city as part of their history. Look at Katrina, most people look at New Orleans as all the area south of Lake Pontchartrain, but in reality there are many towns that are part of the Metropolis of New Orleans there.