2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Stormybajan]

12z EPS goes berserk with development after 196hrs in many areas. We've been warned......

https://i.ibb.co/j8DpbJY/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Tropical-Atlantic-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios.gif

I can't see your image. I wonder if it's being blocked by work.

Showing for me

[aspen]

12z EPS goes berserk with development after 196hrs in many areas. We've been warned......

https://i.ibb.co/j8DpbJY/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Tropical-Atlantic-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios.gif

I can't see your image. I wonder if it's being blocked by work.

https://i.imgur.com/RUtD4Iu.gif
Not the same but it gets the idea across.

That first MDR system starts showing up in only 4 days. If other models jump on board soon, we’ll probably see a lemon this weekend.

Crazy that there’s model evidence for Ida, Julian, Kate, and Larry in the next two weeks — two possible MDR systems, a possible subtropics system, and a Gulf/CAG system.

[aspen]

I can't see your image. I wonder if it's being blocked by work.

https://i.imgur.com/RUtD4Iu.gif
Not the same but it gets the idea across.

That first MDR system starts showing up in only 4 days. If other models jump on board soon, we’ll probably see a lemon this weekend.

Or tonight, it seems. The NHC just tagged it with 0/20 odds.

[Teban54]

I can't see your image. I wonder if it's being blocked by work.

https://i.imgur.com/RUtD4Iu.gif
Not the same but it gets the idea across.

That first MDR system starts showing up in only 4 days. If other models jump on board soon, we’ll probably see a lemon this weekend.

Crazy that there’s model evidence for Ida, Julian, Kate, and Larry in the next two weeks — two possible MDR systems, a possible subtropics system, and a Gulf/CAG system.

Fun fact: The names Larry through Peter have only been used once (2003), while Rose through Wanda have never been used. If the EPS forecasts verify, even just partially, 2021 looks to be well on track of reaching Rose and beyond.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/RUtD4Iu.gif
Not the same but it gets the idea across.

That first MDR system starts showing up in only 4 days. If other models jump on board soon, we’ll probably see a lemon this weekend.

Crazy that there’s model evidence for Ida, Julian, Kate, and Larry in the next two weeks — two possible MDR systems, a possible subtropics system, and a Gulf/CAG system.

Fun fact: The names Larry through Peter have only been used once (2003), while Rose through Wanda have never been used. If the EPS forecasts verify, even just partially, 2021 looks to be well on track of reaching Rose and beyond.

Who knows if we will reach Adria ?

[Cpv17]

Decent support from the EPS in the western Gulf in about 8-10 days:

[SconnieCane]

Decent support from the EPS in the western Gulf in about 8-10 days:

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/38210920.gif?0.5372085401054739

Grace Pt. 2? Yuck. Saw this with Eta and Iota last year, not to mention the repeated Louisiana hits.

[Teban54]

Decent support from the EPS in the western Gulf in about 8-10 days:

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/38210920.gif?0.5372085401054739

Grace Pt. 2? Yuck. Saw this with Eta and Iota last year, not to mention the repeated Louisiana hits.

Most of these members seem to be heading north or NW near US-Mexico border unlike Grace. Of course track and intensity will change when it's 240 hours out.

[SconnieCane]

Decent support from the EPS in the western Gulf in about 8-10 days:

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/v3.0/ecens/sessions/38210920.gif?0.5372085401054739

Grace Pt. 2? Yuck. Saw this with Eta and Iota last year, not to mention the repeated Louisiana hits.

Most of these members seem to be heading north or NW near US-Mexico border unlike Grace. Of course track and intensity will change when it's 240 hours out.

My bad, I was looking at the early part of the animation, which is actually for Grace.

[SFLcane]

It’s something to see the gfs with nada across the main development and most of the basin for that matter during mid August.

[gatorcane]

It’s something to see the gfs with nada across the main development and most of the basin for that matter during mid August.

The GFS shows a hostile MDR over the next week at least:

[Cpv17]

It’s something to see the gfs with nada across the main development and most of the basin for that matter during mid August.

It’s not surprising honestly. That part of the basin will be more favorable in a few more weeks. Right now it’s the western part of the basin that’s favorable.

[Cpv17]

It’s something to see the gfs with nada across the main development and most of the basin for that matter during mid August.

The GFS shows a hostile MDR over the next week at least:

https://i.postimg.cc/HsmLhfmG/gfs-shear-atl-29.png

When does the GFS not show that? You post that same map all the time.

[SoupBone]

It’s something to see the gfs with nada across the main development and most of the basin for that matter during mid August.

The GFS shows a hostile MDR over the next week at least:

https://i.postimg.cc/HsmLhfmG/gfs-shear-atl-29.png

When does the GFS not show that? You post that same map all the time.

What's the issue with him posting that? Would it be any different than posting phantom GFS spinups all the time? Or am I reading your post incorrectly?

That CAG system that the GFS was showing hasn't been there in several runs. Almost to the point where that other system should show up though in this run.

[SoupBone]

So the latest GFS sends that system OTS or an east coast system, at least ATM.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a pretty good signal from the GEFS on WCAR / WGOM development. The CMC Op also shows development:

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... Hours 294-384... GFS consistent with development in the Caribbean... Still fantasy as far as track...

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks like a pretty good signal from the GEFS on WCAR / WGOM development. The CMC Op also shows development:

https://i.postimg.cc/0yFzH0qM/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh168-240.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/jj6JwnGD/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh138-240.gif

Yay. A strong signal right towards my area.

[Cpv17]

The GFS shows a hostile MDR over the next week at least:

https://i.postimg.cc/HsmLhfmG/gfs-shear-atl-29.png

When does the GFS not show that? You post that same map all the time.

What's the issue with him posting that? Would it be any different than posting phantom GFS spinups all the time? Or am I reading your post incorrectly?

That CAG system that the GFS was showing hasn't been there in several runs. Almost to the point where that other system should show up though in this run.

I mean there’s nothing wrong with it. I was just stating that it seems like the GFS is almost always showing unfavorable conditions for development. The GFS op still has it btw. The energy just develops too close to the shoreline and crashes it into Mexico but the ensembles paint a different picture.

[CFLHurricane]

Looks like a pretty good signal from the GEFS on WCAR / WGOM development. The CMC Op also shows development:

https://i.postimg.cc/0yFzH0qM/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh168-240.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/jj6JwnGD/gem-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh138-240.gif

Yay. A strong signal right towards my area.

Florida will gladly take it off your hands so we don’t have to wait for one of the MDR systems being forecasted for mid-September.