2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[Category5Kaiju]

Grace has demonstrated two important things:

1. This year is no 2013 repeat. Heck no.

2. The MDR may not be anomalously warm, but the West Atlantic sure is more than favorable for powerful hurricanes otherwise.

Buckle up, we have ways to go folks.

[Landy]

I hope Grace finally puts an end to the season cancel posts. This August has shown more than enough to disprove such thoughts and we still have a bit over a week left to go for the month.

[CyclonicFury]

As we commonly see with active Atlantic hurricane seasons, the first major hurricane is a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in August. This happened in 2017 with Harvey, and 2020 with Laura. Usually the western part of the basin becomes favorable before the eastern part of the basin, and it's likely a result of MJO progression. Henri is likely to become a hurricane tomorrow, which would get us to 8-3-1 with above average ACE with the potential for more activity later this month as indicated by ensembles.

I have mentioned many times that no Atlantic hurricane season since 2009 had a major hurricane before August 20. Dr. Gray would ring the bell on August 20 for a reason.

[galaxy401]

This season could see this naming list finally get some more usage. Since 2003, the list was the most unluckiest one since it always happened on El Nino years. Names past Kate have been rare and the list has never seen any names past Peter. Every other naming list has used the R name. We'll see if this year can push it or not.

[Hammy]

This season could see this naming list finally get some more usage. Since 2003, the list was the most unluckiest one since it always happened on El Nino years. Names past Kate have been rare and the list has never seen any names past Peter. Every other naming list has used the R name. We'll see if this year can push it or not.

Isn't 2003 pretty much the only year that went past Kate?

[Teban54]

This season could see this naming list finally get some more usage. Since 2003, the list was the most unluckiest one since it always happened on El Nino years. Names past Kate have been rare and the list has never seen any names past Peter. Every other naming list has used the R name. We'll see if this year can push it or not.

Isn't 2003 pretty much the only year that went past Kate?

Indeed it is. Two other seasons, 1985 and 2015, stopped at Kate.

[AtlanticWind]

I really think, unfortunately , we are looking at a very high ACE this season.

[Steve]

This season could see this naming list finally get some more usage. Since 2003, the list was the most unluckiest one since it always happened on El Nino years. Names past Kate have been rare and the list has never seen any names past Peter. Every other naming list has used the R name. We'll see if this year can push it or not.

Isn't 2003 pretty much the only year that went past Kate?

Indeed it is. Two other seasons, 1985 and 2015, stopped at Kate.

Not sure how old you are, but 1985 was considered an active season for that era. haha

[Steve]

I hope Grace finally puts an end to the season cancel posts. This August has shown more than enough to disprove such thoughts and we still have a bit over a week left to go for the month.

Maybe it's just me, but it seems those posts are significantly down this year from pretty much every other year I've been on the site (+/- 2002).

[Shell Mound]

Well, now I’m definitely recalibrating my earlier posts, given that Grace became a hurricane in the W Caribbean and then a MH in the BoC.

[MarioProtVI]

Well, now I’m definitely recalibrating my earlier posts, given that Grace became a hurricane in the W Caribbean and then a MH in the BoC.

Maybe this could be an indicator to always be patient and not immediately downcast based on sometimes dubious trends and that August 20 is a set date for a specific reason in the hurricane season?

[WiscoWx02]

Just got back from storm chasing and wow Grace is a solid category 3 hurricane! In the 7 years I have been tracking hurricanes, I have never witnessed one in the Atlantic this early if memory serves. With Henri about to become the third hurricane of the season, I don't think we have had 3 hurricanes already by this point in the last 7 years either but I'm not 100% sure on that one. August 20th is a magical day for the wrong reason no denying.

[Hammy]

As we commonly see with active Atlantic hurricane seasons, the first major hurricane is a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico in August. This happened in 2017 with Harvey, and 2020 with Laura. Usually the western part of the basin becomes favorable before the eastern part of the basin, and it's likely a result of MJO progression. Henri is likely to become a hurricane tomorrow, which would get us to 8-3-1 with above average ACE with the potential for more activity later this month as indicated by ensembles.

I have mentioned many times that no Atlantic hurricane season since 2009 had a major hurricane before August 20. Dr. Gray would ring the bell on August 20 for a reason.

If you include years where the first major was earlier, it's a remarkably good indicator--1980, 1985, 1999, 2004, 2005, 2008 (Gustav was 110 but close enough ), 2017, and 2020 all had major hurricanes during August and saw an active season (most being hyperactive in fact.) The only exceptions in the last four decades were 1983 and 1992, and neither of those had named storms before August 15.

In fact during that period, the only years to have a major hurricane at all prior to September and end up average to below average were 1983, 1991, 1992, and 2009--and none had more than two storms by that point.

[Landy]

I hope Grace finally puts an end to the season cancel posts. This August has shown more than enough to disprove such thoughts and we still have a bit over a week left to go for the month.

Maybe it's just me, but it seems those posts are significantly down this year from pretty much every other year I've been on the site (+/- 2002).

Yeah I doubt you're wrong. I've only seen the posts from last year and this year so I have limited knowledge regarding that, though I may have some idea on how far it can get based on others references back to 2017. Perhaps I should read back.

Personally I felt the month-long break of tropical cyclogenesis brought about a little surge of them similar to but less than last year's quantity > quality posts. Regardless just like then they'll probably phase out over time as we reach the first and second climatological peaks respectively.

[Teban54]

Interestingly, we might have just witnessed the most exciting August 20 in recent history. Here are what happened on August 20 dating back to 2014:

2021: Grace RIed into a high-end Cat 3 at landfall in Mexico. Henri is holding steady as a high-end TS, ready to intensify once shear abates. Another lemon is mentioned by the NHC, but models are not enthusiastic.
2020: TS Laura was just named in the eastern MDR, but was very disorganized and would not reach its peak intensity until 7 days later. An organizing wave in the SW Caribbean would become Marco the next day.
2019: Chantal formed on August 20, defying all model forecasts and NHC advisories. The wave that would become Dorian just left Africa.
2018: Nothing in the North Atlantic and no AOIs mentioned by the NHC.
2017: The remnants of Harvey were in the Western Caribbean after opening up to a wave due to a wall of shear. Two other lemons are on the NHC TWO, but neither eventually developed.
2016: Fiona reached its peak intensity of 45 kt in the Central Atlantic. Two other waves are being monitored for development, and they would eventually become Hurricanes Gaston and Hermine.
2015: Danny just started its RI phase that would eventually bring it to a 110 kt Cat 3 the following day (!!!). Three AOIs were mentioned by the NHC, and one of them would become Erika.
2014: Cristobal's precursor wave was moving across the western MDR, but would not develop until it was north of DR in 3 days.

As you can see, not even in above-average or hyperactive seasons are we guaranteed to have significant activity on or before August 20, so Grace was certainly exceptional in that regard.

On the other hand, the day itself is not a very good indicator of seasonal activity as you should expect: see 2015. Still, Grace's RI might indeed be an ominous sign for the rest of the season, for reasons many others have mentioned in several threads.

[AlphaToOmega]

There is no doubt: the switch has been flipped.

[AnnularCane]

I must confess, I actually rang a bell yesterday. So what happened with Gracie was probably my fault.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1429094355483103232

[SFLcane]

Shell I thought this season was over or conditions were extremely hostile or there’s 5 tutts. Your down casting is exhausting it’s mid aug 3 hurricanes and 1 major i say we are off to a blazing start.

[cycloneye]

ACE for 2021 is at 30.0 and is above average for the August 21rst date. The average for this date is 17.3 units. Enough said,season is running ahead of normal.