2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

I believe this is going to be the start of the CV season. First week of Sept.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO... Continues to show a TW/Storm recurving into the Central Atlantic and another TW moving off Africa @168 hours moving W across the Atlantic...

[SoupBone]

I believe this is going to be the start of the CV season. First week of Sept.

https://i.postimg.cc/L5zKNtNg/B79-FA0-A3-B392-4440-9526-0-EE2-A6-AA514-A.png

Almost as if someone flipped a switch...hmmm.

[Hammy]

https://i.imgur.com/4l0E48z.gif

12z EURO... Continues to show a TW/Storm recurving into the Central Atlantic and another TW moving off Africa @168 hours moving W across the Atlantic...

Worth noting the Euro shows four potential systems (including one system that clearly is) by 168h. 168h ago the Euro showed absolutely nothing on today's date.

[AutoPenalti]

The Hurricane Stock Market has begun! Pre-market had some decent returns.

[SoupBone]

The GFS puts a Cat 2 hurricane into the Louisiana/Mississippi border on September 5th, 16 days out. That's after it scrapes the Louisiana coast.

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/JohnnyParker012/status/1428891457545510918

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/JohnnyParker012/status/1428891457545510918

"The Gulf will have to be watched going forward. That's all."

About as succinct as you can be.

[captainbarbossa19]

https://twitter.com/JohnnyParker012/status/1428891457545510918

"The Gulf will have to be watched going forward. That's all."

About as succinct as you can be.

Probably a good post at this point, although I believe that the threat will be more likely the northwestern Gulf next time.

[StPeteMike]

0z seems to significantly weaken the potential system around the beginning of September from previous runs. Likely will go back and forth on intensity but it’s almost likely (my opinion) that we shall see something in the GoM around September 3rd. Looks to come from the wave that comes off the African Coast later today.

[Hammy]

Worth noting that none of the GFS, GEM, or Euro had any tropical storms in the Atlantic basin today if you go out five days or more. We're probably in for a lull for a few days but there are several areas of vorticity beyond the 4-5 day mark--something that wasn't even present in 120+ hour runs for today.

[Monsoonjr99]

GFS wants some vorticity into Texas at day 6, I presume from the wave currently near 46W.

[IcyTundra]

The track of that early September storm the GFS has been showing in the past few runs is odd. Forms in the Caribbean and tracks north across Cuba then a ridge of high pressure builds to the east forcing it to track WNW towards Louisiana. Right now the details of this potential storm are not important as these runs of the operational GFS have a close to 0 percent chance of verifying this far out, but we can take away from this is that there is a signal for some sort of development in the Carribean in the first days of September with no telling where it will go from there.

[IcyTundra]

CMC develops the late August CAG system and sends it into SE TX 985 MB

[SFLcane]

Things about to go into over drive come first week of September. Long range EPS now showing some big hurricanes nearing the northern Islands. With the CCKW overhead this could be a big one potentially.

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1429039499208761344

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1429039499208761344

https://i.postimg.cc/brJ8ZKqY/7-E54-C596-207-F-4-F58-A648-5289-BED13-E90.gif

https://i.postimg.cc/Sxq482St/75-A694-DE-E339-4-B1-D-80-F3-37-B241-FD8-E13.gif

The GEFS looks to have woken up with WCAR/BOC/WGOM development which aligns with the CMC/GEPS/EPS.I don’t buy the GFS Florida storm in fantasy land which looks like more of an October track not to mention an outlier.

[Clearcloudz]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1429039499208761344

The GEFS looks to have woken up with WCAR/BOC/WGOM development which aligns with the CMC/GEPS/EPS.I don’t buy the GFS Florida storm in fantasy land which looks like more of an October track not to mention an outlier.

https://i.postimg.cc/8CWPmS7J/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh138-204.gif

GEFS Ensemble has been very consistent on this idea as well as some ECENS ensemble coming on board on some runs as well. I would prefer following ensemble data as it provides a more broad picture instead of just one model run.

[Clearcloudz]

GEFS for next sunday 8/29 showing Texas and Louisiana as the main players on the board at the moment.