ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

[GCANE]

Eye is not as dry as last night's drop

[kevin]

SFMR by NOAA2 is 65 kt so the data supports a minimal hurricane with a pressure of 991 - 992 mbar from AF304. However, Est. Sfc. Wind is 'only' 63 kt so I'm not 100% sure the NHC is willing to call it a hurricane already. They might be waiting for one more pass. Either way, it seems Henri is getting better organized and that it's starting to intensify. Luckily it took quite a while to get itself together otherwise it could've been a lot stronger by now.

[GCANE]

A couple towers firing off but not yet rotating around the LLC

[hohnywx]

From a local meteorologist in Connecticut...he seems to believe the surge will be worse than what is forecast currently by the NHC:

 https://twitter.com/JGodynick/status/1429034780855836673

[xironman]

SFMR by NOAA2 is 65 kt so the data supports a minimal hurricane with a pressure of 991 - 992 mbar from AF304. However, Est. Sfc. Wind is 'only' 63 kt so I'm not 100% sure the NHC is willing to call it a hurricane already. They might be waiting for one more pass. Either way, it seems Henri is getting better organized and that it's starting to intensify. Luckily it took quite a while to get itself together otherwise it could've been a lot stronger by now.

It has 20hrs of deep warm water before degrading

[jaxfladude]

See post lower down...stupid phone messed me up....

[NDG]

From a local meteorologist in Connecticut...he seems to believe the surge will be worse than what is forecast currently by the NHC:

https://twitter.com/JGodynick/status/1429034780855836673

Interesting, that's much higher than what the NHC forecasts.

[jaxfladude]

So Henri looking to be a strong tropical version of an Nor'easter for Southern New England? Looks like this will be more of flooding risk from surge and strong wind event causing possibly wide spread power outages?

Edit....just saw the surge forecast upthread after i posted...must have posted as I was typing my reply...

[AdamFirst]

From a local meteorologist in Connecticut...he seems to believe the surge will be worse than what is forecast currently by the NHC:

https://twitter.com/JGodynick/status/1429034780855836673

His post is based on a surge model that takes in account wind direction piling water up in the sound and the tidal phases of the moon. An interesting take but seems like a worst case scenario to me. Hopefully it doesn't come to pass

[aspen]

NOAA2 found a much better organized and a much further east center. 992.5mb extrapolated around 72.6W with a well-defined pressure gradient matching up with a drop in winds.

[Chemmers]

After seeing how Grace went from a ts to a strong cat 3 in just just over a day, everyone on the east coast watch out. Hope this doesn't take anyone off guard if it does do ri at some point

[SunnyThoughts]

Everybody in the Path of Henri take care and get ready. Those of us down South thinking of you guys and hoping for as few effects as possible.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1429060738048475140

[InfernoFlameCat]

Just finished ROTC in college. HOLY grace. WOW. I MISSED SO MUCH!

[GCANE]

NOAA2 found a much better organized and a much further east center. 992.5mb extrapolated around 72.6W with a well-defined pressure gradient matching up with a drop in winds.

VDM:
993mb
33.73N 72.28W
Cir Eye 15nm, Open North

[xironman]

Looks like some mesos may be ready to start rotating around the center.

[GCANE]

The infeed from the southern CAPE ridge is increasing rapidly.
Up to 5000 from 4000 a few hours ago.

[hohnywx]

We may have Hurricane Henri now

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1429074399173414915

[ColdMiser123]

Recon found 82 kt FL wind with Henri, but it's far removed from the center, so NHC might consider that as more of a local effect as opposed to wind associated with the circulation itself.

They did find 65 kt SFMR earlier, but I'm not sure if that by itself would be enough to upgrade.

Structure is significantly improved compared to yesterday, should have around another day or so to intensify.