2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
If conditions in an area are good the Euro will show development, otherwise you have to look for signals and not perfectly modeled storms. A lot of us said this when the euro was doing well but no one listened. I don't think it's changed much, but it is telling us conditions in the MDR are less than ideal.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
IcyTundra wrote:SoupBone wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:I'm not sure what is up with the operational models anymore.
While the ensembles have been pretty good at identifying Atlantic TC development potential in 2020 and 2021, the operational models have been poor, either keeping systems weak or dissipating them. A few days ago the EURO showed Grace dissipating in the Gulf which made no sense. GFS seems to want to string out every wave in the long range. And the EURO seems incapable of developing anything past a moderate tropical storm.
I'm not sure I'm following. The GFS develops the system we're all talking about and it makes landfall in central Mexico, the Euro landfalls it in South Padre island. Both show development.
I don't think he is just talking about this potential storm he is talking about the recent trend of the Euro and GFS struggling with cyclogenesis. In general I think the Euro has been having more issues than the GFS lately when it comes to this. Because of the Euro's recent issues I find it concerning that the Euro is picking up on it a week in advance.
Yep! That’s exactly what he’s talking about. It’s been absolutely atrocious and it started last year and this season hasn’t been any different.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
IcyTundra wrote:SoupBone wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:I'm not sure what is up with the operational models anymore.
While the ensembles have been pretty good at identifying Atlantic TC development potential in 2020 and 2021, the operational models have been poor, either keeping systems weak or dissipating them. A few days ago the EURO showed Grace dissipating in the Gulf which made no sense. GFS seems to want to string out every wave in the long range. And the EURO seems incapable of developing anything past a moderate tropical storm.
I'm not sure I'm following. The GFS develops the system we're all talking about and it makes landfall in central Mexico, the Euro landfalls it in South Padre island. Both show development.
I don't think he is just talking about this potential storm he is talking about the recent trend of the Euro and GFS struggling with cyclogenesis. In general I think the Euro has been having more issues than the GFS lately when it comes to this. Because of the Euro's recent issues I find it concerning that the Euro is picking up on it a week in advance.
I see, yeah the Euro hasn't done well this year on genesis, and the GFS has recently (apparently) performed poorly for Grace. It does sometimes feel like we're on an island by ourselves with the models this season.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SoupBone wrote:IcyTundra wrote:SoupBone wrote:
I'm not sure I'm following. The GFS develops the system we're all talking about and it makes landfall in central Mexico, the Euro landfalls it in South Padre island. Both show development.
I don't think he is just talking about this potential storm he is talking about the recent trend of the Euro and GFS struggling with cyclogenesis. In general I think the Euro has been having more issues than the GFS lately when it comes to this. Because of the Euro's recent issues I find it concerning that the Euro is picking up on it a week in advance.
I see, yeah the Euro hasn't done well this year on genesis, and the GFS has recently (apparently) performed poorly for Grace. It does sometimes feel like we're on an island by ourselves with the models this season.
A week ago the Euro showed crickets and look what happened. We had a major in Grace and now a cat 1 with Henri. Perfect example. Now that the Euro is actually showing something this far out in advance is kinda scary.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Models are just tools and are just as fallible as the humans creating / tweaking them. Use a good dose of historic climatology along with real time basin wide or local indicators to weigh a modeled “threat” all while touching base with the thoughts of the NHC and the many very talented professionals out there. Then, when a player is on the field, lean on Levi’s Twitter page.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
So far, as of 8/29, the 18Z GFS still has the ridge firmly in place as the system crosses the Yucatan. Then on 8/30, the system starts moving NW toward Tex/Mex unless something changes.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SoupBone wrote:So far, as of 8/29, the 18Z GFS still has the ridge firmly in place as the system crosses the Yucatan. Then on 8/30, the system starts moving NW toward Tex/Mex unless something changes.
It looks like the landfall is going to be further north on this run than the 12Z run which was further north than the 6Z run.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
So the GFS makes landfall in roughly the same location (slightly north) as the previous run (central Mexico). It's really banking on that ridge remaining firmly in place. I only give it slightly more relevance (for me personally) because it was one of the first to sniff out the potent ridge for Grace. Can it make it 2/2? I guess we'll see. Interesting to if its ensembles agree or disagree like the previous run.
Last edited by SoupBone on Sat Aug 21, 2021 5:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
IcyTundra wrote:SoupBone wrote:So far, as of 8/29, the 18Z GFS still has the ridge firmly in place as the system crosses the Yucatan. Then on 8/30, the system starts moving NW toward Tex/Mex unless something changes.
It looks like the landfall is going to be further north on this run than the 12Z run which was further north than the 6Z run.
Yeah it's a little north, but still in central Mexico. That ridge pulsates but still stays firm in each run.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
IcyTundra wrote:SoupBone wrote:So far, as of 8/29, the 18Z GFS still has the ridge firmly in place as the system crosses the Yucatan. Then on 8/30, the system starts moving NW toward Tex/Mex unless something changes.
It looks like the landfall is going to be further north on this run than the 12Z run which was further north than the 6Z run.
Yep. You were right. Each run today has slowly crept further north.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Cpv17 wrote:IcyTundra wrote:SoupBone wrote:So far, as of 8/29, the 18Z GFS still has the ridge firmly in place as the system crosses the Yucatan. Then on 8/30, the system starts moving NW toward Tex/Mex unless something changes.
It looks like the landfall is going to be further north on this run than the 12Z run which was further north than the 6Z run.
Yep. You were right. Each run today has slowly crept further north.
Look at the ridge placement in each run, it's just pulsating. No erosion in it. But will it be right? Like I said, it did sniff out the stout ridge for Grace, but who knows.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
It's all going to depend on the strength of the ridge. If the ridge is as strong as the GFS is showing then it will be another threat to Mexico like Grace if the ridge is weaker like the CMC and Euro along with some of the members of the GFS and Euro ensembles then it could be more of a Texas threat. It is still about a week out from forming so a lot can and will change.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The 12z CMC reveals the original of that Gulf storm: one of the currently active tropical waves, which reaches the Lesser Antilles on Monday morning and the SW Caribbean on Wednesday. It then merged with some other low pressure system and tracks north. Since the catalyst of the development seen on all of the models is an AEW, we might need to watch out for earlier development.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
aspen wrote:The 12z CMC reveals the original of that Gulf storm: one of the currently active tropical waves, which reaches the Lesser Antilles on Monday morning and the SW Caribbean on Wednesday. It then merged with some other low pressure system and tracks north. Since the catalyst of the development seen on all of the models is an AEW, we might need to watch out for earlier development.
It looks like it could be a fairly large system, no? It also looks like it could be tapping into a lot of EPAC moisture.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

12z to 18z GFS ensemble trend. Earlier development gets north quicker before turning west. This has huge consequences on final landfall location.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The 18Z GEFS is way north of last run, starting to consolidate around Matagorda at 210 hours.
The 18Z GEFS would be way too close for comfort for those in Houston.
The 18Z GEFS would be way too close for comfort for those in Houston.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I think the further north the track is the higher the ceiling is for intensity. If it tracks further to the north then it would have more time over the warm gulf waters and if wind shear and dry air aren't too much of a problem I could see this one getting really intense.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Cpv17 wrote:aspen wrote:The 12z CMC reveals the original of that Gulf storm: one of the currently active tropical waves, which reaches the Lesser Antilles on Monday morning and the SW Caribbean on Wednesday. It then merged with some other low pressure system and tracks north. Since the catalyst of the development seen on all of the models is an AEW, we might need to watch out for earlier development.
It looks like it could be a fairly large system, no? It also looks like it could be tapping into a lot of EPAC moisture.
It remains to be seen if it’ll be this broad gyre-like system that the CMC shows and the GFS originally showed. Since a wave triggers development, it could be a normal-sized system if the wave develops early — within the next 4 days.
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I think some element of this has to do with how strong it gets before entering the gulf as well. The strongest members from the beginning seem to be pulling more to the right
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Re: 2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
aspen wrote:Cpv17 wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:Lots of members showing strong Cabo Verde Hurricanes on the EPS![]()
https://i.imgur.com/UFcQcUJ_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium
Bunch of fish storms. Yawn.
Strong fish storms are great — exciting to track without the dread of it about to devastate an entire community. The “f” in “fish storm” stands for fun, unless you’re a fish.
Unfortunately, the strong ridging will likely make safe recurves less probable, and the models are know to show recurves very early on only to correct for a more westward track.
Now you've got me wondering if fish notice if a hurricane is passing overhead, but I guess that's a different topic.

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