ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[cane5]

When will it be time to consider funding new hurricane hunter planes?

Surely we can't keep using the same old planes forever. I expect we will continue to see increasing maintenance issues as the years go on, especially if we continue to see such active seasons.

What a strange year in the tropics. Storm comes out of nowhere off Africa in early July. Fred would have been a louisiana or texas storm instead it roams just east of the Panhandle. Henri if anything would have been a Carolina storm in normal seasons. Yet the superstorms don’t even begin until labor Day and too often South Florida often escapes disaster. I have this eerie feeling that ain’t gonna happen this season.

[grapealcoholic]

When will it be time to consider funding new hurricane hunter planes?

Surely we can't keep using the same old planes forever. I expect we will continue to see increasing maintenance issues as the years go on, especially if we continue to see such active seasons.

What a strange year in the tropics. Storm comes out of nowhere off Africa in early July. Fred would have been a louisiana or texas storm instead it roams just east of the Panhandle. Henri if anything would have been a Carolina storm in normal seasons. Yet the superstorms don’t even begin until labor Day and too often South Florida often escapes disaster. I have this eerie feeling that ain’t gonna happen this season.

The late october storms are always the scariest imo if waters stay warm

[aspen]

I wonder why recon has entered operational altitude a full 3 degrees south of the center.

[grapealcoholic]

I wonder why recon has entered operational altitude a full 3 degrees south of the center.

Sample the big wind field I assume

[grapealcoholic]

Rotating CBs part two

[tolakram]

Floater just moved north.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-6-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[aspen]

984.0mb extrapolated from this pass. This has clearly strengthened quite a lot since this morning. Surface winds in the SW quadrant are 60 kt.

[Jr0d]

The next data set or two should be close to the center then sample the NNE eyewall. Eagerly awaiting the numbers.

Now the center is forecast to go over may girlfriend's parents in CT, however I think the track will be shifted further east which will put them on the weaker side. Henri's turn to the west, how much or how little it goes west is tough to predict. Further west would result in much higher surge for the Long Island, far enough east and Long Island will see offshore winds and much lower surge(and possible negative surge like Tampa Bay saw for Irma).

Edit to add...984 mb so far from recon.

[supercane4867]

Probably going to look like a watered down version of Sandy as it moves northward. Not a classic tropical cyclone by any means

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1429211166354587652

[aspen]

The northern eyewall is surprisingly weak so far. The strongest winds might be over on the NE or E side instead.

[grapealcoholic]

Feel like the storm will peak around 975

[Jr0d]

Surprising lower winds on the north side of the eye. Unfortunately for impact and surge concerns the wind field is quite large with strong winds well east and southeast of the center. Some of that will likely stay offshore but all land to the righ of center at landfall will have major impacts with winds as high and perhaps higher than center.

[IcyTundra]

Henri is going to be like a noreaster right side will be the windy side with more storm surge while the left side gets most of the precipitation.

[Jr0d]

....maybe not surprising the winds to the north given the structure. Looks like structural changes are happening now, hopefully it will run out of time and warm water before Henri can get stacked.

Very interested to see what kind of winds recon winds in the SE quadrant.

[Blown Away]

Little bubbly bubbly convection around COC.

[CronkPSU]

huge blowup on visible and IR over the center in the last few frames

[SecondBreakfast]

All prepped, got my lanterns and snacks and ready to go. I really hope the surge ends up on the lower end for all. Very concerned about the Peconic Bay. The shellfish industry has been having an awful time the last few seasons, and Greenport is very vulnerable. Local storm chasers are flocking to Montauk.

Looks like I’ll be getting the rain side, should be good for my veggies but hopefully the tree in front of my house stays put. It’s a honey locust so it will drop branches but taproot is deep and I’m hoping it does it’s job.

[aspen]

Recon reports that the eyewall is open to the NE, which is probably why winds were so low. Henri’s maximum winds will probably be in the E or SE quadrants.

[wxman57]

All prepped, got my lanterns and snacks and ready to go. I really hope the surge ends up on the lower end for all. Very concerned about the Peconic Bay. The shellfish industry has been having an awful time the last few seasons, and Greenport is very vulnerable. Local storm chasers are flocking to Montauk.

Looks like I’ll be getting the rain side, should be good for my veggies but hopefully the tree in front of my house stays put. It’s a honey locust so it will drop branches but taproot is deep and I’m hoping it does it’s job.

Where are you? The rain side will be to the west of the track once it moves inland.