2021 EPAC Season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
Uhh if this materializes we might get 20 named storms with no problem after all is said and done.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
If this Euro track verifies for the 0/60, we could see some good ACE. This next round of activity could take us above 100 ACE.
The 0/60 should have much higher odds IMO.
00z EPS has three bonafide systems in the next 4 days:
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 21 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The remnants of Grace, located over central Mexico, are expected to
continue moving westward and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean
off the west-central coast of Mexico by Sunday afternoon.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week.
The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 21 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
The remnants of Grace, located over central Mexico, are expected to
continue moving westward and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean
off the west-central coast of Mexico by Sunday afternoon.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early
next week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week.
The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, near or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15461
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
August 26-September 1 is prime and maybe again later in the month while Atlantic goes full 2017.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139596
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 22 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form by mid-week. The system is
forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near
or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Roberts
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 22 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of
southern Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter,
and a tropical depression could form by mid-week. The system is
forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near
or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
Forecaster Roberts
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1448
- Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2021 10:51 am
- Location: Somewhere in Massachusetts
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
The 30-day SOI seems to be in full-on La Nada territory.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
Date Tahiti (hPa) Darwin (hPa) Daily Contribution 30 day Av. SOI 90 day Av. SOI
22 Aug 2021 1014.99 1012.80 3.46 3.91 5.28
21 Aug 2021 1016.24 1012.80 11.05 4.39 5.16
20 Aug 2021 1016.33 1012.45 13.72 4.58 5.11
19 Aug 2021 1014.74 1011.65 8.92 4.41 4.97
18 Aug 2021 1013.41 1012.40 -3.70 4.41 4.88
17 Aug 2021 1015.49 1014.00 -0.79 4.83 5.02
16 Aug 2021 1016.52 1014.25 3.94 5.43 5.09
15 Aug 2021 1014.80 1013.10 0.49 6.31 5.03
14 Aug 2021 1013.90 1013.05 -4.67 7.40 5.14
13 Aug 2021 1016.02 1013.85 3.34 8.82 5.44
12 Aug 2021 1017.38 1014.75 6.13 9.58 5.69
11 Aug 2021 1018.11 1014.80 10.26 10.21 5.81
10 Aug 2021 1018.19 1013.65 17.72 10.45 5.79
9 Aug 2021 1017.38 1015.05 4.31 10.35 5.66
8 Aug 2021 1017.20 1015.95 -2.25 10.77 5.71
7 Aug 2021 1016.96 1016.80 -8.86 11.34 5.82
6 Aug 2021 1015.35 1016.70 -18.03 12.01 5.97
5 Aug 2021 1013.99 1015.40 -18.39 12.99 6.29
4 Aug 2021 1014.71 1014.80 -10.38 13.71 6.74
3 Aug 2021 1015.95 1013.20 6.86 14.09 7.22
2 Aug 2021 1015.08 1012.65 4.92 14.37 7.43
1 Aug 2021 1014.46 1013.10 -1.58 14.84 7.46
31 Jul 2021 1015.39 1013.30 7.02 15.75 7.34
30 Jul 2021 1015.98 1012.90 13.11 16.57 7.03
29 Jul 2021 1015.56 1012.60 12.37 16.49 6.73
28 Jul 2021 1014.67 1013.55 1.05 16.10 6.53
27 Jul 2021 1015.59 1012.90 10.71 15.86 6.58
26 Jul 2021 1016.52 1013.20 14.59 15.32 6.57
25 Jul 2021 1016.49 1012.95 15.94 15.03 6.47
24 Jul 2021 1016.48 1012.90 16.19 14.85 6.34
22 Aug 2021 1014.99 1012.80 3.46 3.91 5.28
21 Aug 2021 1016.24 1012.80 11.05 4.39 5.16
20 Aug 2021 1016.33 1012.45 13.72 4.58 5.11
19 Aug 2021 1014.74 1011.65 8.92 4.41 4.97
18 Aug 2021 1013.41 1012.40 -3.70 4.41 4.88
17 Aug 2021 1015.49 1014.00 -0.79 4.83 5.02
16 Aug 2021 1016.52 1014.25 3.94 5.43 5.09
15 Aug 2021 1014.80 1013.10 0.49 6.31 5.03
14 Aug 2021 1013.90 1013.05 -4.67 7.40 5.14
13 Aug 2021 1016.02 1013.85 3.34 8.82 5.44
12 Aug 2021 1017.38 1014.75 6.13 9.58 5.69
11 Aug 2021 1018.11 1014.80 10.26 10.21 5.81
10 Aug 2021 1018.19 1013.65 17.72 10.45 5.79
9 Aug 2021 1017.38 1015.05 4.31 10.35 5.66
8 Aug 2021 1017.20 1015.95 -2.25 10.77 5.71
7 Aug 2021 1016.96 1016.80 -8.86 11.34 5.82
6 Aug 2021 1015.35 1016.70 -18.03 12.01 5.97
5 Aug 2021 1013.99 1015.40 -18.39 12.99 6.29
4 Aug 2021 1014.71 1014.80 -10.38 13.71 6.74
3 Aug 2021 1015.95 1013.20 6.86 14.09 7.22
2 Aug 2021 1015.08 1012.65 4.92 14.37 7.43
1 Aug 2021 1014.46 1013.10 -1.58 14.84 7.46
31 Jul 2021 1015.39 1013.30 7.02 15.75 7.34
30 Jul 2021 1015.98 1012.90 13.11 16.57 7.03
29 Jul 2021 1015.56 1012.60 12.37 16.49 6.73
28 Jul 2021 1014.67 1013.55 1.05 16.10 6.53
27 Jul 2021 1015.59 1012.90 10.71 15.86 6.58
26 Jul 2021 1016.52 1013.20 14.59 15.32 6.57
25 Jul 2021 1016.49 1012.95 15.94 15.03 6.47
24 Jul 2021 1016.48 1012.90 16.19 14.85 6.34
1 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
12z GFS/ECMWF and 18z GFS confuse me in what the NHC is trying to develop. There’s almost no convection where the NHC has marked an X.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
2. An area of disturbed weather off the coast of southern Mexico is
associated with some disorganized shower activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
this week offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the
system move west-northwestward or northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
associated with some disorganized shower activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
this week offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the
system move west-northwestward or northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
An area of disturbed weather off the coast of southern Mexico is
associated with some disorganized shower activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
this week offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the
system move west-northwestward or northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
associated with some disorganized shower activity. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
this week offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the
system move west-northwestward or northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
An area of disturbed weather located just south of the coast of
southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by late this week offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico while the system moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form by late this week offshore of the southwestern coast
of Mexico while the system moves generally west-northwestward at
around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
An area of disturbed weather centered less than 200 miles south of
Guatemala and southeastern Mexico is producing a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter
part of this week. The disturbance is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore the coast of
southwestern Mexico through this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Guatemala and southeastern Mexico is producing a broad area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and
a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter
part of this week. The disturbance is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining offshore the coast of
southwestern Mexico through this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 741
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 10:34 pm
- Location: Monterrey, N.L, México
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
Gfs, Icon and Navgem are bullish with this one, cat 2-3
Euro and Cmc make this a cat 1
Maybe our third major of the season
Euro and Cmc make this a cat 1
Maybe our third major of the season
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
12z GFS develops the 50/90.
Brings this to 962 mbars off the coast of Baja California Sur.
Moves this onshore Baja California Norte.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
12z ECMWF is further west, but now also trending stronger.
Also develops a system behind it that moves into Guerrero.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
A broad area of low pressure located less than 200 miles offshore of
Guatemala and southern Mexico is producing some disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this
week. The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph this week, passing offshore of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Guatemala and southern Mexico is producing some disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this
week. The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph this week, passing offshore of the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 15960
- Age: 25
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
0z GFS brings this 960 mbar but doesn't bring the LLC into northern Baja/SW US.
0 likes
Re: 2021 EPAC Season
Doesn't the EPAC typically putter out by this time in the season? Seems to be going strong still.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: AnnularCane, Dougiefresh, Emmett_Brown, galvbay, Google Adsense [Bot], HurakaYoshi, Jr0d, NDG, pepeavilenho, Wampadawg and 93 guests