2021 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Shear / Steering / Instability / Sat Images

[NDG]

Fasten your seatbelts, peak of the hurricane season looks to be a bumpy one.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660

[Stormybajan]

Fasten your seatbelts, peak of the hurricane season looks to be a bumpy one.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660

Question though, why wouldnt this pattern favour the EPAC? With sinking air over Africa and rising air mainly situated over the eastern pacific?

[cycloneye]

Now, this is Prepare for the ride. Adrian open your eyes. Heck of Kelvin Wave.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429122335320141825




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1429124562839609345

[AlphaToOmega]

on both the GFS & EPS just in time to run it through the Indian Ocean + Maritime Continent in early-mid Sep during the climo peak of the Atlantic hurricane season

Peak season is going to be crazy

[AnnularCane]

Fasten your seatbelts, peak of the hurricane season looks to be a bumpy one.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660

Greenage!

[Category5Kaiju]

ACE for 2021 is at 30.0 and is above average for the August 21rst date. The average for this date is 17.3 units. Enough said,season is running ahead of normal.

From my understanding we are even ahead of 2020’s pace in terms of ACE as of now

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1429121624628994058

[AutoPenalti]

That signal seems to target the EPAC and W Carr, MDR looks unfavorable.

[WiscoWx02]

That signal seems to target the EPAC and W Carr, MDR looks unfavorable.

The time frame Eric has selected would favor the eastern Pacific more yeah. However, the general idea of an uptick in activity after a brief hiatus following Henri remains because you can bet money that convective pulse will travel eastward with time and eventually favor an uptick in Atlantic activity once the eastern Pacific takes a nap, assuming the shear relaxes. Timeframe for more tropical activity looking to be first or second week of September, models FINALLY starting to pick up on this too. I'd be concerned if they weren't at this point.

[Steve]

Fasten your seatbelts, peak of the hurricane season looks to be a bumpy one.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660

Oh ****. I wonder if the MJO comes out of the circle back in 8 or 1?

[Steve]

^^ appears to be so. Scroll down to VPM Indices.

http://mikeventrice.weebly.com/mjo.html

[Steve]

I hope Grace finally puts an end to the season cancel posts. This August has shown more than enough to disprove such thoughts and we still have a bit over a week left to go for the month.

Maybe it's just me, but it seems those posts are significantly down this year from pretty much every other year I've been on the site (+/- 2002).

Yeah I wouldn't doubt you're wrong. I've only seen the posts from last year and this year so I have limited knowledge regarding that, though I may have some idea on how far it can get based on others references back to 2017. Perhaps I should read back.

Personally I felt the month-long break of tropical cyclogenesis brought about a little surge of them similar to but less than last year's quantity > quality posts. Regardless just like then they'll probably phase out over time as we reach the first and second climatological peaks respectively.

Haha yeah, it was intolerable at times with several posters reaching for anything to fit their preseason agendas. This included both wish and down casters.

[toad strangler]

That signal seems to target the EPAC and W Carr, MDR looks unfavorable.

Looks to be the entrance of a favorable CCKW on steroids that moves through

[aspen]

That signal seems to target the EPAC and W Carr, MDR looks unfavorable.

The eastern MDR does, but that Kelvin Wave will propagate westward as September goes on, and waves will find favorable conditions in the western half of the MDR.

[NDG]

Fasten your seatbelts, peak of the hurricane season looks to be a bumpy one.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660

Question though, why wouldnt this pattern favour the EPAC? With sinking air over Africa and rising air mainly situated over the eastern pacific?

The Kelvin Wave is passing through is not staying put, also climatoligy and a developing La Nina along with -PDO does not favor much of the activity to be in the EPAC.

[WiscoWx02]

Ummmmmm.....okay then, this is happening
SST's in the eastern MDR If this trend holds or amplifies in the coming weeks with that monster CCKW coming through and everything lines up right, could see some of those long trackers we've all been waiting for come second week of September. I know Andy Hazelton mentioned that the EPS is going nuts with Cabo Verde activity in a few weeks in reply to Eric's post listed above. This is probably a powerful factor in why.

[NDG]

Fasten your seatbelts, peak of the hurricane season looks to be a bumpy one.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660

Oh ****. I wonder if the MJO comes out of the circle back in 8 or 1?

Even if it doesn't come of the circle the Kelvin Wave would be in control, I can see it coming out at least on phase 1 & 2 which still favors the Atlantic basin for activity during the peak of the seaon.

[Steve]

Fasten your seatbelts, peak of the hurricane season looks to be a bumpy one.

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429120573225926660

Oh ****. I wonder if the MJO comes out of the circle back in 8 or 1?

Even if it doesn't come of the circle the Kelvin Wave would be in control, I can see it coming out at least on phase 1 & 2 which still favors the Atlantic basin for activity during the peak of the seaon.

Phases 1, 2 and 3 would be extra proverbial fuel for the fire.

[toad strangler]

That signal seems to target the EPAC and W Carr, MDR looks unfavorable.

The eastern MDR does, but that Kelvin Wave will propagate westward as September goes on, and waves will find favorable conditions in the western half of the MDR.

Eastward

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/TxStormChasers/status/1429241172933890051