2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GEFS Ensemble

[SoupBone]

https://imgur.com/VbU3WLN

18Z GEFS Ensemble

Looks like someone threw spaghetti at a wall.

[Category5Kaiju]

Sheesh, some of those ensembles members are quite intense. If those members are to be believed, then there's a decent chance that Grace may not be the only August trouble-making major hurricane this season.

[Cpv17]

So the newest GFS has 31 ensemble members, correct? I’m not sure how many members in that pic above are showing development but it’s for sure not all 31 of them. So I’m asking just how strong of a signal is this really considering it’s still 7-10 days out?

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1429245722273230853

[AlphaToOmega]

Would anyone like to guess what the models are finding? Maybe it is as if someone activated a switch or if climatology is a thing

[MarioProtVI]

Would anyone like to guess what the models are finding? Maybe it is as if someone activated a switch or if climatology is a thing
https://i.postimg.cc/GpzP3SDH/gem-mslpa-atl-21.png
https://i.postimg.cc/qvsXS7Mc/gem-mslpa-atl-28.png
https://i.postimg.cc/6QBLXNyk/gem-mslpa-atl-35.png
https://i.postimg.cc/kg3vTS9X/gem-mslpa-atl-41.png

Classic “Constantly Making Cyclones” CMC has returned it seems

[InfernoFlameCat]

That upper level low has been around for 2 weeks. The models still keep it going for a bit. How long will this thing last?

[IcyTundra]

So the newest GFS has 31 ensemble members, correct? I’m not sure how many members in that pic above are showing development but it’s for sure not all 31 of them. So I’m asking just how strong of a signal is this really considering it’s still 7-10 days out?

Yeah the new GEFS is 31 members it looks like about half of the members show development which is pretty substantial for a system that hasn't even formed yet and is 7-10 days out. It also has decent support from the euro ensemble with about half of the 50 members showing development along with the operational GFS, Euro, and CMC. All things considered I think there is good support for this system developing as we are still 7-10 days out from possible development.

[SoupBone]

So the newest GFS has 31 ensemble members, correct? I’m not sure how many members in that pic above are showing development but it’s for sure not all 31 of them. So I’m asking just how strong of a signal is this really considering it’s still 7-10 days out?

There are several professional Mets I've seen on other boards and the ones that my company pays that basically say 'if anything actually develops'. I think it's obvious to us amateurs that conditions are favorable but we need something to actually develop.

[Category5Kaiju]

Would anyone like to guess what the models are finding? Maybe it is as if someone activated a switch or if climatology is a thing
https://i.postimg.cc/GpzP3SDH/gem-mslpa-atl-21.png
https://i.postimg.cc/qvsXS7Mc/gem-mslpa-atl-28.png
https://i.postimg.cc/6QBLXNyk/gem-mslpa-atl-35.png
https://i.postimg.cc/kg3vTS9X/gem-mslpa-atl-41.png

We're getting closer and closer to when it is supposed to occur, but that GoM storm looks increasingly concerning across many models. Not sure what it will be named in actuality, but it looks to be willing to tap into the bathwater GoM waters and possibly even the Loop Current if it goes east enough.

[SoupBone]

The 00Z GFS sends this system into extreme southern Mexico, with the ridge firmly in place. We all know this is still a ways away, but I have at least slightly more faith in the GFS due to it getting that ridge for Grace in place way earlier than other models. Let's see if the GEFS responds or stays with that northern route into Texas.

[captainbarbossa19]

The 00Z GFS sends this system into extreme southern Mexico, with the ridge firmly in place. We all know this is still a ways away, but I have at least slightly more faith in the GFS due to it getting that ridge for Grace in place way earlier than other models. Let's see if the GEFS responds or stays with that northern route into Texas.

I highly doubt that solution will verify. I think it is more likely that the ridge will break down over Texas and shift to the east later this week. I think this will be hitting at least northern Mexico. Troughing has been the dominant feature this summer over Texas so I doubt the ridge will stay long.

[SoupBone]

The 00Z GFS sends this system into extreme southern Mexico, with the ridge firmly in place. We all know this is still a ways away, but I have at least slightly more faith in the GFS due to it getting that ridge for Grace in place way earlier than other models. Let's see if the GEFS responds or stays with that northern route into Texas.

I highly doubt that solution will verify. I think it is more likely that the ridge will break down over Texas and shift to the east later this week. I think this will be hitting at least northern Mexico. Troughing has been the dominant feature this summer over Texas so I doubt the ridge will stay long.

We've been under a stout ridge in Texas for the last month and a half. That troughing hasn't been present to any significant degree since mid-June. It was bad in May as the rain never stopped. The GFS was correct for Grace with the ridge.

CMC is also way south now and heading to central Mexico, ridging firmly in place.

[djones65]

I agree the GFS is more reliable currently but it still had Grace going to FL initially until it passed Puerto Rico·

[IcyTundra]

I don't trust any global model out past 7 days especially in a complex setup like this with a CAG storm which is notorious for giving the models a hard time. For most of August there has been strong ridging over the gulf that was able to protect Texas from Grace but who knows what the synoptic setup will look like in 7 days. I'm not going to put to much emphasis on global model runs until we actually get a storm that forms in the area as it isn't even a for sure thing that one will form.

[SoupBone]

I don't trust any global model out past 7 days especially in a complex setup like this with a CAG storm which is notorious for giving the models are hard time. For most of August there has been strong ridging over the gulf that was able to protect Texas from Grace but who knows what the synoptic setup will look like in 7 days. I'm not going to put to much emphasis on global model runs until we actually get a storm that forms in the area as it isn't even a for sure thing that one will form.

No one should, but it's funny how these posts dismiss the runs that don't send a behemoth into us, but when they do people rant and rave about it (not talking about you specifically). I'm simply posting about the runs as they come, nothing more, nothing less.

And with that, the GEFS has a large range of solutions, with some looking to head into South Texas again. And on the long range GFS, it puts a Cat 3 on top of Houston on September 5th.

[SoupBone]

So it looks like the GEFS sends some members into the Corpus area, some into Tex/Mex, and some into central to northern Mexico. So still disagreeing with the GFS. I wasn't planning on staying up for the Euro but why not now.

And yeah, this would not be good at all. Thankfully it's 2 weeks out at this point.

[StPeteMike]

Anything 10 days out is just saying conditions look favorable for something to come together, never a true tell sign that what is depicted will match exactly what occurs on September 5 or earlier.

But as I stated last night, models have been consistent if a GoM system early September. Difference tonight than last night is that 0z tonight has come in much stronger that yesterday’s. By next week we should have a clearer picture in direction and intensity. The 15th 0z had Grace as a 1006 mb TD meandering and dying out in the Gulf and Henri was a faint LLC by Saturday….

[SoupBone]

The Euro sends a sloppy mess into Tex/Mex, heading NW.