ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

[TheDreamTraveler]

I'm actually getting some rain from Henri right now due to all the rain on the western side but that's probably not going to last for very long, maybe a few hours. I know parts of PA/NJ are getting pounded though

[SecondBreakfast]

Nasty evening last night. There were stranded drivers and water rescues locally from the flash flooding turning roads into streams. Brooklyn was a mess last night. The ground is beyond saturated.

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=2 ... S51-LSROKX

[wxman57]

Recon reports indicate Henri has weakened to a TS with maybe 65 mph wind. FL winds are not translating to the surface well due to the cooler water. Still a significant impact, but winds may be only 60-65 mph over a small area at landfall. I do not expect the NHC to downgrade it in their next advisory. No reason to tell the coastal residents it is only a TS, don't worry about it.

[wxman57]

Big surprise - NHC downgraded Henri. 70 mph wind is generous, but they did downgrade it.

[NDG]

Big surprise - NHC downgraded Henri. 70 mph wind is generous, but they did downgrade it.

Media hates it, there goes their ratings

[wxman57]

Big surprise - NHC downgraded Henri. 70 mph wind is generous, but they did downgrade it.

Media hates it, there goes their ratings

I like it. So ends my 14th straight 12 hr day shift. I've aged by a year this morning. Never have my birthday off. Plan to take Mon-Wed off and possibly start advisories on future Ida in the SW Gulf by Thursday/Friday. Hope it behaves and stays down south like Grace.

I'm thinking coastal areas of CT/RI/MA will see some moderate TS wind this morning, maybe some 40-50 mph sustained on the coast, though some buoy may register 60-65 mph wind. Wind shouldn't be bad inland. Rain will be the main threat.

[NDG]

Henri is a great example that a storm can be over much warmer than average SSTs that at the end atmospheric conditions is what dictates the strength of a tropical system.
And then there is the actual SSTs before landfall, much warmer than average SSTs that are in the 70s are still sub 26C, not enough instability to maintain its strength when h50 temps are at -5 C, the same as in the deep tropics, is not going to cut it.

[AlphaToOmega]

In my home town, I am experiencing high amounts of the chemical known as dihydrogen monoxide (DHMO) coming down from the sky.

[aspen]

The massive last-minute east shift will spare me from any sustained TS winds, it seems. Unfortunately, it looks like rain will still be awful. TWC is calling for 2.0-4.5 inches between now and Monday, and the 5am NHC advisory calls for around 4 inches total.

This really sucks for the construction crew who are trying to repave a bunch of major roads in my town before school starts.

[NDG]

There is barely a breeze in western Long Island.

[GCANE]

As I mentioned last night, we did get that Cold Pool enhancement this morning creating a flash of deeper convection.
Warm core was able to stay intact on approach as it moved over colder water.
Deep convection has now formed on the northern eyewall with a drop of 1mb reported by recon.
Likely this will wash out before landfall.

[Woofde]

I'm at the RI/CT border by the coast. It's starting to pick up here. I'm not sure the roads are going to fare well in these winds, there are many tall lengthy trees leaning directly over them.

[tolakram]

saved loop

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1429421440755933193

[tolakram]

[cane5]

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/33fAx5R.gif

New York City could get a pretty fierce band fairly soon !

[Sciencerocks]

[tolakram]

Henri is a great example that a storm can be over much warmer than average SSTs that at the end atmospheric conditions is what dictates the strength of a tropical system.
And then there is the actual SSTs before landfall, much warmer than average SSTs that are in the 70s are still sub 26C, not enough instability to maintain its strength when h50 temps are at -5 C, the same as in the deep tropics, is not going to cut it.

I disagree, or maybe misunderstand your post? Storms do not look "good" this far north, and if water temperatures were normal Henri would be a sloppy low end tropical storm while instead it's showing signs of organization all the way in. We have a really bad habit of downplaying storms based on looks. Review the Sandy (much larger storm) images near landfall.