2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Hammy]

Suddenly the Euro decides it's June.

[aspen]

The 0/10 AOI and the CAG Gulf system are supported by both the operational and ensemble models, although the OP models only show weak development. The 0/10 wave stalls around in the subtropics for a while, and reminds me a lot of the track of Lee ‘17.

GFS and Euro show the 0/10 and CAG systems. 00z CMC has three systems by August 31st and a fourth about to develop from a recently emerged AEW, just like last run. The ICON also shows the MDR system the CMC and ensembles have hinted at. The EPS shows all four systems the 12z and 00z CMC runs have, although the MDR system recurves earlier and the 0/10 system is barely there.

[NDG]

Track of the future W Carib system will depend a lot on how quickly it strengthens and how strong is ridging going to be in the eastern US, which the GEFS is trending towards a stronger ridge than earlier forecasted.

[Clearcloudz]

06Z GEFS Ensemble

[SoupBone]

So far the GFS has the ridge pulling back some but is it enough to send the system more north? That ridge is going to be the key for Texas this season which is scary.

Looks like it reestablishes itself and the system is headed toward Mexico.

[Clearcloudz]

So far the GFS has the ridge pulling back some but is it enough to send the system more north? That ridge is going to be the key for Texas this season which is scary.

The ridge builds in very quickly saving Texas.

[SoupBone]

So far the GFS has the ridge pulling back some but is it enough to send the system more north? That ridge is going to be the key for Texas this season which is scary.

The ridge builds in very quickly saving Texas.

Yeah I really need to let model runs finish before posting.

It pulsed pretty hard then settled back in. It's still scary to think that this season in Texas will basically be dictated by its placement.

[Clearcloudz]

[cheezyWXguy]

So far the GFS has the ridge pulling back some but is it enough to send the system more north? That ridge is going to be the key for Texas this season which is scary.

The ridge builds in very quickly saving Texas.

Yeah I really need to let model runs finish before posting.

It pulsed pretty hard then settled back in. It's still scary to think that this season in Texas will basically be dictated by its placement.

There are two main things on the 12z gfs that I think are worth noting that could could put a more northern track in play. Fortunately they don’t look likely but are probably worth mentioning.

1) the gfs starts genesis with 2 areas, one sw near the coast of Central America, and one ne near Jamaica. If time goes on and the ne area becomes favored, the system has a head start on northward movement, even if the high in the near term continues the trend of pushing it west.

2) At hour 168, the high over Texas starts to retreat, and the gfs depicts a slight northward bend during that time. If the system takes longer to develop, doesn’t move as quickly, or the high is weaker than modeled, then that bend could occur earlier before landfall.

Again, I don’t think either of these are particularly likely, but they are variables to consider while we are in this early speculation phase

[Clearcloudz]

12Z CMC out to 150 Hours

[Clearcloudz]

12Z CMC Hours 150 to 186

[IcyTundra]

I'm thinking it will be a Grace like track but probably further north landfall closer to North Mexico.

[SoupBone]

Did anyone else notice that the GEFS seems that system into Mexico then some left over energy heads up toward Houston?

[cheezyWXguy]

Did anyone else notice that the GEFS seems that system into Mexico then some left over energy heads up toward Houston?

I did, it looks like it’s associated with a system that moves north out of the epac that a few members are latching onto. One thing is clear over this run, and previous runs of the gefs. There is a signal that something is bound to get into the western gulf between now and September 10

[Clearcloudz]

12Z ECMWF hours 144 to 216

[Iceresistance]

I've have noticed one thing with the models after the 12z run

There is consistency for a Tropical cyclone to develop next week near the GoM
Most models do agree for development, but there is some disagreement on how strong & location of the system
12z ICON has this into the Western GoM & heading towards Texas as a weak Tropical Storm
12z CMC has this as a 984 MB Hurricane into Northern Mexico
12z GFS takes it into the BoC, 994 MB Strong Tropical Storm & makes landfall near where Hurricane Grace came ashore a week before
12z Euro is similar in strength to the GFS, but is farther north

I do want to mention the models hinting more development later next week & into the 1st week of September, but it's to far out to tell & the consistency is not very high, but I don't want to take any chances with this . . .

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[Clearcloudz]

12 GEFS Ensemble

[hurricane2025]

I just don’t buy the ridge being that strong for the next 7-10 days

[Cpv17]

The 00Z GFS sends this system into extreme southern Mexico, with the ridge firmly in place. We all know this is still a ways away, but I have at least slightly more faith in the GFS due to it getting that ridge for Grace in place way earlier than other models. Let's see if the GEFS responds or stays with that northern route into Texas.

I highly doubt that solution will verify. I think it is more likely that the ridge will break down over Texas and shift to the east later this week. I think this will be hitting at least northern Mexico. Troughing has been the dominant feature this summer over Texas so I doubt the ridge will stay long.

We've been under a stout ridge in Texas for the last month and a half. That troughing hasn't been present to any significant degree since mid-June. It was bad in May as the rain never stopped. The GFS was correct for Grace with the ridge.

CMC is also way south now and heading to central Mexico, ridging firmly in place.

I’m not sure I agree with you about the ridge. My job in Fort Bend County has received about a foot of rain over the past month and places where I’m from in Wharton County have received 5-10” in the past month.

[IcyTundra]

I highly doubt that solution will verify. I think it is more likely that the ridge will break down over Texas and shift to the east later this week. I think this will be hitting at least northern Mexico. Troughing has been the dominant feature this summer over Texas so I doubt the ridge will stay long.

We've been under a stout ridge in Texas for the last month and a half. That troughing hasn't been present to any significant degree since mid-June. It was bad in May as the rain never stopped. The GFS was correct for Grace with the ridge.

CMC is also way south now and heading to central Mexico, ridging firmly in place.

I’m not sure I agree with you about the ridge. My job in Fort Bend County has received about a foot of rain over the past month and places where I’m from in Wharton County have received 5-10” in the past month.

Rainfall has been hit or miss across the Houston area this month SW Houston has been getting a lot of rainfall along with most of the city that is inside of the 610 loop. Down here in Galveston County we haven't had much rainfall at all.