CPAC: LINDA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429501747416879105?s=21

This is simply unacceptable.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429503874512166913

[Astromanía]

Kingarabian do you live in Oahu, right?

[Bocadude85]

Linda will have to either directly strike or pass to the south of us here in Honolulu for us to experience any of those TS winds…not looking like the Big Island or Maui will experience much more then some heavy rain.

[Kingarabian]

Linda will have to either directly strike or pass to the south of us here in Honolulu for us to experience any of those TS winds…not looking like the Big Island or Maui will experience much more then some heavy rain.

South of Oahu seems to be the consensus. That would bring the worst and prolonged effects to Oahu. Looks to be more of an event than Olivia 2018 and Douglas 2020.

[Kingarabian]

Former tropical cyclone Linda is still demonstrating a very healthy
appearance in the observational data this morning. The circulation
remains closed and a compact corridor gales and near-gales persist
north of the center. The system carries with it a deep reservoir of
moisture characterized by PWATs in excess of 2 inches that has been
fueling nocturnal flare-ups of convection within the north and
northwest flank. In the very near term, it evident from the morning
visible imagery and sounding out of Hilo that stability persists
over the area this morning. Although the inversion has weakened and
lifted to around 8kft, there is still work to be done in terms of
vanquishing the lingering stable airmass. It will take until mid-
afternoon for the deepest moisture around the low to reach Windward
Big Island and Maui. The reduced duration of heavy trade-like
showers will be most noticeable over the Hamakua Coast of Big Island
where expectations are somewhat tempered compared to yesterday.
Nonetheless, a general 2-3, locally 4 inches will still be possible
between about 2pm and 2am HST today/tonight and localized flooding
may still materialize. The greatest threat for flash flooding over
the Big Island will be associated with diurnally driven convection
and/or tstorms over the interior slopes both today and Monday.

As the low churns westward, strong northeasterlies along its lead
edge will come into closer proximity to the islands and will
generate an increasing coverage and intensity of windward showers.
Although the strongest winds will remain north of Maui County as the
low tracks north of the county, the wind field may be sufficiently
strong to generate gusts to wind advisory criteria (50 mph) in
favored locales. The steadily backing wind profile will also tend to
the limit the duration of higher end winds at any one location, but
a wind advisory for Maui County for tonight into early Monday will
still warrant strong consideration for the afternoon package.

As alluded to above, the northwestern and northern sections of the
system will carry the greatest threat for deep convection/isolated t-
storms capable of producing flash flooding and higher end winds,
and this portion of the low will likely affect Kauai and Oahu.
Therefore, gusts to advisory criteria as well as torrential rain
capable of producing flash flooding will be possible. The flash
flood threat will be greatest over windward areas, especially if
southwest flow aloft allows any deeper convection to become
anchored along the terrain. The forecast for pockets of around 10
inches of rain remain on target, and the potential for a wind
advisory for Oahu and Kauai for Monday will be evaluated for the
afternoon package. A return to a typical trade wind pattern can be
expected by Tuesday

Let's do the duck test on Linda... it looks like a TC, behaves like a TC...

[aspen]

Former tropical cyclone Linda is still demonstrating a very healthy
appearance in the observational data this morning. The circulation
remains closed and a compact corridor gales and near-gales persist
north of the center. The system carries with it a deep reservoir of
moisture characterized by PWATs in excess of 2 inches that has been
fueling nocturnal flare-ups of convection within the north and
northwest flank. In the very near term, it evident from the morning
visible imagery and sounding out of Hilo that stability persists
over the area this morning. Although the inversion has weakened and
lifted to around 8kft, there is still work to be done in terms of
vanquishing the lingering stable airmass. It will take until mid-
afternoon for the deepest moisture around the low to reach Windward
Big Island and Maui. The reduced duration of heavy trade-like
showers will be most noticeable over the Hamakua Coast of Big Island
where expectations are somewhat tempered compared to yesterday.
Nonetheless, a general 2-3, locally 4 inches will still be possible
between about 2pm and 2am HST today/tonight and localized flooding
may still materialize. The greatest threat for flash flooding over
the Big Island will be associated with diurnally driven convection
and/or tstorms over the interior slopes both today and Monday.

As the low churns westward, strong northeasterlies along its lead
edge will come into closer proximity to the islands and will
generate an increasing coverage and intensity of windward showers.
Although the strongest winds will remain north of Maui County as the
low tracks north of the county, the wind field may be sufficiently
strong to generate gusts to wind advisory criteria (50 mph) in
favored locales. The steadily backing wind profile will also tend to
the limit the duration of higher end winds at any one location, but
a wind advisory for Maui County for tonight into early Monday will
still warrant strong consideration for the afternoon package.

As alluded to above, the northwestern and northern sections of the
system will carry the greatest threat for deep convection/isolated t-
storms capable of producing flash flooding and higher end winds,
and this portion of the low will likely affect Kauai and Oahu.
Therefore, gusts to advisory criteria as well as torrential rain
capable of producing flash flooding will be possible. The flash
flood threat will be greatest over windward areas, especially if
southwest flow aloft allows any deeper convection to become
anchored along the terrain. The forecast for pockets of around 10
inches of rain remain on target, and the potential for a wind
advisory for Oahu and Kauai for Monday will be evaluated for the
afternoon package. A return to a typical trade wind pattern can be
expected by Tuesday

Let's do the duck test on Linda... it looks like a TC, behaves like a TC...

Are they seriously that lazy and refuse to write advisories for a clearly regenerating TC?

No wonder why CPac parts of TCRs take so long to be completed.

[tolakram]

Stop calling them lazy on here. I agree it's frustrating but there's no need for name calling.

[Kingarabian]

Still a TS.

[Yellow Evan]

Tbf that’s well removed from the convective mass. Seemed to be stronger yesterday.

[Astromanía]

Tbf that’s well removed from the convective mass. Seemed to be stronger yesterday.

There is high shear now no wonder

[Kingarabian]

Tbf that’s well removed from the convective mass. Seemed to be stronger yesterday.

Probably 35kts today. Yesterday was 40kts.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429505748502028295

[Kingarabian]

Some of the thinking within the private sector is Darby-esque impacts for Oahu. How serious the effects from Linda will be: where exactly it tracks and how much convective flareups there are.

12z Euro had 52mph gusts for Kauai and around 45mph gusts for Oahu. Average trade wind speeds for the islands is usually 15mph. There should've been warnings up which would've recommend residents to secure items.

If Linda looks like this when it goes over either Molokai/Oahu/Kauai, residents are going to get much more than passing trade wind showers.



SST's get warmer and warmer closer to the islands while shear doesn't look like it will be more than 30kts.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status/1429594240141742089

[cycloneye]

They are keeping pace on Best Track.

12E LINDA 210823 0000 21.0N 153.8W EPAC 40 1006

[Kingarabian]

They are keeping pace on Best Track.

12E LINDA 210823 0000 21.0N 153.8W EPAC 40 1006

Look like they went back up to 40kts. They're maintaining it on BTK but don't acknowledge it in their TWO's. Bizarre.

[Kingarabian]

Rain bands slowly moving in.

[Kingarabian]

Wind advisory up for Kauai/Oahu/Maui county.

[Bocadude85]

Wind advisory up for Maui, Oahu and Kauai, 25-30mph sustained with gusts to 50mph is what they are saying… basically be prepared for a low end tropical storm impact.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1429603712322965514