2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Cpv17]

We've been under a stout ridge in Texas for the last month and a half. That troughing hasn't been present to any significant degree since mid-June. It was bad in May as the rain never stopped. The GFS was correct for Grace with the ridge.

CMC is also way south now and heading to central Mexico, ridging firmly in place.

I’m not sure I agree with you about the ridge. My job in Fort Bend County has received about a foot of rain over the past month and places where I’m from in Wharton County have received 5-10” in the past month.

Rainfall has been hit or miss across the Houston area this month SW Houston has been getting a lot of rainfall along with most of the city that is inside of the 610 loop. Down here in Galveston County we haven't had much rainfall at all.

The immediate coastline hasn’t seen jack. All the rain has been further inland.

[Clearcloudz]

I’m not sure I agree with you about the ridge. My job in Fort Bend County has received about a foot of rain over the past month and places where I’m from in Wharton County have received 5-10” in the past month.

Rainfall has been hit or miss across the Houston area this month SW Houston has been getting a lot of rainfall along with most of the city that is inside of the 610 loop. Down here in Galveston County we haven't had much rainfall at all.

The immediate coastline hasn’t seen jack. All the rain has been further inland.

I live in Fort Bend County as well and I can see we had some decent rain each week this summer keeping the temperatures somewhat in check. Normally the heat here can get intense.

[wxman22]

I’m not sure I agree with you about the ridge. My job in Fort Bend County has received about a foot of rain over the past month and places where I’m from in Wharton County have received 5-10” in the past month.

Rainfall has been hit or miss across the Houston area this month SW Houston has been getting a lot of rainfall along with most of the city that is inside of the 610 loop. Down here in Galveston County we haven't had much rainfall at all.

The immediate coastline hasn’t seen jack. All the rain has been further inland.

So im not the only one that noticed that this Summer... It seems like the sea breeze keeps firing up only once its passed the coast and moves about 10 miles or so inland.Good for us inland, but sucks for those at the coast.

[hicksta]

I'm thinking it will be a Grace like track but probably further north landfall closer to North Mexico.

Storm hasn’t even developed yet. Impossible to say a likely landfall

[Clearcloudz]

12Z Ensemble

[gatorcane]

Models are showing quite a ridge keeping whatever forms, if anything forms, far to the south in Mexico and the BoC again, for now. Considering they just had major hurricane Grace, would be some more salt in the wounds for them.

[Clearcloudz]

12Z GEPS (Canadian model) Ensembles

[aspen]

We might have our first MDR long-tracker on the horizon.

The GFS, Euro, ensembles, and CMC all show a vigorous tropical wave emerging into the E Atl on August 31st, and different models show varying degrees of development. The 12z Euro is the most aggressive and shows a named storm near the Cabo Verde islands on September 1st; its ensembles are also very excited about the wave. The CMC also has a TC at the turn of the month, and while the GFS doesn’t show development, the wave is still there.

Right now it’s too far out to determine the exact track of that. However, since models have been consistently underestimating ridges this year, I’m doubtful this will be an early recurve.

[ChrisH-UK]

The models are showing something forming up between in the south west Carribean (Venezuela to Nicaragua). However any thing in the models that start in that area has the general trend to move westward in subsequent models.

[IcyTundra]

We might have our first MDR long-tracker on the horizon.

The GFS, Euro, ensembles, and CMC all show a vigorous tropical wave emerging into the E Atl on August 31st, and different models show varying degrees of development. The 12z Euro is the most aggressive and shows a named storm near the Cabo Verde islands on September 1st; its ensembles are also very excited about the wave. The CMC also has a TC at the turn of the month, and while the GFS doesn’t show development, the wave is still there.

Right now it’s too far out to determine the exact track of that. However, since models have been consistently underestimating ridges this year, I’m doubtful this will be an early recurve.

Yeah I remember when Matthew, Irma, and Florence were all suppose to curve OTS and we all know what happened with those 3. The gfs does have a tendency to underestimate ridging and the euro sometimes has that issue.

[Hammy]

GFS seems like it's starting to gradually increase the number of potential systems in the long range--usually a sign things are changing.

[IcyTundra]

GFS seems like it's starting to gradually increase the number of potential systems in the long range--usually a sign things are changing.

True the GFS is usually slow to pick up on the pattern changing to more favorable conditions.

[cheezyWXguy]

The 18z gefs continues the onslaught of the western gulf through the period. A Mexico hit during the period is likely a given at this point, but I will be quite surprised if there isn’t a landfall somewhere between Brownsville and New Orleans by Sept 10

[lsuhurricane]

The 18z gefs continues the onslaught of the western gulf through the period. A Mexico hit during the period is likely a given at this point, but I will be quite surprised if there isn’t a landfall somewhere between Brownsville and New Orleans by Sept 10

I agree.

The Caribbean and GOM just keeps on reloading according to the 18z GEFS. Matches up with the modeling indicators that have been presented in the past week.
You can bet that the death ridge wont be in place for that entire time period.

[Clearcloudz]

18Z GEFS Ensemble

[Blown Away]

GFS is not stop showing hurricanes in the EPAC.

[cheezyWXguy]

From the DFW forecast discussion:

Most guidance shows that the ridge will shift north later this week. As a result, we will see isolated showers and storms sneaking into our southern/eastern counties. Better rain chances appear to arrive late in the weekend and into the following week with the potential for organized convection from easterly waves.

The ridge breakdown is going to be a wildcard, and if it’s not this system it could be the next

[sma10]

And in reading the 18z GFS Op run, it shows TC genesis in the W Carib on Aug 26, Sep 1 and Sep 6. I have never seen rapid fire formation in that particular region in late Aug/early Sep ... so I'll believe that when I see it. Still, it shows how favorable that area is compared to MDR

[lsuhurricane]

0z ICON brings future Ida over Eastern Cuba. Huge shift north and east. Let’s see if this marks a trend of a weakening ridge.

[IcyTundra]

0z ICON brings future Ida over Eastern Cuba. Huge shift north and east. Let’s see if this marks a trend of a weakening ridge.

I think you mean Western Cuba but yeah you're right about it being way further east. ICON isn't the best but it has been decent this year.