2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Clearcloudz]

00Z Icon Headed toward Louisiana

[IcyTundra]

Looks like the 0Z ICON is way further North and East approaching Grand Isle, Louisiana as a 981 MB hurricane.

[sma10]

Yeah let's see if GFS and CMC also shift.

And surely there is enough modeled evidence for NHC to throw a lemon in this area soon?

[IcyTundra]

Yeah let's see if GFS and CMC also shift.

And surely there is enough modeled evidence for NHC to throw a lemon in this area soon?

NHC will probably put a lemon sometime tomorrow at the latest they will do it Tuesday.

[South Texas Storms]

Development chances in the northwestern Caribbean and southwestern Gulf of Mexico are likely above 50% over the next week. This system has ample model agreement to be pretty confident that at least a tropical storm will form. Now where it will go and how strong it will be remains unknown at this time and probably will for at least a few more days.

[IcyTundra]

Looks like the 00Z GFS develops that 0/10 AOI in the subtropics. Could either be Ida or Julian depending on if it develops before or after the W Carribean/ SW Gulf storm.

[cheezyWXguy]

00Z Icon Headed toward Louisiana

https://i.imgur.com/MfTlnAH.gif

I find this run interesting because of a point I touched on in a post earlier today. These models seem to be depicting two initial areas of focus, a southwestern one near Central America and a northeastern one near Jamaica. The icon seems to be consistently favoring the northeastern area, while the gfs favors the southwestern, resulting in quite a difference in depicted track. Each seems equally plausible at this point, and although the icon isn’t given as high regard, it has performed pretty well over the last two seasons.

[IcyTundra]

GFS still favors the center forming farther south going over the Southern Yucatan Peninsula. We can only hope that the GFS solution is close to what actually happens as the ceiling of this storm would be signifcantly lower than if it formed further north going through the Yucatan Channel into the gulf.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS peaks the 0/10 at 984mb and the BOC system at 989mb

[IcyTundra]

00Z CMC also develops the 0/10 area. 00Z CMC. 00Z CMC sends the SW Carribean storm into extreme North Mexico near the TX/Mexico border.

[cheezyWXguy]

00Z CMC also develops the 0/10 area. 00Z CMC. 00Z CMC sends the SW Carribean storm into extreme North Mexico near the TX/Mexico border.

Interesting that it gets that far north, despite the southwestern area developing. You can see the northeastern area wrap around it and get pushed into the mid Texas coast. As for the gfs, despite depicting a weaker high at both the surface and 500mb this run, it doesn’t get much further north. It seems to be the southernmost model at the moment. Also, since the gfs has a tendency toward developing CAGs, and over developing epac systems, it may be overemphasizing a southern track.

[SouthFLTropics]

Pretty amazing that the GFS continues to spit out a storm in the western Caribbean and move it in the same general direction run after run. And then spins up another one and takes it towards Brownsville and drops it all the way down to 931MB late in the run.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[toad strangler]

0z ICON brings future Ida over Eastern Cuba. Huge shift north and east. Let’s see if this marks a trend of a weakening ridge.

I think you mean Western Cuba but yeah you're right about it being way further east. ICON isn't the best but it has been decent this year.

Icon was awful with Henri

[Shell Mound]

We might have our first MDR long-tracker on the horizon.

The GFS, Euro, ensembles, and CMC all show a vigorous tropical wave emerging into the E Atl on August 31st, and different models show varying degrees of development. The 12z Euro is the most aggressive and shows a named storm near the Cabo Verde islands on September 1st; its ensembles are also very excited about the wave. The CMC also has a TC at the turn of the month, and while the GFS doesn’t show development, the wave is still there.

Right now it’s too far out to determine the exact track of that. However, since models have been consistently underestimating ridges this year, I’m doubtful this will be an early recurve.

They are not underestimating ridging, but intensifying storms too quickly, hence W corrections.

[kevin]

00z GFS is quite active with 3 systems in the next 2 weeks. Considering that models often underestimated TS genesis this year, this could be a sign of continued activity. Interestingly, no MDR storms but only storms further north or in the WCar.
*Ida: WCar system, forms on Friday the 27th, TS Yucatan landfall, followed by 989 mbar central Mexico landfall on Monday
*Julian: Northern Atlantic system, forms on Friday the 27th, peaks at 984 mbar, doesn't impact land
*Kate: WCar system, forms on Thursday the 2nd of September, peaks at 931 mbar, landfall Northern Mexico

[Kohlecane]

Well it is interesting with the ensembles all indicating moderate activity within the next two weeks, not unheard of for Late/early Aug/Sep during an expected above avg season. So as of now W. Caribbean/BOC/WGOM areas to watch this upcoming weekend, agree with above should see a lemon later today if trend continues through 6z/12z and even 18z if it's not up by then would fit with chances of 5 day development, and as I'm typing I see on my other tab that there is one now . As for the next big potential on the GFS in the GOM lets see if this trend continues and others find it similar over the next 2-3 days referring to the area developing in W. Caribbean at 234h still 10 days out but it is consistent in keeping it rolling through into the GOM as of now, only thing I'm skeptical of is seeing a Cat 4 headed into just south of TX/MX border. we shall see. BTW this is secretly one of my favorite threads has been for years, you get good knowledge from it, even if most of these are "Fantasy Land"

[Kohlecane]

Comparing 6Z yesterday that ridge seems to wanna break down a tad over TX, we will see if trend continues, of course only looking at hr 156 so who know 2 frames later and it could build back, just something important to watch. also I'm also curious if that L in the EPAC south of MX will have an impact on direction
EDIT: weaker ridge over TX GFS has a northern shift in LF in northern MX, similar to the CMC 00Z

[Kohlecane]

FWIW : 00z GFS/EURO/UKMET/CMC have ridge built into the central GOM almost spanning from S and central TX to W cuba, CMC being a bit of the outlier in the 00z having it span from E TX LA border to W Cuba, with the new 6Z GFS bringing this system more N closer to TX/MX border(Northern Mexico mainly) should be interesting if the other models start showing this breakdown in their upcoming runs.

[NDG]

What a joke the CFS weekly forecast has become, even at its 1-2 week short range.

[kevin]

06z GFS keeps the 2 WCar storms I mentioned earlier. First one still into Mexico (forms at +108, landfall at +186) with 985 mbar. Second one into East Texas this time (forms at +198, landfall at +330) with 955 mbar.