ATL: JULIAN - Post-Tropical

[Nancy Smar]

2021-08-23 12:00 16.9 -38.0 25

http://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al972021

[AlphaToOmega]

The CMC supports development of this system. SSTs seem conducive enough for development in the subtropics.

[Iceresistance]

Please don't confuse it with the Caribbean Tropical Wave that could develop later this week in the Western Caribbean

[underthwx]

The CMC supports development of this system. SSTs seem conducive enough for development in the subtropics.

Should development occur with this system...any thoughts on a potential track?...I'm not familiar with the steering patterns in that area...thanks

[aspen]

This could get quite close to Bermuda. SSTs are quite high in this part of the subtropics, so it’s possible this becomes another high-latitude hurricane.

[Sciencerocks]

[AlphaToOmega]

The CMC supports development of this system. SSTs seem conducive enough for development in the subtropics.

Should development occur with this system...any thoughts on a potential track?...I'm not familiar with the steering patterns in that area...thanks

It would most likely recurve out to sea. Hurricane Henri has created a weakness in the subtropical ridge, so storms will likely have an easier time curving out to sea.

[cycloneye]

Please don't confuse it with the Caribbean Tropical Wave that could develop later this week in the Western Caribbean

There is no confusión. Here is the ATCF data.

AL, 97, 2021082312, , BEST, 0, 169N, 380W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 023, SPAWNINVEST, al752021 to al972021,

[cheezyWXguy]

12z icon gets this to 964mb by hour 138. Was not expecting that

[ElectricStorm]

At first I didn't think this would do much but I'm rethinking that now. Has good model support, and SST's look good once it gets out of the SAL. Looks like it could be a race to Ida between this and the Caribbean/Gulf system. As long as it stays away from Bermuda, I'll be rooting for this one.

[Teban54]

At first I didn't think this would do much but I'm rethinking that now. Has good model support, and SST's look good once it gets out of the SAL. Looks like it could be a race to Ida between this and the Caribbean/Gulf system. As long as it stays away from Bermuda, I'll be rooting for this one.

Unfortunately I have a gut feeling that the Caribbean system will develop early, take the name Ida and bomb out, because it's the I name. Hope I'm wrong though.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[zhukm29]

At first I didn't think this would do much but I'm rethinking that now. Has good model support, and SST's look good once it gets out of the SAL. Looks like it could be a race to Ida between this and the Caribbean/Gulf system. As long as it stays away from Bermuda, I'll be rooting for this one.

Unfortunately I have a gut feeling that the Caribbean system will develop early, take the name Ida and bomb out, because it's the I name. Hope I'm wrong though.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Just a bit of fun trivia, the Caribbean system (if it develops) will take on a "cursed" name regardless of whether it develops first or second. If it develops first, it would take on the dreaded 'I' name, which is why gut feeling may lead one to think that the Caribbean threat will steal Ida. But the 'J' name on this particular list is cursed as well, with two consecutive retirements in a row (Juan and Joaquin).

Regardless of the name, this invest looks to be a good ACE maker if it takes advantage of better conditions down the road.

[OuterBanker]

It will break the 20/60 rule.
Destined to be a fish (there are rare exceptions).

[Kazmit]

So this is what I’ve been seeing in the swell forecast. Hopefully it brings some good waves and doesn’t come to close to Bermuda.

[abajan]

Please don't confuse it with the Caribbean Tropical Wave that could develop later this week in the Western Caribbean

I'm now missing the old Storm2K map, because it used to show the location of each invest.

[abajan]

It will break the 20/60 rule.
Destined to be a fish (there are rare exceptions).

I think the latest runs of the Euro and GFS both show it skirting awfully close to the Azores.

[AnnularCane]

Please don't confuse it with the Caribbean Tropical Wave that could develop later this week in the Western Caribbean

I'm now missing the old Storm2K map, because it used to show the location of each invest.

I'm just now thinking that same thing! Which invest is which?

[Sciencerocks]

[Zonacane]

I spy a defined LLC. Needs more convection.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It is getting eaten alive by SAL and dry air all around it