Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean (Is Invest 99L)

[Ubuntwo]

Models have been quite persistent with this interacting with the monsoon trough and developing in the W Caribbean -> Gulf.



18z GFS


12z EURO


12z EPS


18z GEFS

[galaxy401]

Might be the catalyst for future action. NHC is now noticing:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the western
Caribbean Sea late this week. Environmental conditions are expected
to be favorable for gradual development of this system thereafter
while it moves west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[ouragans]

2. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become favorable for gradual development while the system moves west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[NDG]

With such model support for development not surprising the NHC is already mentioning this TW.

[NDG]

Strong ridging will protect East Coast & FL along most of the gulf coast from this TW developing in the western Caribbean, southern TX is still up in the air.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:


An active tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean.
Its axis is along 63W and extends from the northern Leeward
Islands into eastern Venezuela. The wave is producing scattered
showers and thunderstorms, particularly from 10N-15N between 55W-
68W. This convective activity is affecting the Windward Islands
and regional waters. The wave is also enhancing scattered showers
and thunderstorms over eastern Venezuela. Fresh to strong NE
winds are noted per scatterometer data ahead of the wave axis. The
wave will reach the Mona Passage tonight, but the associated
moisture is forecast to remain well south of Puerto Rico.

[Category5Kaiju]

At this point my thinking is it won't necessarily follow Grace's track and enter the BoC but rather take a more northerly route, so we'll see. Kind of basing this idea off of the fact that some were expecting Grace to follow Fred and end up like a Fred 2.0, but that did not happen. Hence, I am going to be kind of cautious and go with the idea that a trailing storm will not take the same exact path as the leading storm as the most statistically likely outcome and that this upcoming AOI may become a South Texas or North Mexico threat.

[aspen]

I’ve mentioned this before, but we should definitely watch out for development occurring earlier than expected. The CMC and ICON show this becoming a TD or TS by the end of the week while it’s still in the SW Caribbean. This could have major impacts on its track, as in the 00z CMC run, it only clips the eastern tip of the Yucatán and has more time over water. There’s also a chance it has a Michael-like track that misses the Yucatán entirely.

[aspen]

Here's the most recent CDAS SST map (it's decent with Watl SSTs) with possible locations in 3-4 days and 4-7 days marked, as well as different model tracks listed.


A lot of possibilities are on the table as of now, from a piece of sloppy tropical moisture running over most of Central America with minimal time to develop, to something that develops earlier and further east in the SW Caribbean and misses the Yucatan entirely. The CMC and ICON appear to develop this quicker than the GFS (and definitely a lot faster than the ever-bearish Euro), which might explain their right-shifted tracks. If those were to verify, we could see another storm making a run for a major. The leftmost track options will be the best case scenario by limiting development and passing over the "cold" wake left by Grace.

[Kohlecane]

Here's the most recent CDAS SST map (it's decent with Watl SSTs) with possible locations in 3-4 days and 4-7 days marked, as well as different model tracks listed.
https://i.imgur.com/189QrLV.png

A lot of possibilities are on the table as of now, from a piece of sloppy tropical moisture running over most of Central America with minimal time to develop, to something that develops earlier and further east in the SW Caribbean and misses the Yucatan entirely. The CMC and ICON appear to develop this quicker than the GFS (and definitely a lot faster than the ever-bearish Euro), which might explain their right-shifted tracks. If those were to verify, we could see another storm making a run for a major. The leftmost track options will be the best case scenario by limiting development and passing over the "cold" wake left by Grace.

if those are operational lines then the 6z gfs brings it N for landfall around CMC, still great point with the sst's we know how quick Grace made a go in 24 hours

[lsuhurricane]

12z GFS completely buries this into MX.

12z ICON brings this near the MX/TX border.

Suppression of this disturbance appears likely.

[Shell Mound]

12z GFS completely buries this into MX.

12z ICON brings this near the MX/TX border.

Suppression of this disturbance appears likely.

The possibility of repeated Mexican impacts is reminiscent of years such as 1933 and 1955, both of which produced extensive flooding on the Mexican mainland.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected
to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast
to become favorable for gradual development while the system moves
west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Kludge]

12Z Euro looks concerning for Texas

[South Texas Storms]

12Z Euro looks concerning for Texas

Yep, sure does. Takes a likely hurricane to Matagorda Bay next Tuesday.

[Kohlecane]

12Z Euro looks concerning for Texas

Wants to develop and send open waves everywhere else, so this is very interesting

[wxman22]

12Z EURO

[lsuhurricane]

Only a few GFS members show stronger ensemble members moving north, but Euro has plenty. Interesting times ahead indeed.

[Kludge]

12Z Euro looks concerning for Texas

Yep, sure does. Takes a likely hurricane to Matagorda Bay next Tuesday.

987 at my house shown at hour 216

[lsuhurricane]

Seems like ensemble spread is increasing, not decreasing. 12z Canadian ensembles: