ATL: KATE - Remnants - Discussion

[grapealcoholic]

Should see big shifts in the 18z runs if they pick up on what's going on here

[Nimbus]

If it develops it should follow 97L through the weakness in the ridge according to the early model runs.
Sometimes they miss if the timing is wrong and they are far enough apart but I'm assuming they think 97l will be moving slower.

[Blown Away]

Not a bad looking Invest... Super low latitude, might see that cone bend W over time IMO...

[weeniepatrol]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1429930553646718988

[Hammy]

Is there any actual model support? Seems to get squashed by the easterlies behind it.

[cycloneye]

3. A low pressure area over the far eastern tropical Atlantic about 500
miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is
possible over the next several days while the disturbance moves
westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[ScottNAtlanta]

If it develops it should follow 97L through the weakness in the ridge according to the early model runs.
Sometimes they miss if the timing is wrong and they are far enough apart but I'm assuming they think 97l will be moving slower.

That would be assuming 97L develops which doesn't look nearly as likely

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2021082400, , BEST, 0, 76N, 233W, 25, 1009, LO

[Blown Away]

AL, 98, 2021082400, , BEST, 0, 76N, 233W, 25, 1009, LO

Pretty big jump in latitude, definitely recurving.

[Iceresistance]

AL, 98, 2021082400, , BEST, 0, 76N, 233W, 25, 1009, LO

Pretty big jump in latitude, definitely recurving.

I think it was meant to be 7.6°N & 23.3°W . . .

[grapealcoholic]

DMAX doing work.

[galaxy401]

Up to 20/40.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 24 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located
about 500 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. This
activity has become a bit better organized tonight, and some
additional development is possible over the next several days while
this system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

looking good!

[Sciencerocks]

[aspen]

Still doing decent. However, with the exception of the 00z HWRF run, no model develops this. Seems that it gets sucked into the break in the ridge created by 97L too quickly, throwing it into marginal SSTs and dry air.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is along 24W/25W, from 20N southward, moving W at
10 to 15 knots. A 1009 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near
08N. The wave is producing a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms mainly from 06N-11N between 25W-30W. This convective
activity has become a bit better organized during the overnight
hours, and some additional development is possible over the next
several days while this system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 kt over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The latest
Tropical Weather Outlook states that this system has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 5 days.

[cycloneye]

Down to 30%.

Another tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic located
about 400 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is
producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Some
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. Upper-level winds are
forecast to become less conducive for development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Blown Away]

Still looks decent on the IR... My guess 98L will remain shallow and move more W under 97L and maybe an issue once past 50W in a week or so,,,