Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean (Is Invest 99L)

[NDG]

Only a few GFS members show stronger ensemble members moving north, but Euro has plenty. Interesting times ahead indeed.

https://i.ibb.co/Rp9WL3C/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Gulf-of-Mexico-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-1.gif

Safe to say that the future system's track will dictate how quickly it gets strong, the stronger it gets the more it will feel a weakness in the ridge to the north over the plains.

[psyclone]

The prospect of west gulf action in late August is...oh so climo. Something is probably going to happen.

[Rgv20]

Only a few GFS members show stronger ensemble members moving north, but Euro has plenty. Interesting times ahead indeed.

https://i.ibb.co/Rp9WL3C/14-km-EPS-Global-Cyclones-Gulf-of-Mexico-Ens-MSLP-Spaghettios-1.gif

Safe to say that the future system's track will dictate how quickly it gets strong, the stronger it gets the more it will feel a weakness in the ridge to the north over the plains.

https://i.imgur.com/veKnpm5.gif

Another thing that my amateurs eyes are seeing is that the slower speed it goes the more northern it would trend and the faster speed the more West/West North West it would go.

[SoupBone]

So is this the wave that the models have been showing? Are any models being initialized on its "center"?

[IcyTundra]

If this thing avoids land interaction watch out it has the potential to absolutely blow up in the gulf.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1429910188648140802

[Clearcloudz]

Latest EURO run got my blood pumping here in Houston. Should be interesting to see how the coming days model wars play out.

[IcyTundra]

The Euro, Euro ensemble, Canadian Ensemble all favor seem to favor a more northern track towards Texas and Louisiana. ICON was also showing a track into Louisiana on the 00Z run last night. GFS operational favors a far southern track close to where Grace made landfall while a lot of the GFS ensemble members show a track into Northern Mexico or South Texas.

[IcyTundra]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1429889686538002433

[underthwx]

Seems like ensemble spread is increasing, not decreasing. 12z Canadian ensembles:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem-ens/2021082312/gem-ememb_lowlocs_watl_32.png

Just need to keep a lookout....see how things develop in the coming days...

[StormPyrate]

So the two other orange areas are invests now but this one isn’t?

[aspen]

So the two other orange areas are invests now but this one isn’t?

I believe the east Caribbean wave is expected to merge with and form a different low pressure system. Once that forms, then it’ll get an invest tag, especially since the odds of genesis would probably be at least 60% by then.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1429929882822356993

[AlphaToOmega]

A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a
broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by
late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for gradual development while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Rgv20]

WPC Day 7 valid Monday 12z....Usually has a good idea of what the NHC is thinking for the longer range.

[Cpv17]

WPC Day 7 valid Monday 12z....Usually has a good idea of what the NHC is thinking for the longer range.

https://i.imgur.com/TIvbQT7.gif

Looks like they’re leaning more towards the GFS.

[Rgv20]

WPC Day 7 valid Monday 12z....Usually has a good idea of what the NHC is thinking for the longer range.

https://i.imgur.com/TIvbQT7.gif

Looks like they’re leaning more towards the GFS.

Can't ignore the consistency of the GFS so far and of note the 12zUKMET also has this potential TC way south in the BOC by Sunday Morning. I do think that come Monday to Tuesday if something is still in the Western GOM it will try to move more northerly by then.


NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion.


NHC has continued to increase the potential for tropical cyclone
development in the western Carribean Sea later this week. The
trend in the model guidance has been consistent in developing a
tropical cyclone either in the western Carribean Sea or Bay of
Campeche/SW Gulf region over the weekend into Monday. Recent 12Z
GFS and CMC trends have shifted their TC tracks further south
while the ECMWF has shifted its track much further north. One of
the keys to the forecast, similar to Hurricane Grace, will be the
strength of the subtropical ridge situated across the Deep South
and Northern Gulf Coast region. For now, we will obviously
continue to monitor.

Either way, will continue to go with a "wet" forecast for Sunday
into Monday as the consensus solutions (NBM) forecast 40-60% PoPs
given the approach of the tropical cyclone to our southeast. The
potential for more rain from this system than from Grace appears
to be increasing. This lines up with WPC guidance as well.

[Cpv17]

WPC Day 7 valid Monday 12z....Usually has a good idea of what the NHC is thinking for the longer range.

https://i.imgur.com/TIvbQT7.gif

Looks like they’re leaning more towards the GFS.

Can't ignore the consistency of the GFS so far and of note the 12zUKMET also has this potential TC way south in the BOC by Sunday Morning. I do think that come Monday to Tuesday if something is still in the Western GOM it will try to move more northerly by then.


NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion.


NHC has continued to increase the potential for tropical cyclone
development in the western Carribean Sea later this week. The
trend in the model guidance has been consistent in developing a
tropical cyclone either in the western Carribean Sea or Bay of
Campeche/SW Gulf region over the weekend into Monday. Recent 12Z
GFS and CMC trends have shifted their TC tracks further south
while the ECMWF has shifted its track much further north. One of
the keys to the forecast, similar to Hurricane Grace, will be the
strength of the subtropical ridge situated across the Deep South
and Northern Gulf Coast region. For now, we will obviously
continue to monitor.

Either way, will continue to go with a "wet" forecast for Sunday
into Monday as the consensus solutions (NBM) forecast 40-60% PoPs
given the approach of the tropical cyclone to our southeast. The
potential for more rain from this system than from Grace appears
to be increasing. This lines up with WPC guidance as well.

Even if the GFS solution verifies and heads towards Mexico, it could actually put on its brakes right before the Mexican coastline and get pulled more northerly from an approaching trough and make a landfall in STX. That’s my prediction as of now.

[Cpv17]

Looks like they’re leaning more towards the GFS.

Can't ignore the consistency of the GFS so far and of note the 12zUKMET also has this potential TC way south in the BOC by Sunday Morning. I do think that come Monday to Tuesday if something is still in the Western GOM it will try to move more northerly by then.

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion.


NHC has continued to increase the potential for tropical cyclone
development in the western Carribean Sea later this week. The
trend in the model guidance has been consistent in developing a
tropical cyclone either in the western Carribean Sea or Bay of
Campeche/SW Gulf region over the weekend into Monday. Recent 12Z
GFS and CMC trends have shifted their TC tracks further south
while the ECMWF has shifted its track much further north. One of
the keys to the forecast, similar to Hurricane Grace, will be the
strength of the subtropical ridge situated across the Deep South
and Northern Gulf Coast region. For now, we will obviously
continue to monitor.

Either way, will continue to go with a "wet" forecast for Sunday
into Monday as the consensus solutions (NBM) forecast 40-60% PoPs
given the approach of the tropical cyclone to our southeast. The
potential for more rain from this system than from Grace appears
to be increasing. This lines up with WPC guidance as well.

Even if the GFS solution verifies and heads towards Mexico, it could actually put on its brakes right before the Mexican coastline and get pulled more northerly from an approaching trough and make a landfall in STX. That’s my prediction as of now.

That’s just my early guess for now. Plenty of time to watch it. Everything is just still too preliminary right now.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like they’re leaning more towards the GFS.

Can't ignore the consistency of the GFS so far and of note the 12zUKMET also has this potential TC way south in the BOC by Sunday Morning. I do think that come Monday to Tuesday if something is still in the Western GOM it will try to move more northerly by then.


NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion.


NHC has continued to increase the potential for tropical cyclone
development in the western Carribean Sea later this week. The
trend in the model guidance has been consistent in developing a
tropical cyclone either in the western Carribean Sea or Bay of
Campeche/SW Gulf region over the weekend into Monday. Recent 12Z
GFS and CMC trends have shifted their TC tracks further south
while the ECMWF has shifted its track much further north. One of
the keys to the forecast, similar to Hurricane Grace, will be the
strength of the subtropical ridge situated across the Deep South
and Northern Gulf Coast region. For now, we will obviously
continue to monitor.

Either way, will continue to go with a "wet" forecast for Sunday
into Monday as the consensus solutions (NBM) forecast 40-60% PoPs
given the approach of the tropical cyclone to our southeast. The
potential for more rain from this system than from Grace appears
to be increasing. This lines up with WPC guidance as well.

Even if the GFS solution verifies and heads towards Mexico, it could actually put on its brakes right before the Mexican coastline and get pulled more northerly from an approaching trough and make a landfall in STX. That’s my prediction as of now.

That is my thought as well.

Also, it seems totally up in the air as to whether the cag or the wave develops, or if they merge for that matter. I am constantly denouncing the idea of “all hail king euro”, especially when it comes to TCG, but I am leaning toward it this time and am skeptical of the gfs solution considering it’s bias toward cag activity. Still, it does have intermittent support from the icon and cmc.

I feel like we are going to be going back and forth on this until it’s already developed.