Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean (Is Invest 99L)

[IcyTundra]

It will be interesting to see if the Euro remains consistent with the Texas solution over the next few days. The GFS has been consistent with a landfall in Mexico a little further north than where Grace made landfall for several days now. It's too early to tell but I think the GFS is to far south and the Euro is to far north right now split the difference and you get a South Texas/Northern Mexico landfall.

[South Texas Storms]

It will be interesting to see if the Euro remains consistent with the Texas solution over the next few days. The GFS has been consistent with a landfall in Mexico a little further north than where Grace made landfall for several days now. It's too early to tell but I think the GFS is to far south and the Euro is to far north right now split the difference and you get a South Texas/Northern Mexico landfall.

That's my preliminary thinking so far as well. If I had to make a track forecast right now, I would probably favor somewhere near or just south of the TX/MX border early next week.

[ROCK]

It will be interesting to see if the Euro remains consistent with the Texas solution over the next few days. The GFS has been consistent with a landfall in Mexico a little further north than where Grace made landfall for several days now. It's too early to tell but I think the GFS is to far south and the Euro is to far north right now split the difference and you get a South Texas/Northern Mexico landfall.

I would agree with that also at this time. Love channel 26 news telling people don’t over react?? Then why show us the Euro run..lol

That's my preliminary thinking so far as well. If I had to make a track forecast right now, I would probably favor somewhere near or just south of the TX/MX border early next week.

[SoupBone]

It will be interesting to see if the Euro remains consistent with the Texas solution over the next few days. The GFS has been consistent with a landfall in Mexico a little further north than where Grace made landfall for several days now. It's too early to tell but I think the GFS is to far south and the Euro is to far north right now split the difference and you get a South Texas/Northern Mexico landfall.

I would agree with that also at this time. Love channel 26 news telling people don’t over react?? Then why show us the Euro run..lol

So they favor the GFS but showed the Euro?

[UTSARoadrunner4]

My worst-case scenario for the RGV may come to fruition with this disturbance: a Category 2+ landfalling on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande due East of Matamoros, causing onshore winds and higher surge for South Padre, Brownsville Ship Channel, Space X, and anything along the Laguna Madre.

[Rgv20]

18zECMWF Control run at Day 6 trended south compared to the 12zECMWF Operational and Control Run.

[ROCK]

It’s 7 days out with not discernible center so models in the long range are crap IMO..developing system yes. Track?? Who knows. Most globals are south currently. Didn’t see the UKMET today thou. Will get more into it tomorrow.

[IcyTundra]

00Z ICON is a 978 MB hurricane into Matagorda Bay way further north than the 12Z run but further west than the 0Z run from last which showed a Louisiana hit.

[aspen]

00Z ICON is a 978 MB hurricane into Matagorda Bay way further north than the 12Z run but further west than the 0Z run from last which showed a Louisiana hit.

That’s quite a concerning track. It won’t get buried in Mexico, and even though it starts out weak, it’ll get nearly 2 full days over the 30-31C waters of the Gulf — more time than Grace had. Any additional time over water could make this more of a problem for Texas or northern Mexico.

[Clearcloudz]

00Z ICON Model Run

[IcyTundra]

GFS still in favor of the more southern track.

[ElectricStorm]

Future Nora in the EPAC may limit this to some extent depending on how strong it gets. That being said, as we all know, any storm that gets into the gulf can get strong, especially if it takes a more northern track. The ridge has been pretty strong so far though so I'm leaning a bit more towards the southern track for now but that could always change.

[Cpv17]

GFS still in favor of the more southern track.

I forget which storm it was but it was probably 10-15 years ago but some storm was in the central Gulf and the Euro had it going to Texas and the GFS to Florida and the GFS was right. Man I don’t ever think I’ll forget that lol

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS still in favor of the more southern track.

It’s hard to ignore the consistency. Wonder if the gefs will follow suit like the 18z gefs did

[IcyTundra]

You can see the GFS has the storm make a northward bend close to landfall but it is starting so far south in the Bay of Campeche so it doesn't get that far north.

[starsfan65]

You can see the GFS has the storm make a northward bend close to landfall but it is starting so far south in the Bay of Campeche so it doesn't get that far north.

There is 8 days until it moves in, it will change a lot until then.

[grapealcoholic]

GEFS trending more north

[psyclone]

GFS still in favor of the more southern track.

I forget which storm it was but it was probably 10-15 years ago but some storm was in the central Gulf and the Euro had it going to Texas and the GFS to Florida and the GFS was right. Man I don’t ever think I’ll forget that lol

Debbie 2012.

[Steve]

GFS still in favor of the more southern track.

I forget which storm it was but it was probably 10-15 years ago but some storm was in the central Gulf and the Euro had it going to Texas and the GFS to Florida and the GFS was right. Man I don’t ever think I’ll forget that lol

Charley for sure was one of them.

[SoupBone]

GFS still in favor of the more southern track.

It’s hard to ignore the consistency. Wonder if the gefs will follow suit like the 18z gefs did

Like I posted in the other thread, if the GFS is wrong, it will be a spectacular bust for it. It has been very consistent with this one. We'll see in a week or so.