Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean (Is Invest 99L)

[IcyTundra]

GFS still in favor of the more southern track.

It’s hard to ignore the consistency. Wonder if the gefs will follow suit like the 18z gefs did

Like I posted in the other thread, if the GFS is wrong, it will be a spectacular bust for it. It has been very consistent with this one. We'll see in a week or so.

https://i.imgur.com/zzrfqIQ.png

True if the GFS is wrong it will be one of its worst busts in recent years.

[SoupBone]

The GEFS is more north and faster too, with a northern Mexico landfall.

[grapealcoholic]

It's worthless to even post deterministic runs this early, let alone talk about them busting lol

[SoupBone]

It's worthless to even post deterministic runs this early, let alone talk about them busting lol

We're not talking about a 14+ day run fantasy land, we're talking 6 days from now. That's a small enough window to make these discussions legitimate.

[grapealcoholic]

It's worthless to even post deterministic runs this early, let alone talk about them busting lol

We're not talking about a 14+ day run fantasy land, we're talking 6 days from now. That's a small enough window to make these discussions legitimate.

Part of which includes resolving a monsoon trough

[SoupBone]

It's worthless to even post deterministic runs this early, let alone talk about them busting lol

We're not talking about a 14+ day run fantasy land, we're talking 6 days from now. That's a small enough window to make these discussions legitimate.

Part of which includes resolving a monsoon trough

No one's suggesting this is an easy forecast, I'm just responding to your "worthless" comment. I've been posting about this one "system" for almost a week or so now, I'm invested in it.

[Rgv20]

0zGEFS are concentrated mostly between Tampico and Tex/Mex Border with 2 members up around Houston.

FWIW 0zUKMET never really develops it as it keeps it over land just barely getting in the the Southern BOC.

[SoupBone]

0zGEFS are concentrated mostly between Tampico and Tex/Mex Border with 2 members up around Houston.

FWIW 0zUKMET never really develops it as it keeps it over land just barely getting in the the Southern BOC.

[ROCK]

GFS still in favor of the more southern track.

I forget which storm it was but it was probably 10-15 years ago but some storm was in the central Gulf and the Euro had it going to Texas and the GFS to Florida and the GFS was right. Man I don’t ever think I’ll forget that lol

Charley for sure was one of them.

Yea Charley was one that made the weakness before the the high built in behind it. I remember that one for sure. Oh hey Steve

[ROCK]

The 0Z Euro in a few hours will clear all of this up!!!

[Ubuntwo]

2. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a
broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea later
this week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be
favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could
form by the end of the week while the system moves
west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[SoupBone]

The 0Z Euro in a few hours will clear all of this up!!!

No doubt.

I was going to stay up, but I don't think I will.

[Hammy]

Euro shows an open wave, so we have three completely different solutions--though worth noting the model had a tropical wave for Grace 72h before it was a hurricane.

[SoupBone]

Euro shows an open wave, so we have three completely different solutions--though worth noting the model had a tropical wave for Grace 72h before it was a hurricane.

https://i.imgur.com/FazWhVA.png

You jumped the gun a little. It's starting to consolidate right before landfall, south of Matagora Bay.

[IcyTundra]

Euro doubles down on the Texas solution…. It will be interesting to see what the euro ensembles say but I’m not staying up for that

[Clearcloudz]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1430035335497625616

[Shell Mound]

Euro doubles down on the Texas solution…. It will be interesting to see what the euro ensembles say but I’m not staying up for that

I'm betting that whatever forms will be stronger than whatever EPS shows.

[cycloneye]

06z GFS more north.

[cycloneye]

An active tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean.
Its axis is along 69W and extends from Dominican Republic to
western Venezuela. The wave is producing scattered showers and
thunderstorms, particularly from 10N-15N between 61W-73W. This
convective activity is affecting the Windward Islands. The wave
is also helping to induce scattered moderate to strong convection
over western Venezuela. A broad area of low pressure is expected
to form along the wave axis over the southwestern Caribbean Sea
later this week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast
to be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form by the end of the week while the system moves west-
northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. This system has also a medium chance of tropical cyclone
formation through 5 days according to the latest Tropical Weather
Outlook.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days from a tropical wave
currently located over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low,
and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend
while the system moves northwestward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.