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Yeah some waning support from the EPS for this system. I think we'll be entering the long awaited lull of EPAC activity soon with the Atlantic going off.
Minimal EPS support though. Need something cranking soon to get ACE back up to Climo. We're about to fall below climo despite the high number of systems and decent amount of hurricanes.
45 day EPS. I guess there’s a small window for something around September 10 but not as aggressive as the GFS suggests. Late September/early October remains the next window for significant activity.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Thu Sep 2 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. An area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development of the system thereafter as it moves west-northwestward away from southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Fri Sep 3 2021
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. An area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week off the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and the system could become a tropical depression around midweek as it moves west-northwestward or northwestward. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Yellow Evan wrote:12z ECMWF doesn’t show much and it’s probably right.
Development is possible. The ECMWF shows a small short-lived rising air cell over the east Pacific from September 6 to 12. Something could form from that.
Last edited by AlphaToOmega on Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.