2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/VMtZ2wR.gif

Wow..

A bit of a SW trend on this 00z EPS run.

[Shell Mound]

It seems as though this is the real deal and it could be big...

[Shell Mound]

https://i.imgur.com/VMtZ2wR.gif

EC showing a westbound, deepening CV hurricane at the end of August

[kevin]

https://i.imgur.com/VMtZ2wR.gif

Wow..

A bit of a SW trend on this 00z EPS run.

https://i.postimg.cc/g2wFMbb5/0-A3-AADEF-3-A14-4712-842-B-6-E397-C1007-ED.png

Here comes the wall of terror... This could indeed be a big one. Hopefully this one recurves, but it does seem to have just the required elements to become a major threat to the East Coast. The only good thing is that it's still at +312.

[cycloneye]

Only two days until NHC begins to mention it in the TWO unless it dissapears from the models. From the Eastern Caribbean islands our friends are watching and waiting.

[aspen]

Not only is the Euro continuing to show the Cape Verde long-tracker, but the system behind it that first appeared in yesterday’s 12z CMC run is shown in today’s 00z Euro (and 00z CMC too).

[Iceresistance]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

0z Models

Caribbean system

Model Uncertainty has increased yet again as Coastal Texas is now under the area of uncertainty
0z GFS is still a BoC Tropical Storm into Mexico
0z CMC is similar to the 0z GFS, except it's further south into Veracruz
Now this is where the Uncertainly gets into Texas . . .
0z ICON has this as a ~978 MB Hurricane into Houston
0z Euro is surprisingly similar to the 0z ICON, even though it's weaker (As a ~995 MB Tropical Storm) & is closer to Corpus Christi

Central Atlantic System

0z GFS gets strong as a ~958 MB Hurricane before being scooped up by a incoming trough
0z ICON is similar to the GFS, except it's slightly weaker & little further west
0z CMC does not like this system very much . . .
0z Euro has picked up this system, strengthens it into a ~985 MB Hurricane & is further east compared to the GFS & ICON models

[tolakram]

GFS inching north

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... Wow lots going on!!! Take away is there will likely be a lot of activity for these models to resolve, so I wouldn't focus on a track idea beyond 5 days...

Also, how many weeks in a row when you run the GFS is there a system developing in the EPAC... Nearly every run!!!

[toad strangler]

https://i.imgur.com/BGfBPZe.gif

06z GFS... Wow lots going on!!! Take away is there will likely be a lot of activity for these models to resolve, so I wouldn't focus on a track idea beyond 5 days...

Beyond 3 days

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/BGfBPZe.gif

06z GFS... Wow lots going on!!! Take away is there will likely be a lot of activity for these models to resolve, so I wouldn't focus on a track idea beyond 5 days...

Also, how many weeks in a row when you run the GFS is there a system developing in the EPAC... Nearly every run!!!

Looks like the end of that run has us up to either Mindy or Nicholas, I can't really tell...

[chaser1]

2nd Half of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season brought to you by Depends; "added protection during busy times"

[SFLcane]

[aspen]

The CMC sure is living up to its nickname of “constantly making cyclones”. It has been remarkably consistent with its solution of five named storms forming within the next 10 days, all of which have appeared in other models too.

Ida forms from 97L in the subtropics on Thursday or Friday, and Julian forms from soon-to-be-99L in the WCar. Both of these have unanimous model support.

Kate forms in the MDR from a wave that makes splashdown on August 30th or August 31st, developing within 2 days. The GFS has shown it occasionally, but the Euro and EPS are by far the most aggressive and consistent with it.

Larry comes right on the heels of Kate, with the precursor wave making splashdown on September 2nd. It also has some Euro/EPS support, and I think the GFS tried to develop it instead of Kate on one run.

Mindy starts forming in the SWCar on September 3rd-4th. This is the long-range Caribbean system the GFS has been forecasting for over a week at this point.

[AutoPenalti]

https://i.postimg.cc/WbybdpwY/E8-ED501-F-65-E0-4-B3-D-86-AA-0-DA36-B165-BD9.gif

According to that, anything that even gets going even past the MDR is most likely to be pulled out.

[Shell Mound]

https://i.postimg.cc/WbybdpwY/E8-ED501-F-65-E0-4-B3-D-86-AA-0-DA36-B165-BD9.gif

According to that, anything that even gets going even past the MDR is most likely to be pulled out.

The absence of ridging during peak season could allow the CONUS to escape high-end hurricane impacts, given that most of its Category-4+ landfalls were associated with storms that formed in the MDR during August/September. Of the thirty Category-4+ hurricanes to strike the CONUS since 1851, fully twenty (two-thirds or 67%) became depressions or stronger in the MDR. So if the upcoming pattern favours OTS, the the U.S. is almost certain to escape Category-4+ impacts for the remainder of the season. We shall see. Both the EPS and GEFS agree on significant TUTT activity and/or weaknesses over the open Atlantic during the climatological peak of the season.

[aspen]

https://i.postimg.cc/WbybdpwY/E8-ED501-F-65-E0-4-B3-D-86-AA-0-DA36-B165-BD9.gif

According to that, anything that even gets going even past the MDR is most likely to be pulled out.

The absence of ridging during peak season could allow the CONUS to escape high-end hurricane impacts, given that most of its Category-4+ landfalls were associated with storms that formed in the MDR during August/September.

Seeing how the Gulf might be a hot spot again this year and how much ridging has changed already, I wouldn’t be so sure that the CONUS will get lucky this year. I mean it absolutely could — just look at 2010 — but each season since 2016 has found some way to land a significant hurricane strike on the CONUS, even 2020 with its crippled MDR season.

[sma10]

https://i.postimg.cc/WbybdpwY/E8-ED501-F-65-E0-4-B3-D-86-AA-0-DA36-B165-BD9.gif

According to that, anything that even gets going even past the MDR is most likely to be pulled out.

The absence of ridging during peak season could allow the CONUS to escape high-end hurricane impacts, given that most of its Category-4+ landfalls were associated with storms that formed in the MDR during August/September. Of the thirty Category-4+ hurricanes to strike the CONUS since 1851, fully twenty (two-thirds or 67%) became depressions or stronger in the MDR. So if the upcoming pattern favours OTS, the the U.S. is almost certain to escape Category-4+ impacts for the remainder of the season. We shall see. Both the EPS and GEFS agree on significant TUTT activity and/or weaknesses over the open Atlantic during the climatological peak of the season.

"Almost certain to escape ... " is a very poor description of that statistic. Using your own facts, 33% of intense hurricane strikes come from non-MDR genesis. Do you really believe that a 33% chance outcome is an "almost certainty" to not occur? LeBron James career 3 point shooting percentage is approx 33% - would you feel his 3 point shot at the buzzer is "Almost certain to miss"?

[SFLcane]

The ridge is actually stronger on the gfs.

[Iceresistance]

12z Models

GoM System

There is unusual general agreement with the models in the general location where the system makes landfall: SE Texas. But uncertain on how strong the system will get.
12z CMC is the strongest with a landfall near Rockport as a ~971 MB Large Hurricane
12z ICON is more compact & at ~978 MB
12z GFS is the most interesting one, with multiple competing centers & broad circulation, it's likely a strong ~990 MB Tropical Storm when it makes the landfall between Brownsville & Victoria
Except that the 12z Euro wants none of it until it reaches Louisiana

Central Atlantic system

Similar in general location, but strength is somewhat uncertain.
12z GFS has this as a ~988 MB Hurricane before becoming a strong Extratropical Low
12z CMC is stronger, around 973 MB before becoming Post-Tropical
12z ICON is the strongest run, ~954 MB before weakening & becoming Post-Tropical
12z Euro is similar to the GFS in terms of strengthening rate & becomes post-tropical

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.