Bahamas area of interest

[Zonacane]

Not sure if its an ULL or an AEW that hasn't been mentioned, but it looks interesting on IR

[jhpigott]

I was just about to start a thread on this as well. Woke up this morning and saw the satellite. Looks like a broad area of cyclonic turning just east of the Bahamas.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/c ... &length=24

[AlphaToOmega]

This does not seem to have ensemble support from either the GEFS or ECENS.

[Zonacane]

This does not seem to have ensemble support from either the GEFS or ECENS.

They have it moving onshore too quickly to develop it seems. Just something to keep an eye on waiting for the main show to start later this week.

[AutoPenalti]

It's puking out outflow boundaries so it's battling some dry air, otherwise this would probably be a marked area.

[toad strangler]

I saw this earlier but new it was a turd being nobody here was on it yet

[wxman22]

This is the inverted trough the models have been showing getting into the gulf later this week.

[AutoPenalti]

This is the inverted trough the models have been showing getting into the gulf later this week.

Yes, this same wave may interact with future Ida.

[AnnularCane]

It's puking out outflow boundaries so it's battling some dry air, otherwise this would probably be a marked area.

Maybe Pepto Bismol will help?

That does seem to bear a strong resemblance to an African wave. Satellite-wise anyway.

[Zonacane]

This is the inverted trough the models have been showing getting into the gulf later this week.

Looks like the vorticity splits with part of it going NW inland and the rest heading into the gulf

[Category5Kaiju]

Lots of deep layer shear around it currently; it would be surprising to me if it does form, but you never know..

[boca]

Good looking ULL heading towards Florida the east coast can use the rain.

[toad strangler]

Good looking ULL heading towards Florida the east coast can use the rain.

This will be our landfall from the East this year

[boca]

Good looking ULL heading towards Florida the east coast can use the rain.

This will be our landfall from the East this year

I love that answer because either the storms go underneath us or the curve north in the Bahamas.

[Nimbus]

The evening convection converging towards an apparent center gives the illusion of a warm core developing.
Must be an illusion though since there is not much model support.

[Hammy]

The evening convection converging towards an apparent center gives the illusion of a warm core developing.
Must be an illusion though since there is not much model support.

There does seem to be a wave axis there, the southern end of it is visible south of Aklins Island in the Bahamas.

[Stormcenter]

Forget the model support that Is a significant looking
whatever headed toward Florida and then the Gulf.

[jhpigott]

Forget the model support that Is a significant looking
whatever headed toward Florida and then the Gulf.

Organized or not, looks like a lot of weather incoming for the Bahamas and SFLA

https://radars.bahamasweather.org.bs/

[AlphaToOmega]

For the forecast, a surface trough will move into the eastern
Gulf Wed night into Thu morning, bringing fresh E winds.
Otherwise, high pressure pressure will dominate the basin through
Fri, producing mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds. Fresh
winds will pulse west of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight and again
Wed night.

[AlphaToOmega]

This system has a lot of upper level (500 mb) and mid level (700 mb) vorticity associated with it, but it does not have much lower level (850 mb) vorticity.