Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean (Is Invest 99L)

[GCANE]

Looks like the wave will amplify thru the Carib and consolidate around the typical location of the NIC/HON border due to coastal convergence.

Looks like it will have a strong TPW infeed from the EPAC thru Panama.
CAPE doesn't look strong at this point.
Very strong anticyclone is forecast to be NE of this then, closer to Jamaica.

[Shell Mound]

Can almost guarantee this exact evolution will not happen the way the 12z GFS thinks it will happen. This looks pretty bizarre as it approaches Texas. To me, it looks like it's still struggling with which piece of vorticity to focus on as it corrects toward a stronger tropical wave interacting with the gyre farther south.

https://i.imgur.com/M8Mknna.png

Maybe the models are hinting that whatever forms could be larger than any of the other systems that we have seen to date. CAG-type systems tend to become quite large, especially during favourable background states. A larger system would maximise the potential for storm surge and rainfall, especially if it moves fairly slowly. The timing and sequence of upcoming development in the W Caribbean and MDR reminds me somewhat of the Harvey/Irma sequence, though at this point I would not necessarily draw direct comparisons between those systems and the upcoming ones. If I recall correctly, 1961’s Carla also formed from a CAG.

You're right about Carla it formed in a similar setup to this in the SW Carribean. Had a massive windfield with hurricane force wind gusts being felt as far east as Louisiana.

I am definitely concerned that, regardless of organisation, whatever forms is likely to be a sprawling system. Of course, any increase in intensity would further add to the magnitude of hazards, if not range. Even the normally bearish EPS is rather aggressive with this system, and the GEFS is even more so. So in some respects Carla might prove to be analogous, unfortunately, at least in terms of evolution and size, if not intensity. At this point I think South Texas, particularly Corpus Christi, should be ready for a possible hurricane impact, given climatology and favourable conditions over the western Gulf of Mexico. Like Carla, this could be a large, lumbering system, only somewhat farther south.

[Frank P]

Latest vis sat loop on system well south of PR and DR.

[wxman57]

Car's gas tank is full and I'm charging all our batteries. Bought some extra batteries at the grocery store today. Generator was put away after the February freeze with fresh oil and gas drained. Will be ready to go if it heads to the upper TX coast. Watching model runs for the next couple of days won't help much. May not have a good handle on it until Saturday, when it starts to form (or has formed on Friday). Hopefully, it stays down south in MX or south TX (Space-X won't be happy). I would make sure my hurricane kit is in order, Karl (Irak).

[GCANE]

A large negative-tilt trof positioned east of the Bahamas appears to be steering this thru the Yucatan.
Tilt is not as sharp at mid level which may open the possibility of future model runs showing this track more to the Yucatan Channel/
Once in the GoM, a strong ULH is forecast to be over this.

[zal0phus]

With all these models predicting or at least indicating something powerful here, I'm surprised this isn't an invest yet.
Also, if WXMan is prepping already or concerned we know it could be serious.

[SoupBone]

Car's gas tank is full and I'm charging all our batteries. Bought some extra batteries at the grocery store today. Generator was put away after the February freeze with fresh oil and gas drained. Will be ready to go if it heads to the upper TX coast. Watching model runs for the next couple of days won't help much. May not have a good handle on it until Saturday, when it starts to form (or has formed on Friday).

I mean, that only gives a few days notice though. Not great to hear that. Also, you posting this will stir up an ant pile in Houston.

[ColdMiser123]

Euro also focusing on the tropical wave component of the disturbance more compared to 0z.

If that does become the dominant component of this system, it would significantly increase the chances of Texas landfall, but a northern Mexico landfall still couldn't be ruled out.

[Seadootoo]

Car's gas tank is full and I'm charging all our batteries. Bought some extra batteries at the grocery store today. Generator was put away after the February freeze with fresh oil and gas drained. Will be ready to go if it heads to the upper TX coast. Watching model runs for the next couple of days won't help much. May not have a good handle on it until Saturday, when it starts to form (or has formed on Friday). Hopefully, it stays down south in MX or south TX (Space-X won't be happy). I would make sure my hurricane kit is in order, Karl (Irak).

Thanks for the update Wxman!

[IcyTundra]

Filled my car up to a full tank today also restocked on bottled water and some non-perishables. Always better to be overprepared than underprepared and there is enough of a chance this comes to the Upper Texas Coast that I wanted to get out ahead of others who are probably not even thinking about this potential storm right now.

[ColdMiser123]

Euro is extremely far northeast into Louisiana.

[IcyTundra]

Euro is extremely far northeast into Louisiana.

A couple days ago the ICON showed A SE Louisiana hit and the CMC showed a landfall near the TX/LA border a couple days ago too. But yeah this is the furthest NE from either the Euro or GFS.

[IcyTundra]

Euro ensemble will be interesting with the far NE shift from the operational.

[ROCK]

Sat presentation starting to slightly improve this afternoon… hints of broad banding evident on the loops.

saw that also...right along the coast,

[SoupBone]

Anyone have the Euro graphic? Tropical Tidbits is frozen at 120 hours.

[cheezyWXguy]

The CMC ensemble is concerning for the houston area.

[HoustonFrog]

Going to end up in St Charles/Pecan Island like every other storm in the western gulf recently

[ROCK]

Car's gas tank is full and I'm charging all our batteries. Bought some extra batteries at the grocery store today. Generator was put away after the February freeze with fresh oil and gas drained. Will be ready to go if it heads to the upper TX coast. Watching model runs for the next couple of days won't help much. May not have a good handle on it until Saturday, when it starts to form (or has formed on Friday).

I mean, that only gives a few days notice though. Not great to hear that. Also, you posting this will stir up an ant pile in Houston.

lol...got to love this guy. I met him once at a conference. Sharp as a tack.

Shouldn't need notice to prepare. Already should have been done a few months prior.

[IcyTundra]

The CMC ensemble is concerning for the houston area.

Went out and made preparations today early just in case. Don't want to deal with the mass panic that would occur this weekend if the forecast worsens for the Houston area.

[SoupBone]

Car's gas tank is full and I'm charging all our batteries. Bought some extra batteries at the grocery store today. Generator was put away after the February freeze with fresh oil and gas drained. Will be ready to go if it heads to the upper TX coast. Watching model runs for the next couple of days won't help much. May not have a good handle on it until Saturday, when it starts to form (or has formed on Friday).

I mean, that only gives a few days notice though. Not great to hear that. Also, you posting this will stir up an ant pile in Houston.

lol...got to love this guy. I met him once at a conference. Sharp as a tack.

Shouldn't need notice to prepare. Already should have been done a few months prior.

I'm just referring to businesses and other entities that might evacuate. Not a lot of time for those decisions to be made if the system forms on Saturday and makes landfall on Monday-ish.

12Z Euro...so much for "consistency" with any of these models.