2021 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[supercane4867]

Next wave after 98L has massive potential

[Stormybajan]

Hello there 12z euro

[cycloneye]

[sma10]

10 day CMC and Euro in remarkable agreement with two developing systems moving west in tandem

[aspen]

Yet another Euro run with Kate and Larry in the MDR. If the Euro is right about the ridging and Kate’s track, it could become a significant threat to the Windward and Leeward Islands. Even if it tries to get further north, the islands will probably still have to watch out.

The precursor to Kate will probably get tagged by the NHC in a TWO by Thursday or Friday, within 5 days of when the models show it making splashdown.

[SFLcane]

[cycloneye]

:crazyeyes:

https://i.postimg.cc/FRFd3jTg/C3-FF16-C ... 26-F18.gif

Look at the ridge nosing west.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1430244065967329282

[toad strangler]

Oh Boy SFLcane bringing out the googly eyes

[AutoPenalti]

:crazyeyes:

https://i.postimg.cc/FRFd3jTg/C3-FF16-C2-BBC9-4-AC2-AFD4-A4-C46-E626-F18.gif

I know it's 240 but is it being sheared on the last frame?

[Kingarabian]

:crazyeyes:

https://i.postimg.cc/FRFd3jTg/C3-FF16-C2-BBC9-4-AC2-AFD4-A4-C46-E626-F18.gif

It's getting crazy

[Kohlecane]

:crazyeyes:

https://i.postimg.cc/FRFd3jTg/C3-FF16-C2-BBC9-4-AC2-AFD4-A4-C46-E626-F18.gif

That's not something you see frequently, lets see if that consistency keeps going, if so I really feel for the Islands, I know we have a few of members out there what's your takes on this set up with the ridge and storms, Texas don't hold back on this thread recently

[ElectricStorm]

The Euro actually develops something that hasn't formed yet? Am I dreaming?

It's about dang time it doesn't wait until the storm forms to show it

[Teban54]

I'm actually starting to miss 2020 when models would repeatedly show nothing until a storm is already forming.

[Cpv17]

The Euro actually develops something that hasn't formed yet? Am I dreaming?

It's about dang time it doesn't wait until the storm forms to show it

Exactly!

[Hammy]

Why is the GFS seemingly incapable of showing a tropical cyclone in the Atlantic MDR? It has two small surges of wind and an elongated trough in the same timeframe as the Euro/Canadian show tropical storms.

[Iceresistance]

I don't know what to say aside this from the 18z GFS

[Steve]

I don't know what to say aside this from the 18z GFS

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_wind_scus_28.png

Say, ‘Strong Cat 3’

[toad strangler]

I'm with wxman57, eye candy until something closes off. BUT, it's certainly that #climo time of year for this to happen in this part of the basin. I just wouldn't in any way what-so-ever focus on even a general area along the coast.

[IcyTundra]

I'm with wxman57, eye candy until something closes off. BUT, it's certainly that #climo time of year for this to happen in this part of the basin. I just wouldn't in any way what-so-ever focus on even a general area along the coast.

The takeaway is that conditions are quite favorable for intensification, but at this point there is no telling where it would go. Could be anywhere from Mexico all the way to Louisiana.