Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean (Is Invest 99L)

[grapealcoholic]

Thinking about it, this is like the perfect setup if some pieces come together

[IcyTundra]

I wonder what it would take for this to become an Invest already…

This wave is expected to create a new area of low pressure when it interacts with a Kelvin Wave in a few days. This is probably why it hasn’t been tagged as an invest yet, but once the new low forms, then it’ll become the dreaded 99L.

What is so special about 99L?

It's an old running joke from the 2016 hurricane season when there was an Invest 99L that took like 2 weeks to develop it ended up becoming Hermine and made landfall in Florida.

[wxman57]

Looks like I will be staying up late for the 00z runs for the foreseeable future.....

I sure won't. Doesn't matter what the models show tonight or tomorrow. Maybe by Thursday/Friday when something starts to spin up.

[IcyTundra]

Looks like I will be staying up late for the 00z runs for the foreseeable future.....

I sure won't. Doesn't matter what the models show tonight or tomorrow. Maybe by Thursday/Friday when something starts to spin up.

You're probably right models are going to have a hard time before we actually see something develop.

[ROCK]

Looks like I will be staying up late for the 00z runs for the foreseeable future.....

I sure won't. Doesn't matter what the models show tonight or tomorrow. Maybe by Thursday/Friday when something starts to spin up.

I am going to just to re-live 16yrs on 2K.

[SoupBone]

Looks like I will be staying up late for the 00z runs for the foreseeable future.....

I sure won't. Doesn't matter what the models show tonight or tomorrow. Maybe by Thursday/Friday when something starts to spin up.

And when a professional meteorologist says this, you know no one has a clue where this is going.

[wxman57]

Looks like I will be staying up late for the 00z runs for the foreseeable future.....

I sure won't. Doesn't matter what the models show tonight or tomorrow. Maybe by Thursday/Friday when something starts to spin up.

You're probably right models are going to have a hard time before we actually see something develop.

It could spin up by Nicaragua, or just south of Cuba. We won't have a good idea where it starts to spin up until maybe Thursday. Where it eventually goes may depend on where development occurs. I certainly won't lose any sleep over it tonight. One more day off tomorrow.

[AerospaceEng]

18Z ICON is almost an identical track to 12Z, but 4mb stronger (995) at the end of the 18Z run. Looks to be heading for middle Texas coast. Next up GFS!

[grapealcoholic]

GFS coming in much stronger with the northern lobe. Doesn't even develop EPAC system anymore

Also assuming that EPAC system doesn't form, there will be a lot of leftover vorticity for another system possibly a week later

[SoupBone]

GFS coming in much stronger with the northern lobe. Doesn't even develop EPAC system anymore

Yeah this is all kinds of questionable.

[grapealcoholic]

GFS coming in much stronger with the northern lobe. Doesn't even develop EPAC system anymore

Yeah this is all kinds of questionable.

Megachonk inbound

[IcyTundra]

12Z and 18Z GFS are both a mess with two competing centers and they can't seem to chose one or the other.

[ElectricStorm]

Well the EPAC system is going to form at this point so this run is automatically suspect

[SoupBone]

If an invest it literally defined as an area of interest/investigation, why hasn't this wave been tagged yet? Is it required to have some level of circulation first?

At 90 hours, it takes a lunge to the NW going over the tip of the Yucatan heading NW.

[IcyTundra]

If an invest it literally defined as an area of interest/investigation, why hasn't this wave been tagged yet? Is it required to have some level of circulation first?

At 90 hours, it takes a lunge to the NW going over the tip of the Yucatan heading NW.

I'm hoping it gets designated tomorrow so we can get the HWRF and HMON running on it. I should be careful what I wish for though as the HWRF and HMON could add even more uncertainty with the model spread.

[SoupBone]

So the GFS is playing "fujiwara" with itself on this system again, developing two different centers competing with each other. It's also headed NW/N on this run.

What a mess.

[Ubuntwo]

Looks like the GFS is correcting? Big north shift on the 12z.

[cheezyWXguy]

Looks like the GFS is correcting? Big north shift on the 12z.

This looks bad.

[IcyTundra]

GFS is blowing it up in the Gulf this run.... The only thing we can take away from this run is that conditions should be favorable in the gulf for intensification.

[Ubuntwo]

Invest 99L has been designated.