ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 99, 2021082500, , BEST, 0, 119N, 690W, 20, 1006, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This one could be quite the trouble maker if the models are to be believed.

[Nederlander]

This one could be quite the trouble maker if the models are to be believed.

Yeah, and a track towards Texas = longer time over the warmest water in the Atlantic basin… upper 80’s

[ElectricStorm]

This is gonna be a nightmare if the northern part wins out and gets into the gulf. The only things I can see that may limit it are:
1) If 95E becomes a strong hurricane, it may limit 99L's potential a bit, but considering how the EPAC season has been going so far, I'm not sure how strong 95E is going to get, and I wouldn't be surprised if it stays relatively weak.
2) If the southern part ends up winning out and developing, it won't have as much time over the gulf, but after what we just saw with Grace, it could still get strong.

Overall it looks like this one's going to have a good chance to explode in the gulf and I'm very concerned. Still a few days to see what happens of course.

[Kingarabian]

Fnmoc Is a good source from the Navy. ATCF comming shortly.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi

Yeah they sometimes go ahead of ATCF but 99L should be in soon.

[aspen]

The infamous 99L returns and could produce quite the infamous storm.

Over the last several days, models have trended away from a CAG-like setup, and now most show the wave vorticity (the northern lobe) becoming dominant. That would result in a right-shifted track, possibly through the Yucatán Channel, and a more compact system prone to intensification. We’ll have to see what happens when the AEW and Kelvin Wave begin to interact on Thursday/Friday.

[Woofde]

It's pretty crazy that there is real potential for this to become the 2nd major hurricane in the Gulf. We barely have entered peak season.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1430303700589948933

[Category5Kaiju]

It's pretty crazy that there is real potential for this to become the 2nd major hurricane in the Gulf. We barely have entered peak season.

Yeah, I have a feeling if that does occur then we could be looking at a season with a high MH count in the end, like 6-7 majors. And who knows if we could experience the unforeseen and beat 7 majors? We will see though, but if some of these models are to be believed, then we could really see multiple major hurricanes within the next half a month or so

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave
currently located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for development of the low
if it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form late
this week or this weekend while the system moves northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea, across the Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico, and into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Clearcloudz]

The infamous 99L returns and could produce quite the infamous storm.

Over the last several days, models have trended away from a CAG-like setup, and now most show the wave vorticity (the northern lobe) becoming dominant. That would result in a right-shifted track, possibly through the Yucatán Channel, and a more compact system prone to intensification. We’ll have to see what happens when the AEW and Kelvin Wave begin to interact on Thursday/Friday.

My understanding, of the runs w/o balloon data, 6Z is weaker than 18Z because at 18Z there are more aircraft in the air sending AMDAR/ACARS data at 18Z than 6Z.

[galaxy401]

This finally got designated. Sounds like it can cause a lot of trouble. Sure sign we are now in peak season with 3 invests.

[SoupBone]

Where do I sign up for the paid version of the Euro? I want to see the 18Z.

[JaxGator]

If the 18z GFS run would come to pass, that would be bad for Corpus Christi, and San Antonio with Houston and Galveston in the right front quadrant. In San Antonio’s case, a hurricane plus record snowfall in the same year is interesting.

[toad strangler]

Where do I sign up for the paid version of the Euro? I want to see the 18Z.

Weatherbell??

[Cpv17]

I’m in Wharton County. I don’t want anything to do with that run of the GFS. I think that would give me sustained hurricane force winds. No thanks!!

[Iceresistance]

Where do I sign up for the paid version of the Euro? I want to see the 18Z.

Windy Premium on Windy.com has that feature

[tolakram]

Where do I sign up for the paid version of the Euro? I want to see the 18Z.

weather.us is what I'm trying this year.

[cycloneye]

This is very important.

 https://twitter.com/DrRickKnabb/status/1430318070606749699

[SoupBone]

Where do I sign up for the paid version of the Euro? I want to see the 18Z.

Weatherbell??

I don't know if they have it or not.