Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean (Is Invest 99L)

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cycloneye
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#221 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:44 pm

FYI= This wave has not been tagged yet as Invest 99L. When it is up you will know fast.
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#222 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:46 pm

cycloneye wrote:FYI= This wave has not been tagged yet as Invest 99L. When it is up you will know fast.

Shows up as 99L on FNMOC, but for whatever reason not in ATCF yet.
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#223 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:47 pm

ROCK wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:Harvey is that you?

https://i.imgur.com/GA30Oom.png


It's about 40-50 east of where Harvey made landfall but yeah the track is pretty similar.


30-40 miles can mean a lot if you live on the west side of Galveston Bay. That wind field is huge, IKE like.


Oh trust me I know Kemah and Seabrook would not have a fun time with all of that surge plus sustained TS force winds with gusts higher.
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#224 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:47 pm

Ubuntwo wrote:
cycloneye wrote:FYI= This wave has not been tagged yet as Invest 99L. When it is up you will know fast.

Shows up as 99L on FNMOC, but for whatever reason not in ATCF yet.


Do you have the link?
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#225 Postby UTSARoadrunner4 » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:49 pm

ROCK wrote:Models were bound to sniff out the 31C ssts. this is what is foreboding. :eek: . Carla / Harvey / Allen / make a list. :eek:

Should I add ‘99 Bret to this list?
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#226 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:49 pm

I know it's one run, but this crap sucks and would be bad for multiple metro Texas cities like Corpus Christi, Galveston, Houston, San Antonio, etc.
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#227 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:51 pm

At least SSTs have come down some recently in the gulf

Image
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#228 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:52 pm

SoupBone wrote:I know it's one run, but this crap sucks and would be bad for multiple metro Texas cities like Corpus Christi, Galveston, Houston, San Antonio, etc.

One run of the gfs, sure. But the 12z icon and cmc were in nearly the same spot, and the euro was further east. Long way to go to get this sorted out but I don’t like the trends.
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#229 Postby Ubuntwo » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:52 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Ubuntwo wrote:
cycloneye wrote:FYI= This wave has not been tagged yet as Invest 99L. When it is up you will know fast.

Shows up as 99L on FNMOC, but for whatever reason not in ATCF yet.


Do you have the link?

Here it is.
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#230 Postby Kohlecane » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:56 pm

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#231 Postby Nimbus » Tue Aug 24, 2021 5:57 pm

Most of the Global runs are starting to converge on the Texas coastline at 168 hours for the 12 and 18Z runs.
No 99l yet though?
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#232 Postby aspen » Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:04 pm

grapealcoholic wrote:At least SSTs have come down some recently in the gulf

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/gomssta.png

The average is getting dragged down due to Grace’s upwelling in the BoC. However, the rest of the Gulf is still plenty toasty. The decreasing Gulf mean SSTs is quite misleading because SSTs are up to 31C in 99L/Julian’s track.
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#233 Postby Stormybajan » Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:08 pm

Image
Harvey is that you? :double:
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#234 Postby Clearcloudz » Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:10 pm

Image
Image
Last edited by Clearcloudz on Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#235 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:10 pm

Stormybajan wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/RhhPThjB/Gfs-18z-aug3121.png
Harvey is that you? :double:


That thing is a whole lot bigger than Harvey also :eek:
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#236 Postby Category5Kaiju » Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:13 pm

IcyTundra wrote:
Stormybajan wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/RhhPThjB/Gfs-18z-aug3121.png
Harvey is that you? :double:


That thing is a whole lot bigger than Harvey also :eek:


What happens if you combine Harvey with Katrina and Carla? This.
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#237 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:14 pm




What's odd about this run is that the ridge degrades but then builds back in and sends it South and then Southwest. The timing of that will be a huge factor in where this ends up.

I wonder if wxman57 will still get off tomorrow after that run. :lol:
Last edited by SoupBone on Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#238 Postby Clearcloudz » Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:15 pm

SoupBone wrote:



What's odd about this run is that the ridge degrades but then builds back in and sends it South and then Southwest. The timing of that will be a huge factor in where this ends up.


SoupBone the 18Z GEFS Made a huge shift towards TX. I'll post it once the run completes.
Last edited by Clearcloudz on Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#239 Postby Nederlander » Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:15 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Just wow the 18z GFS, shows the high end ceiling of this event.

That sounds like a dangerous dare….
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Re: Tropical Wave over the Central Caribbean

#240 Postby grapealcoholic » Tue Aug 24, 2021 6:20 pm


The way it slows down and winds up right in front of the coast is just vicious
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