ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Ubuntwo]

Where do I sign up for the paid version of the Euro? I want to see the 18Z.

Weatherbell??

I don't know if they have it or not.

Weather.us (cheapest) and weathermodels both have the 6/18z euro.

[cycloneye]

Fnmoc Is a good source from the Navy. ATCF comming shortly.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi

Yeah they sometimes go ahead of ATCF but 99L should be in soon.

ATCF is now up.

[cycloneye]

11.9N - 69.0W.

[SoupBone]

11.9N - 69.0W.

https://i.imgur.com/kcCImXT.png

So is that where they will initialize models?

[cycloneye]

11.9N - 69.0W.

https://i.imgur.com/kcCImXT.png

So is that where they will initialize models?

Well is not the models thread but from that position the Bam models begin.

[Sciencerocks]

[beoumont]

It's about time for another Carla, don't ya think?

[BobHarlem]

Interesting Forecast discussion from NWS Corpus Christi

The long term forecast gets rather...complicated. We kick off the
extended with the upper ridge slowly shifting off to the northeast.
This will open the door for an inverted trough to slide across the
Gulf while bringing some deeper moisture into the region. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily as we
head into the weekend.

All eyes will be on the tropics over the course of the weekend. The
NHC is currently monitoring an area of potential development (60%
chance) over the Caribbean. This feature is expected to develop into
a low pressure system while heading into the SW Gulf by Sunday. The
aforementioned ridge looks to weaken Saturday and Sunday as an upper
level shortwave dips across the Northern Plains. This would provide
a window for this disturbance to move northwest across the Gulf.
Recent runs of the GFS/CMC/ICON are all steering this system towards
the Middle Texas coast. With that said, the recent ECMWF take it to
the Louisiana cost so there is still some spread with this system.
Track and intensity will be narrowed in over the next several days.

Regardless of the eventual track, deep tropical moisture will arrive
late this weekend with PWATs skyrocketing to the 2.7-2.9" range.
This will allow for widespread showers and thunderstorms with
locally heavy rainfall possible. As expected, models are trending
towards a heavy rainfall event but we can`t pin down any numbers at
this time as it will be heavily dependent on the track. In addition
to the heavy rainfall, we can expect an increase in our rip current
and coastal flooding threats as hazardous conditions develop over
our waters.

Taking a quick look at temperatures, we will stay warm through the
weekend with heat indices generally in the 105-109 range. Increasing
rain chances/cloud cover this weekend will result in temps a few
degrees cooler heading into early next week.

REMINDER: it is never too early to prepare as we head into the peak
of Hurricane Season. All are urged to stay alert and keep up with
the latest information in regards to the tropics at NHC.noaa.gov

[grapealcoholic]

It's about time for another Carla, don't ya think?

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XYVFLkLd/Carla.png [/url]free image sharing

Got a feeling Louisiana isn't quite out of the woods yet

[IcyTundra]

It's about time for another Carla, don't ya think?

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/XYVFLkLd/Carla.png [/url]free image sharing

Got a feeling Louisiana isn't quite out of the woods yet

They sure aren't.

[SoupBone]

For those that are curious, the Yucatan Peninsula offers little to no elevation to disrupt an inner core.

[Iceresistance]

For those that are curious, the Yucatan Peninsula offers little to no elevation to disrupt an inner core.

https://i.imgur.com/7PetA8k.jpeg

Hurricane Grace just the week before demonstrated this . . .

[SconnieCane]

For those that are curious, the Yucatan Peninsula offers little to no elevation to disrupt an inner core.

https://i.imgur.com/7PetA8k.jpeg

Hurricane Grace just the week before demonstrated this . . .

I feel like Wilma 2005 weakened rather substantially over the Yucatan...but it slowed and meandered over land for some time, correct? It had also already come down quite a bit from its 882 mb peak by the time of landfall, and it was still able to re-intensify into a strong Cat. 3 for the Florida landfall, with some help from a favorable trough interaction.

[cheezyWXguy]

For those that are curious, the Yucatan Peninsula offers little to no elevation to disrupt an inner core.

https://i.imgur.com/7PetA8k.jpeg

Hurricane Grace just the week before demonstrated this . . .

I feel like Wilma 2005 weakened rather substantially over the Yucatan...but it slowed and meandered over land for some time, correct? It had also already come down quite a bit from its 882 mb peak by the time of landfall, and it was still able to re-intensify into a strong Cat. 3 for the Florida landfall, with some help from a favorable trough interaction.

True, Wilma spent a lot more time over the peninsula and made landfall during an erc, allowing for further dry air intrusion. Quite a different situation here

[WiscoWx02]

Some food for thought this evening regarding 99L.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1430218354774757386

[NevadaFan18]

[Tweet https://twitter.com/tornadictwx/status/1430369349211197444


[/Tweet]

Definitely don’t like seeing the highest SST values of the GOM right next to the TX-LA coast

[IcyTundra]

Odds are up to 30/70 now.

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western
Caribbean Sea in a couple of days from a tropical wave currently
located over the central Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system
moves northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, near or
across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, and into the western Gulf of
Mexico by Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[grapealcoholic]

Interesting watching the convective outflow right now completely wreck that ULL

[Sciencerocks]

[mrbagyo]

oh wow, Is it October now in the Atlantic?